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How to construct monthly VAR proxies based on daily surprises in futures markets

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  • Kilian, Lutz

Abstract

It is common in applied work to estimate responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news shocks derived from surprise changes in daily futures prices around the date of policy announcements. This requires mapping the daily surprises into a monthly shock that may be used as an external instrument in a monthly VAR model or local projection. The standard approach has been to sum these daily surprises over the course of a given month when constructing the monthly proxy variable, ignoring the accounting relationship between daily and average monthly price data. In this paper, I discuss an alternative approach to constructing monthly proxies from daily surprises that takes account of this link and revisit the question of how to use OPEC announcements to identify news shocks in VAR models of the global oil market. The proposed approach calls into question the interpretation of the identified shock as oil supply news and implies quantitatively and qualitatively different estimates of the macroeconomic impact of OPEC announcements.

Suggested Citation

  • Kilian, Lutz, 2024. "How to construct monthly VAR proxies based on daily surprises in futures markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:168:y:2024:i:c:s0165188924001581
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104966
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    Keywords

    Proxy VAR; IV; Shock aggregation; Time aggregation; Identification; OPEC; Supply news; Storage demand; Futures; Price expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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