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Household Disagreement about Expected Inflation

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  • Fofana, Salomé
  • Patzelt, Paula
  • Reis, Ricardo

Abstract

This paper surveys the major facts from research on disagreement between households on what they expect inflation to be. We document them using figures and correlations that capture: the statistical regularities on the observable drivers of disagreement, the measurement of residual disagreement, the usefulness of disagreement to forecast inflation, the response of disagreement to shocks, the disagreement between households and professionals, and the relation between disagreement, risk, and uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Fofana, Salomé & Patzelt, Paula & Reis, Ricardo, 2024. "Household Disagreement about Expected Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 18956, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18956
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    1. Peter Andrebriq & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 2958-2991.
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    Cited by:

    1. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Pesso, Tom, 2024. "Fiscal policy and inflation: accounting for non-linearities in government debt," Working Paper Series 2996, European Central Bank.
    2. Hie Joo Ahn & Leland E. Farmer, 2024. "Disagreement About the Term Structure of Inflation Expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-084, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

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