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Testing the Expectations Hypothesis with Survey Forecasts: The Impacts of Consumer Sentiment and the Zero Lower Bound in an I(2) CVAR

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  • Josh Stillwagon

    (Department of Economics, Trinity College)

Abstract

Monthly interest rate forecasts from nearly 50 major financial institutions are used to examine the expectations hypothesis at the short end of the term structure for the Canadian T-bill market and Libor markets in the US, UK, and Switzerland. Using CVARs, the term premium is found to move inversely with consumer sentiment in all four samples at the 1% level. Extension to the polynomial CVAR also suggests that a fall in the interest rate raises the premium, at least temporarily. This is interpreted as arising from the decreasing upside potential for bond price movements related to the zero lower bound.

Suggested Citation

  • Josh Stillwagon, 2014. "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis with Survey Forecasts: The Impacts of Consumer Sentiment and the Zero Lower Bound in an I(2) CVAR," Working Papers 1401, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:tri:wpaper:1401
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    2. Kim, Joseph H.T. & Li, Johnny S.H., 2017. "Risk-neutral valuation of the non-recourse protection in reverse mortgages: A case study for Korea," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 133-154.
    3. Stephanos Papadamou & Νikolaos A. Kyriazis & Panayiotis G. Tzeremes, 2020. "US non-linear causal effects on global equity indices in Normal times versus unconventional eras," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 381-407, May.
    4. Natalia Ponomareva & Jeffrey Sheen & Ben Zhe Wang, 2019. "The common component of bilateral US exchange rates: to what is it related?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1251-1268, April.
    5. Juselius, Katarina & Stillwagon, Josh R., 2018. "Are outcomes driving expectations or the other way around? An I(2) CVAR analysis of interest rate expectations in the dollar/pound market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 93-105.
    6. Kunze, Frederik & Wegener, Christoph & Bizer, Kilian & Spiwoks, Markus, 2017. "Forecasting European interest rates in times of financial crisis – What insights do we get from international survey forecasts?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 192-205.
    7. Yue-Jun Zhang & Shu-Hui Li, 2019. "The impact of investor sentiment on crude oil market risks: evidence from the wavelet approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(8), pages 1357-1371, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectations hypothesis; survey data; time-varying risk premium; consumer sentiment; zero lower bound; polynomial cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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