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Nelson-Siegel Decay Factor and Term Premia in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Junko Koeda

    (Waseda University. Address: 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8050.)

  • Atushi Sekine

    (Graduate School of Social Sciences, Chiba University)

Abstract

This study examines the two-decade-long low interest rate environment in Japan using the NelsonSiegel yield curve framework emphasizing the role of decay factor. We find that the decay factor has declined particularly after the global financial crisis, pushing down the entire yield curve as well as the conditional variance of bond yield in Japan. The decay factor was very low when BOJ’s yield curve control started in 2016 and remained low with small fluctuations since. Decay factor shocks can be interpreted as long-dated term premium shocks, and these shocks tend to decrease with BOJ’s bond purchases, controlling for other possible factors that affect term premia such as business cycles and economic uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Junko Koeda & Atushi Sekine, 2021. "Nelson-Siegel Decay Factor and Term Premia in Japan," Working Papers 2106, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2106
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    Cited by:

    1. Shigenori Shiratsuka, 2021. "Monetary Policy Effectiveness under the Ultra-Low Interest Rate Environment: Evidence from Yield Curve Dynamics in Japan," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2021-012, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    2. Yoshiyuki Shimai & Naoki Makimoto, 2023. "Multi-period Dynamic Bond Portfolio Optimization Utilizing a Stochastic Interest Rate Model," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(4), pages 817-844, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    decay factor; Nelson Siegel; term premium; yield curve control; Japan; nonlinear state space model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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