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Media sentiment on monetary policy: Determinants and relevance for inflation expectations

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  • Matthieu Picault

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [2022-...] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)

  • Julien Pinter
  • Thomas Renault

Abstract

We construct a new indicator to capture media sentiment about the European Central Bank monetary policy and its relevant environment by analyzing 25,000 articles from five major international newspapers. Using named entity recognition and part-of-speech tagging, we propose a methodology to dissociate the dissemination of official communications of the central bank from the media comments. The resulting (daily) index correlates with some (monthly) standard measures of economic sentiment but reveals idiosyncratic information on monetary policy. Analyzing the determinants of our index, we find that both press conference and inter-meeting communications of the President significantly affect media sentiment. We then show that, controlling for a large range of factors, daily changes in media sentiment have predictive power for financial market inflation expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthieu Picault & Julien Pinter & Thomas Renault, 2022. "Media sentiment on monetary policy: Determinants and relevance for inflation expectations," Post-Print hal-03810447, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03810447
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102626
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://univ-orleans.hal.science/hal-03810447
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    Cited by:

    1. Thang Ngoc Doan & Dong Phu Do & Dat Van Luong, 2023. "Monetary stance and favorableness of the monetary policy in the media: the case of Vietnam," Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(2), pages 111-123, August.
    2. Arndt, Sarah, 2024. "Different Newspapers – Different Inflation Perceptions," Working Papers 0748, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    3. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2023. "Perceived monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    4. Olivier De Bandt & Jean-Charles Bricongne & Julien Denes & Alexandre Dhenin & Annabelle De Gaye & Pierre-Antoine Robert, 2023. "Using the Press to Construct a New Indicator of Inflation Perceptions in France," Working papers 921, Banque de France.
    5. Julien Pinter & Evzen Kocenda, 2021. "Media Treatment of Monetary Policy Surprises and Their Impact on Firms' and Consumers' Expectations," Working Papers IES 2021/30, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2021.
    6. Ardekani, Aref Mahdavi & Bertz, Julie & Bryce, Cormac & Dowling, Michael & Long, Suwan(Cheng), 2024. "FinSentGPT: A universal financial sentiment engine?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    7. Niţoi, Mihai & Pochea, Maria-Miruna & Radu, Ştefan-Constantin, 2023. "Unveiling the sentiment behind central bank narratives: A novel deep learning index," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    8. Chee-Hong Law & Kim Huat Goh, 2024. "A systematic literature review of the implications of media on inflation expectations," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 311-340, May.
    9. Stefan Claus & Massimo Stella, 2022. "Natural Language Processing and Cognitive Networks Identify UK Insurers’ Trends in Investor Day Transcripts," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-18, October.
    10. Szyszko, Magdalena & Rutkowska, Aleksandra & Kliber, Agata, 2022. "Do words affect expectations? The effect of central banks communication on consumer inflation expectations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 221-229.
    11. Hugo Oriola & Matthieu Picault, 2023. "Opportunistic Political Central Bank Coverage: Does media coverage of ECB's Monetary Policy Impacts German Political Parties' Popularity?," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-30, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    12. Glas, Alexander & Müller, Lena, 2023. "Talking in a language that everyone can understand? Clarity of speeches by the ECB Executive Board," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-073, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    13. Linas Jurkšas & Rokas Kaminskas, 2023. "ECB monetary policy communication: does it move euro area yields?," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 29, Bank of Lithuania.
    14. Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2023. "Inflation news coverage, expectations and risk premium," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank communication; European Central Bank; Textual analysis; Inflation expectations; Media sentiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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