IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boe/boeewp/1065.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Battle of the markups: conflict inflation and the aspirational channel of monetary policy transmission

Author

Listed:
  • van der Ploeg, Frederick

    (University of Oxford, University of Amsterdam and CEPR)

  • Willems, Tim

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

Since the post‑Covid rise in inflation has been accompanied by strong wage growth, the distributional conflict between wage and price‑setters (both wishing to attain a certain markup) has regained prominence. We examine how a central bank should resolve a ‘battle of the markups’ when aspired markups are cyclically sensitive, highlighting a new ‘aspirational channel’ of monetary transmission. We establish conditions under which an inflationary situation characterised by inconsistent aspirations requires a reduction in economic activity, to eliminate worker‑firm disagreement over the appropriate level of the real wage. We find that countercyclical markups and/or a flat Phillips curve call for more dovish monetary policy. Estimating price markup cyclicality across 44 countries, we find that monetary contractions are better able to lower inflation when markups are procyclical.

Suggested Citation

  • van der Ploeg, Frederick & Willems, Tim, 2024. "Battle of the markups: conflict inflation and the aspirational channel of monetary policy transmission," Bank of England working papers 1065, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:1065
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2024/battleofthemarkupsconflictinflationandtheaspirationalchannelofmonetarypolicytransmission.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, April.
    2. Jelle Visser, 1998. "Two Cheers for Corporatism, One for the Market: Industrial Relations, Wage Moderation and Job Growth in the Netherlands," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 36(2), pages 269-292, June.
    3. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    4. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 87-155.
    5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    6. Roeger, Werner, 1995. "Can Imperfect Competition Explain the Difference between Primal and Dual Productivity Measures? Estimates for U.S. Manufacturing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(2), pages 316-330, April.
    7. Champagne, Julien & Sekkel, Rodrigo, 2018. "Changes in monetary regimes and the identification of monetary policy shocks: Narrative evidence from Canada," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 72-87.
    8. José Luis Montiel Olea & Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller, 2021. "Local Projection Inference Is Simpler and More Robust Than You Think," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1789-1823, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Choi, Sangyup & Willems, Tim & Yoo, Seung Yong, 2024. "Revisiting the monetary transmission mechanism through an industry-level differential approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Etro, Federico, 2017. "Research in economics and macroeconomics," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 373-383.
    3. W. A. Razzak, 2016. "New Zealand Labor Market Dynamics: Pre- and Post-global Financial Crisis," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 49-79, September.
    4. Endong Wang, 2024. "Structural counterfactual analysis in macroeconomics: theory and inference," Papers 2409.09577, arXiv.org.
    5. Brown, Alessio J.G. & Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2011. "Comparing the effectiveness of employment subsidies," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 168-179, April.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Kee, Hiau Looi & Hoon, Hian Teck, 2005. "Trade, capital accumulation and structural unemployment: an empirical study of the Singapore economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 125-152, June.
    8. Federico Di Pace & Matthias Hertweck, 2019. "Labor Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 274-304, April.
    9. Regis Barnichon & Andrew Figura, 2015. "Labor Market Heterogeneity and the Aggregate Matching Function," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 222-249, October.
    10. Antonella Trigari, 2006. "The Role of Search Frictions and Bargaining for Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 304, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    11. Atsushi Inoue & `Oscar Jord`a & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2023. "Inference for Local Projections," Papers 2306.03073, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    12. Koenig, Felix & Manning, Alan & Petrongolo, Barbara, 2014. "Reservation wages and the wage flexibility puzzle," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60613, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. van Roye, Björn & Wesselbaum, Dennis, 2009. "Capital, endogenous separations, and the business cycle," Kiel Working Papers 1561, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Hibiki Ichiue & Takushi Kurozumi & Takeki Sunakawa, 2013. "Inflation Dynamics And Labor Market Specifications: A Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach For Japan'S Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 273-287, January.
    15. Ghosh, Saurabh & Mazumder, Debojyoti, 2023. "Do NBFCs propagate real shocks?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    16. Julio J. Rotemberg, 2008. "Cyclical Wages in a Search-and-Bargaining Model with Large Firms," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, pages 65-114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Costain, James S. & Reiter, Michael, 2008. "Business cycles, unemployment insurance, and the calibration of matching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1120-1155, April.
    18. Rüdiger Wapler & Daniel Werner & Katja Wolf, 2018. "Active labour market policies in Germany: do regional labour markets benefit?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(51), pages 5561-5578, November.
    19. Yashiv, Eran, 2007. "Labor search and matching in macroeconomics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1859-1895, November.
    20. Régis Barnichon, 2007. "Productivity, Aggregate Demand and Unemployment Fluctuations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0819, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    21. Christian Lumpe & Benjamin Weigert, 2009. "Immigration Policy, Equilibrium Unemployment, and Underinvestment in Human Capital," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 23(1), pages 97-130, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; wage-price dynamics; markups; monetary policy transmission; Taylor principle; determinacy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:1065. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Digital Media Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boegvuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.