IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/moneco/v130y2022icp49-67.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monetary Policy and Bank Equity Values in a Time of Low and Negative Interest Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Ampudia, Miguel
  • Van den Heuvel, Skander J.

Abstract

Does banks’ exposure to interest rate risk change when interest rates are very low or negative? Using a high-frequency event study methodology and intraday data, we find that the effect of surprise interest rate cuts by the ECB on European bank equity values – an effect that is normally positive – has become negative since interest rates in the euro area reached zero and below. This ‘reversal’ was far more pronounced for banks with a more deposit-intensive funding mix. We argue that these results can be explained by the zero lower bound on interest rates on retail deposits.

Suggested Citation

  • Ampudia, Miguel & Van den Heuvel, Skander J., 2022. "Monetary Policy and Bank Equity Values in a Time of Low and Negative Interest Rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 49-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:130:y:2022:i:c:p:49-67
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.05.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393222000733
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.05.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Bats, Joost V. & Giuliodori, Massimo & Houben, Aerdt C.F.J., 2023. "Monetary policy effects in times of negative interest rates: What do bank stock prices tell us?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    3. Kirti, Divya, 2020. "Why do bank-dependent firms bear interest-rate risk?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    4. Claessens, Stijn & Coleman, Nicholas & Donnelly, Michael, 2018. "“Low-For-Long” interest rates and banks’ interest margins and profitability: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PA), pages 1-16.
    5. Florian Heider & Farzad Saidi & Glenn Schepens, 2019. "Life below Zero: Bank Lending under Negative Policy Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(10), pages 3728-3761.
    6. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Ragnar E. Juelsrud & Lawrence H. Summers & Ella Getz Wold, 2019. "Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel," NBER Working Papers 25416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Michiel van Leuvensteijn & Christoffer Kok Sørensen & Jacob A. Bikker & Adrian A.R.J.M. van Rixtel, 2013. "Impact of bank competition on the interest rate pass-through in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(11), pages 1359-1380, April.
    8. Altavilla, Carlo & Brugnolini, Luca & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Motto, Roberto & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2019. "Measuring euro area monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 162-179.
    9. Itamar Drechsler & Alexi Savov & Philipp Schnabl, 2021. "Banking on Deposits: Maturity Transformation without Interest Rate Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1091-1143, June.
    10. Mauricio Ulate, 2021. "Going Negative at the Zero Lower Bound: The Effects of Negative Nominal Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(1), pages 1-40, January.
    11. Itamar Drechsler & Alexi Savov & Philipp Schnabl, 2017. "The Deposits Channel of Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1819-1876.
    12. Peter Hoffmann & Sam Langfield & Federico Pierobon & Guillaume Vuillemey, 2019. "Who Bears Interest Rate Risk?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(8), pages 2921-2954.
    13. Breckenfelder, Johannes & De Fiore, Fiorella & Andrade, Philippe & Karadi, Peter & Tristani, Oreste, 2016. "The ECB's asset purchase programme: an early assessment," Working Paper Series 1956, European Central Bank.
    14. Kashyap, Anil K. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1995. "The impact of monetary policy on bank balance sheets," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 151-195, June.
    15. English, William B. & Van den Heuvel, Skander J. & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2018. "Interest rate risk and bank equity valuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 80-97.
    16. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2020. "The Fed's Response to Economic News Explains the "Fed Information Effect"," CESifo Working Paper Series 8151, CESifo.
    17. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    18. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    19. David Neumark & Steven A. Sharpe, 1992. "Market Structure and the Nature of Price Rigidity: Evidence from the Market for Consumer Deposits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 657-680.
    20. Itamar Drechsler & Alexi Savov & Philipp Schnabl, 2018. "Banking on Deposits: Maturity Transformation without Interest Rate Risk," NBER Working Papers 24582, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Joseph Abadi & Markus Brunnermeier & Yann Koby, 2023. "The Reversal Interest Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(8), pages 2084-2120, August.
    22. Altavilla, Carlo & Boucinha, Miguel & Peydró, José-Luis, 2018. "Monetary policy and bank profitability in a low interest rate environment," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 33(96), pages 531-586.
    23. Claudio Borio & Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann, 2017. "The influence of monetary policy on bank profitability," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 48-63, March.
    24. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    25. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
    26. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    27. Stefan Kerbl & Michael Sigmund, 2016. "From low to negative rates: an asymmetric dilemma," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 32, pages 120-137.
    28. Porcellacchia, Davide, 2021. "Low rates and bank stability: the risk of a tipping point," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 88.
    29. Jens Eisenschmidt & Frank Smets, 2019. "Negative Interest Rates: Lessons from the Euro Area," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Álvaro Aguirre & Markus Brunnermeier & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Transmission Mechanisms and Policy Implications, edition 1, volume 26, chapter 2, pages 013-042, Central Bank of Chile.
    30. Hannan, Timothy H & Berger, Allen N, 1991. "The Rigidity of Prices: Evidence from the Banking Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 938-945, September.
    31. Skander Van den Heuvel, 2006. "The Bank Capital Channel of Monetary Policy," 2006 Meeting Papers 512, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christian Bittner & Alexander Rodnyansky & Farzad Saidi & Yannick Timmer, 2021. "Mixing QE and Interest Rate Policies at the Effective Lower Bound: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 9363, CESifo.
    2. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Kok, Christoffer & Rottner, Matthias, 2023. "Reversal interest rate and macroprudential policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    3. Paul, Pascal, 2023. "Banks, maturity transformation, and monetary policy," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    4. Buchholz, Manuel & Schmidt, Kirsten & Tonzer, Lena, 2020. "Do conventional monetary policy instruments matter in unconventional times?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    5. Koenig, Philipp J. & Schliephake, Eva, 2022. "Bank risk-taking and impaired monetary policy transmission," Working Paper Series 2638, European Central Bank.
    6. Simon H. Kwan & Mauricio Ulate & Ville Voutilainen, 2023. "The Transmission of Negative Nominal Interest Rates in Finland," Working Paper Series 2023-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Bats, Joost V. & Giuliodori, Massimo & Houben, Aerdt C.F.J., 2023. "Monetary policy effects in times of negative interest rates: What do bank stock prices tell us?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    8. Joseph Abadi & Markus Brunnermeier & Yann Koby, 2023. "The Reversal Interest Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(8), pages 2084-2120, August.
    9. Michael S. Barr, 2022. "Why Bank Capital Matters: At the American Enterprise Institute, Washington, D.C. (virtual) December 1st 2022," Speech 95822, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. An Pham Ngoc Nguyen & Thomas Conlon & Martin Crane & Marija Bezbradica, 2024. "Herding Unmasked: Insights into Cryptocurrencies, Stocks and US ETFs," Papers 2407.08069, arXiv.org.
    11. Botta, Alberto & Caverzasi, Eugenio & Russo, Alberto, 2024. "Same old song: On the macroeconomic and distributional effects of leaving a Low Interest Rate Environment," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 552-570.
    12. Van den Heuvel, Skander J., 2021. "Comment on “Low Interest Rates and Risk Incentives for Banks with Market Power,” by Whited, Wu, and Xiao," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 175-179.
    13. Marcel Barmeier, 2022. "The new normal: bank lending and negative interest rates in Austria (Marcel Barmeier)," Working Papers 242, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    14. Nguyen, Thai Vu Hong & Pham, Tra Thi Thu & Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Nguyen, Thanh Cong & Nguyen, Binh Thanh, 2020. "Excess liquidity and net interest margins: Evidence from Vietnamese banks," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    15. Raftis, Achilleas & Karpetis, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Spyromitros, Eleftherios, 2024. "Monetary winds of change: Exploring the link between policy shifts and bank profitability in developed and emerging European markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    16. Koenig, Philipp J. & Schliephake, Eva, 2021. "Bank risk-taking and impaired monetarypolicy transmission," Discussion Papers 42/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Fricke, Daniel & Greppmair, Stefan & Paludkiewicz, Karol, 2024. "Excess reserves and monetary policy tightening," Discussion Papers 05/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Policy, Monetary & Stability, Financial & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas , 2023. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
    19. Sleibi, Yacoub & Casalin, Fabrizio & Fazio, Giorgio, 2023. "Unconventional monetary policies and credit co-movement in the Eurozone," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    20. Aleksander Berentsen & Romina Ruprecht & Hugo van Buggenum, 2023. "On the Negatives of Negative Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-064, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
    22. Pejman Peykani & Mostafa Sargolzaei & Amir Takaloo & Shahla Valizadeh, 2023. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Macroeconomic Variables through Credit and Balance Sheet Channels: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bats, Joost V. & Giuliodori, Massimo & Houben, Aerdt C.F.J., 2023. "Monetary policy effects in times of negative interest rates: What do bank stock prices tell us?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    2. Paul, Pascal, 2023. "Banks, maturity transformation, and monetary policy," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    3. Nimrod Segev & Sigal Ribon & Michael Kahn & Jakob Haan, 2024. "Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Interest Margins: Does Deposit Market Concentration Matter?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 65(2), pages 189-218, June.
    4. Joseph Abadi & Markus Brunnermeier & Yann Koby, 2023. "The Reversal Interest Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(8), pages 2084-2120, August.
    5. Bottero, Margherita & Minoiu, Camelia & Peydró, José-Luis & Polo, Andrea & Presbitero, Andrea F. & Sette, Enrico, 2022. "Expansionary yet different: Credit supply and real effects of negative interest rate policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 754-778.
    6. Present, Thomas & Simoens, Mathieu & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2023. "European bank margins at the zero lower bound," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Wang, Olivier, 2020. "Banks, low interest rates, and monetary policy transmission," Working Paper Series 2492, European Central Bank.
    8. Ampudia, Miguel & Heuvel, Skander Van den, 2018. "Monetary policy and bank equity values in a time of low interest rates," Working Paper Series 2199, European Central Bank.
    9. Grandi, Pietro & Guille, Marianne, 2023. "Banks, deposit rigidity and negative rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Jung, Alexander & Uhlig, Harald, 2019. "Monetary policy shocks and the health of banks," Working Paper Series 2303, European Central Bank.
    11. Cynthia Balloch & Yann Koby & Mauricio Ulate, 2022. "Making Sense of Negative Nominal Interest Rates," Working Paper Series 2022-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. Onofri, Marco & Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2023. "The effectiveness of a negative interest rate policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 16-33.
    13. Jorien Freriks & Jan Kakes, 2021. "Bank interest rate margins in a negative interest rate environment," Working Papers 721, DNB.
    14. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Kok, Christoffer & Rottner, Matthias, 2023. "Reversal interest rate and macroprudential policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    15. Kho, Stephen, 2024. "Deposit market concentration and monetary transmission: evidence from the euro area," Working Paper Series 2896, European Central Bank.
    16. English, William B. & Van den Heuvel, Skander J. & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2018. "Interest rate risk and bank equity valuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 80-97.
    17. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur, 2021. "Combining negative rates, forward guidance and asset purchases: identification and impacts of the ECB’s unconventional policies," Working Paper Series 2564, European Central Bank.
    18. Luis Brandao-Marques & Marco Casiraghi & Gaston Gelos & Gunes Kamber & Roland Meeks, 2021. "Negative Interest Rate Policies: Taking Stock of the Experience So Far," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 22(06), pages 27-32, November.
    19. Itamar Drechsler & Alexi Savov & Philipp Schnabl, 2021. "Banking on Deposits: Maturity Transformation without Interest Rate Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1091-1143, June.
    20. Melanie Klein, 2020. "Implications of negative interest rates for the net interest margin and lending of euro area banks," BIS Working Papers 848, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    negative interest rates; monetary policy; bank profitability; reversal rate; ECB;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:130:y:2022:i:c:p:49-67. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.