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The impact of monetary policy shocks — Do not rule out central bank information effects or economic news

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  • Laumer, Sebastian
  • Morais Santos, Italo

Abstract

This paper reassesses the impact of monetary policy and central bank information shocks while accounting for the influence of economic news. We regress a set of monetary policy surprises on a measure of economic news and incorporate these new instruments into an SVAR model. Furthermore, we distinguish between the two shocks via sign restrictions on the instruments’ impulse response functions. Our findings indicate significantly stronger and more enduring economic effects for monetary policy shocks, while the economic effects of central bank information shocks are weaker, if not vanish entirely. Nevertheless, persistent financial effects prevent us from completely dismissing the existence of central bank information effects. Consequently, it is important to account for both the effects of central bank information shocks and economic news in monetary policy settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Laumer, Sebastian & Morais Santos, Italo, 2024. "The impact of monetary policy shocks — Do not rule out central bank information effects or economic news," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:237:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524001174
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111634
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 87-155.
    2. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
    3. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    4. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Central bank information channel; Economic news;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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