Taking the Cochrane-Piazzesi Term Structure Model Out of Sample: More Data, Additional Currencies, and FX Implications
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1561/104.00000107
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Robert J. Hodrick & Tuomas Tomunen, 2018. "Taking the Cochrane-Piazzesi Term Structure Model Out of Sample: More Data, Additional Currencies, and FX Implications," NBER Working Papers 25092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
References listed on IDEAS
- Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 409-430, November.
- Pericoli, Marcello & Taboga, Marco, 2012.
"Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate,"
International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 42-65.
- Taboga, Marco & Pericoli, Marcello, 2008. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," MPRA Paper 9523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2009. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 699, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Rosen Valchev, 2020.
"Bond Convenience Yields and Exchange Rate Dynamics,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 124-166, April.
- Rosen Valchev, 2017. "Bond Convenience Yields and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 943, Boston College Department of Economics.
- David K. Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris I. Telmer, 2001. "Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 279-304, February.
- Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2014. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 323-337, January.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
- Jotikasthira, Chotibhak & Le, Anh & Lundblad, Christian, 2015. "Why do term structures in different currencies co-move?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 58-83.
- repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:2:p:283-305 is not listed on IDEAS
- Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2012. "Out-of-Sample Predictions of Bond Excess Returns and Forward Rates: An Asset Allocation Perspective," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(10), pages 3141-3168.
- Dagfinn Rime & Andreas Schrimpf & Olav Syrstad, 2017.
"Segmented money markets and covered interest parity arbitrage,"
BIS Working Papers
651, Bank for International Settlements.
- Dagfinn Rime & Andreas Schrimpf & Olav Syrstad, 2017. "Segmented money markets and covered interest parity arbitrage," Working Paper 2017/15, Norges Bank.
- Brandt, Michael W. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2002.
"Simulated likelihood estimation of diffusions with an application to exchange rate dynamics in incomplete markets,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 161-210, February.
- Michael W. Brandt & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2001. "Simulated Likelihood Estimation of Diffusions with an Application to Exchange Rate Dynamics in Incomplete Markets," NBER Technical Working Papers 0274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Robert J. Hodrick, 1983. "Risk Averse Speculation in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis of Linear Models," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 113-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anna Cieslak & Pavol Povala, 2015. "Expected Returns in Treasury Bonds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(10), pages 2859-2901.
- Scott Joslin & Marcel Priebsch & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2014. "Risk Premiums in Dynamic Term Structure Models with Unspanned Macro Risks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(3), pages 1197-1233, June.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014.
"A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix,"
Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-708, May.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jonathan H. Wright, 2011. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1514-1534, June.
- Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2010. "Infrequent Portfolio Decisions: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 870-904, June.
- Eric Ghysels & Casidhe Horan & Emanuel Moench, 2018.
"Forecasting through the Rearview Mirror: Data Revisions and Bond Return Predictability,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 678-714.
- Eric Ghysels & Casidhe Horan & Emanuel Moench, 2012. "Forecasting through the rear-view mirror: data revisions and bond return predictability," Staff Reports 581, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2005.
"In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?,"
Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 371-402.
- Kilian, Lutz & Inoue, Atsushi, 2002. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "In-sample or out-of-sample tests of predictability: which one should we use?," Working Paper Series 195, European Central Bank.
- Gibbons, Michael R. & Ferson, Wayne, 1985. "Testing asset pricing models with changing expectations and an unobservable market portfolio," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 217-236, June.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Charles W. Calomiris & Harry Mamaysky, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Returns: Time-Varying Risk Regimes," NBER Working Papers 25714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Liu, Yan & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2021.
"Reconstructing the yield curve,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1395-1425.
- Yan Liu & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2020. "Reconstructing the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 27266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wilmar Alexander Cabrera-Rodríguez & Daniela Rodríguez-Novoa & Camilo Eduardo Sánchez-Quinto, 2023. "A robust model for the term structure of interest rates: some applications in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1255, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Yung, Julieta, 2021.
"Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
- Julieta Yung, 2014. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 207, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Jing-Zhi Huang & Zhan Shi, 2023. "Machine-Learning-Based Return Predictors and the Spanning Controversy in Macro-Finance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 1780-1804, March.
- Feng Zhao & Guofu Zhou & Xiaoneng Zhu, 2021. "Unspanned Global Macro Risks in Bond Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7825-7843, December.
- Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Ermolov, Andrey, 2021.
"Macro risks and the term structure of interest rates,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 479-504.
- Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Andrey Ermolov, 2016. "Macro Risks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 22839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Andrey Ermolov, 2017. "Macro Risks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Dubiel-Teleszynski, Tomasz & Kalogeropoulos, Konstantinos & Karouzakis, Nikolaos, 2024. "Sequential learning and economic benefits from dynamic term structure models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123659, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Peter Feldhütter & Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen & Philipp Illeditsch, 2018. "Risk Premia and Volatilities in a Nonlinear Term Structure Model [Quadratic term structure models: theory and evidence]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 337-380.
- Andrea Berardi & Michael Markovich & Alberto Plazzi & Andrea Tamoni, 2021. "Mind the (Convergence) Gap: Bond Predictability Strikes Back!," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7888-7911, December.
- Christos Ioannidis & Kook Ka, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Bond Risk Premia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(6), pages 1479-1522, September.
- Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
- Huang, Dashan & Jiang, Fuwei & Li, Kunpeng & Tong, Guoshi & Zhou, Guofu, 2023. "Are bond returns predictable with real-time macro data?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
- Berg, Kimberly A. & Mark, Nelson C., 2018.
"Measures of global uncertainty and carry-trade excess returns,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 212-227.
- Kimberly A. Berg & Nelson Mark, 2017. "Measures of Global Uncertainty and Carry-Trade Excess Returns," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2017_002, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
- P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015.
"Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty,"
SIRE Discussion Papers
2015-71, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Byrne, JP & Cao, S & Korobilis, D, 2016. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 18195, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
- Joseph P. Byrne & Shuo Cao. & Dimitris Korobilis., 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," Working Papers 2015_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 63844, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Nucera, Federico & Valente, Giorgio, 2013.
"Carry trades and the performance of currency hedge funds,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 407-425.
- Federico Nucera & Giorgio Valente, 2013. "Carry Trades and the Performance of Currency Hedge Funds," Working Papers 032013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2012.
"Properties of foreign exchange risk premiums,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 279-310.
- Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2011. "Properties of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums," CEPR Discussion Papers 8503, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lucio Sarno & Paul Schneider & Christian Wagner, 2012. "Properties of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums," Working Paper series 10_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
- Berg, Kimberly A. & Mark, Nelson C., 2018.
"Global macro risks in currency excess returns,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 300-315.
- Kimberly Berg & Nelson C. Mark, 2016. "Global Macro Risks in Currency Excess Returns," Staff Working Papers 16-32, Bank of Canada.
- Kimberly A. Berg & Nelson Mark, 2017. "Global Macro Risks in Currency Excess Returns," NBER Working Papers 23764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Antonio Diez De Los Rios, 2009.
"Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 755-766, June.
- Antonio Diez De Los Rios, 2009. "Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 755-766, June.
- Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2006. "Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?," Staff Working Papers 06-27, Bank of Canada.
- David R. Haab & Thomas Nitschka, 2020.
"Carry trade and forward premium puzzle from the perspective of a safe‐haven currency,"
Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 376-394, May.
- Dr. Thomas Nitschka & David Haab, 2018. "Carry trade and forward premium puzzle from the perspective of a safe-haven currency," Working Papers 2018-17, Swiss National Bank.
- Daniel Borup & Jonas N. Eriksen & Mads M. Kjær & Martin Thyrsgaard, 2024.
"Predicting Bond Return Predictability,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(2), pages 931-951, February.
- Daniel Borup & Jonas N. Eriksen & Mads M. Kjær & Martin Thyrsgaard, 2020. "Predicting bond return predictability," CREATES Research Papers 2020-09, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Mikhail Chernov & Drew Creal, 2023.
"International Yield Curves and Currency Puzzles,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 209-245, February.
- Mikhail Chernov & Drew D. Creal, 2018. "International Yield Curves and Currency Puzzles," NBER Working Papers 25206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chernov, Mikhail & Creal, Drew, 2022. "International yield curves and currency puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 13252, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
More about this item
Keywords
Affine term structure models; Bond and foreign currency risk premiums; Out-of-sample forecasting;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:now:jnlcfr:104.00000107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lucy Wiseman (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nowpublishers.com/ .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.