IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijc/ijcjou/y2023q2a10.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Central Banks in Parliaments: A Text Analysis of the Parliamentary Hearings of the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolò Fraccaroli

    (Brown University, European Central Bank, University of Rome Tor Vergata)

  • Alessandro Giovannini

    (European Central Bank)

  • Jean-François Jamet

    (European Central Bank)

  • Eric Persson

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

This paper investigates whether parliamentary hearings are effective in holding central banks accountable against their mandates. To this end, it applies text analysis on the hearings of the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve from 1999 to 2019. It finds that central bank objectives play a crucial role in determining the topic of the hearings. It also shows that sentiments are more negative when the distance between inflation and the central bank’s inflation aim increases. These results suggest that parliamentary scrutiny serves its intended purpose. However, topics and sentiment react more to inflationary rather than deflationary deviations of inflation away from target.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolò Fraccaroli & Alessandro Giovannini & Jean-François Jamet & Eric Persson, 2023. "Central Banks in Parliaments: A Text Analysis of the Parliamentary Hearings of the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(2), pages 543-600, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2023:q:2:a:10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb23q2a10.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb23q2a10.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Altavilla, Carlo & Brugnolini, Luca & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Motto, Roberto & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2019. "Measuring euro area monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 162-179.
    2. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
    3. J. De Haan & F. Amtenbrink & S.C.W. Eijffinger, 1999. "Accountability of central banks: aspects and quantification," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 52(209), pages 169-193.
    4. De Pooter, Michiel & Favara, Giovanni & Modugno, Michele & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    5. Fratianni, Michele & von Hagen, Jurgen & Waller, Christopher J, 1997. "Central Banking as a Political Principal-Agent Problem," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 378-393, April.
    6. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    7. Spagnolo, Giancarlo & Frisell, Lars & Roszbach, Kasper, 2008. "Governing the Governors: A Clinical Study of Central Banks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6888, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Michael D Bauer & Aeimit Lakdawala & Philippe Mueller, 2022. "Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(644), pages 1290-1308.
    9. Masciandaro, Donato & Romelli, Davide, 2015. "Ups and downs of central bank independence from the Great Inflation to the Great Recession: theory, institutions and empirics," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 259-289, December.
    10. Stephen Hansen & Michael McMahon, 2016. "Shocking Language: Understanding the Macroeconomic Effects of Central Bank Communication," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Neuhierl, Andreas & Weber, Michael, 2019. "Monetary policy communication, policy slope, and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 140-155.
    12. David Bholat & Stephen Hans & Pedro Santos & Cheryl Schonhardt-Bailey, 2015. "Text mining for central banks," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 33, April.
    13. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    14. Birz, Gene & Lott Jr., John R., 2011. "The effect of macroeconomic news on stock returns: New evidence from newspaper coverage," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2791-2800, November.
    15. Ferrara, Federico M. & Masciandaro, Donato & Moschella, Manuela & Romelli, Davide, 2022. "Political voice on monetary policy: Evidence from the parliamentary hearings of the European Central Bank," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    16. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael & Tong, Matthew, 2019. "The long-run information effect of central bank communication," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 185-202.
    17. Murphy, Emma & Senior, Stephen, 2013. "Changes to the Bank of England," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(1), pages 20-28.
    18. Bianchi, Francesco & Gómez-Cram, Roberto & Kind, Thilo & Kung, Howard, 2023. "Threats to central bank independence: High-frequency identification with twitter," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 37-54.
    19. Matthew Gentzkow & Bryan Kelly & Matt Taddy, 2019. "Text as Data," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 57(3), pages 535-574, September.
    20. Goodhart, Charles & Lastra, Rosa, 2017. "Populism and Central Bank Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 12122, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 6(3), pages 353-398, September.
    22. Iftekhar Hasan & Loretta J Mester, 2008. "Central Bank Institutional Structure and Effective Central Banking: Cross-Country Empirical Evidence," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 50(4), pages 620-645, December.
    23. Sanders, James & Lisi, Giulio & Schonhardt-Bailey, Cheryl, 2018. "Themes and topics in parliamentary oversight hearings: a new direction in textual data analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87624, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    24. Tucker, Paul & Hall, Simon & Pattani, Aashish, 2013. "Macroprudential policy at the Bank of England," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(3), pages 192-200.
    25. Fischer, Stanley, 1995. "Central-Bank Independence Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 201-206, May.
    26. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    27. Grégory Claeys & Mark Hallerberg & Olga Tschekassin, 2014. "European Central Bank accountability- how the monetary dialogue could be improved," Policy Contributions 818, Bruegel.
    28. Ana Carolina Garriga, 2016. "Central Bank Independence in the World: A New Data Set," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 849-868, October.
    29. Anil K. Kashyap & Caspar Siegert, 2020. "Financial Stability Considerations and Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 231-266, February.
    30. Vivien A. Schmidt, 2013. "Democracy and Legitimacy in the European Union Revisited: Input, Output and ‘Throughput’," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 61(1), pages 2-22, March.
    31. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2008_029 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    33. Mr. Fabian Valencia & Mr. Luc Laeven, 2012. "Systemic Banking Crises Database: An Update," IMF Working Papers 2012/163, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Bholat, David & Broughton, Nida & Ter Meer, Janna & Walczak, Eryk, 2019. "Enhancing central bank communications using simple and relatable information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-15.
    35. Lamla, Michael J. & Vinogradov, Dmitri V., 2019. "Central bank announcements: Big news for little people?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 21-38.
    36. Fraccaroli, Nicolò & Giovannini, Alessandro & Jamet, Jean-Francois, 2018. "The evolution of the ECB’s accountability practices during the crisis," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 5.
    37. de Vries, Erik & Schoonvelde, Martijn & Schumacher, Gijs, 2018. "No Longer Lost in Translation: Evidence that Google Translate Works for Comparative Bag-of-Words Text Applications," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 417-430, October.
    38. Frank Smets, 2014. "Financial Stability and Monetary Policy: How Closely Interlinked?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 263-300, June.
    39. Kearney, Colm & Liu, Sha, 2014. "Textual sentiment in finance: A survey of methods and models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 171-185.
    40. Goodhart, Charles & Lastra, Rosa, 2017. "Populism and central bank independence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 85159, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    41. Benjamin Born & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2014. "Central Bank Communication on Financial Stability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(577), pages 701-734, June.
    42. Apel, Mikael & Blix Grimaldi, Marianna, 2012. "The Information Content of Central Bank Minutes," Working Paper Series 261, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    43. Goodhart, Charles & Lastra, Rosa, 2017. "Populism and central bank independence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 83164, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    44. Lorenzo Bini Smaghi & Daniel Gros, 2000. "Open Issues in European Central Banking," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-333-98188-7, October.
    45. Bianchi, Francesco & Gómez-Cram, Roberto & Kind, Thilo & Kung, Howard, 2023. "Threats to central bank independence: High-frequency identification with twitter," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 37-54.
    46. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
    47. David O. Lucca & Francesco Trebbi, 2009. "Measuring Central Bank Communication: An Automated Approach with Application to FOMC Statements," NBER Working Papers 15367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    48. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    49. Collignon, Stefan & Diessner, Sebastian, 2016. "The ECB's monetary dialogue with the European Parliament:efficiency and accountability during the Euro crisis?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67308, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    50. Stefan Collignon & Sebastian Diessner, 2016. "The ECB's Monetary Dialogue with the European Parliament: Efficiency and Accountability during the Euro Crisis?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(6), pages 1296-1312, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alexopoulos, Michelle & Han, Xinfen & Kryvtsov, Oleksiy & Zhang, Xu, 2024. "More than words: Fed Chairs’ communication during congressional testimonies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    2. Fraccaroli, Nicolò & Giovannini, Alessandro & Jamet, Jean-François & Persson, Eric, 2022. "Ideology and monetary policy. The role of political parties’ stances in the European Central Bank’s parliamentary hearings," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Leonardo Gambacorta & Salvatore Polizzi & Alessio Reghezza & Enzo Scannella, 2023. "Do banks practice what they preach? Brown lending and environmental disclosure in the euro area," BIS Working Papers 1143, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Fraccaroli, Nicolò & Giovannini, Alessandro & Jamet, Jean-Francois & Persson, Eric, 2022. "Ideology and monetary policy: the role of political parties’ stances in the ECB’s parliamentary hearings," Working Paper Series 2655, European Central Bank.
    5. Martin Baumgaertner & Johannes Zahner, 2021. "Whatever it takes to understand a central banker - Embedding their words using neural networks," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202130, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Federico M. Ferrara & Donato Masciandaro & Manuela Moschella & Davide Romelli, 2021. "Political Voice on Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Parliamentary Hearings of the European Central Bank," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21159, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    7. Ferrara, Federico M. & Masciandaro, Donato & Moschella, Manuela & Romelli, Davide, 2022. "Political voice on monetary policy: Evidence from the parliamentary hearings of the European Central Bank," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Koop, Christel & Scotto di Vettimo, Michele, 2023. "How do the media scrutinise central banking? Evidence from the Bank of England," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Baumgärtner, Martin & Zahner, Johannes, 2023. "Whatever it takes to understand a central banker: Embedding their words using neural networks," IMFS Working Paper Series 194, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    10. Fraccaroli, Nicolò & Giovannini, Alessandro & Jamet, Jean-Francois & Persson, Eric, 2022. "Does the European Central Bank speak differently when in parliament?," Working Paper Series 2705, European Central Bank.
    11. Philipp Mohl & Gilles Mourre & Sven Langedijk & Martijn Hoogeland, 2021. "Does Media Visibility Make EU Fiscal Rules More Effective?," European Economy - Discussion Papers 155, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fraccaroli, Nicolò & Giovannini, Alessandro & Jamet, Jean-François & Persson, Eric, 2022. "Ideology and monetary policy. The role of political parties’ stances in the European Central Bank’s parliamentary hearings," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Fraccaroli, Nicolò & Giovannini, Alessandro & Jamet, Jean-Francois & Persson, Eric, 2022. "Ideology and monetary policy: the role of political parties’ stances in the ECB’s parliamentary hearings," Working Paper Series 2655, European Central Bank.
    3. Gómez-Cram, Roberto & Grotteria, Marco, 2022. "Real-time price discovery via verbal communication: Method and application to Fedspeak," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 993-1025.
    4. D. Masciandaro, 2019. "What Bird Is That? Central Banking And Monetary Policy In The Last Forty Years," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19127, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    5. Federico M. Ferrara & Donato Masciandaro & Manuela Moschella & Davide Romelli, 2021. "Political Voice on Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Parliamentary Hearings of the European Central Bank," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21159, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    6. Martin Baumgaertner & Johannes Zahner, 2021. "Whatever it takes to understand a central banker - Embedding their words using neural networks," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202130, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    7. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2021. "Monetary policy and financial markets: evidence from Twitter traffic," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21160, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    8. Ferrara, Federico M. & Masciandaro, Donato & Moschella, Manuela & Romelli, Davide, 2022. "Political voice on monetary policy: Evidence from the parliamentary hearings of the European Central Bank," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Istrefi, Klodiana & Odendahl, Florens & Sestieri, Giulia, 2023. "Fed communication on financial stability concerns and monetary policy decisions: Revelations from speeches," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    10. Lin, Jianhao & Mei, Ziwei & Chen, Liangyuan & Zhu, Chuanqi, 2023. "Is the People's Bank of China consistent in words and deeds?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    11. Fadda, Pietro & Hanifi, Rayane & Istrefi, Klodiana & Penalver, Adrian, 2022. "Central Bank Communication of Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 17728, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Donato Masciandaro & Oana Peia & Davide Romelli, 2024. "Central bank communication and social media: From silence to Twitter," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 365-388, April.
    13. Justyna Klejdysz & Robin L. Lumsdaine, 2023. "Shifts in ECB Communication: A Textual Analysis of the Press Conference," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(2), pages 473-542, June.
    14. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli, 2018. "To Be or not to Be a Euro Country? The Behavioural Political Economics of Currency Unions," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1883, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    15. Mikael Apel & Marianna Blix Grimaldi & Isaiah Hull, 2022. "How Much Information Do Monetary Policy Committees Disclose? Evidence from the FOMC's Minutes and Transcripts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1459-1490, August.
    16. Youngjoon Lee & Soohyon Kim & Ki Young Park, 2018. "Deciphering Monetary Policy Committee Minutes with Text Mining Approach: A Case of South Korea," Working papers 2018rwp-132, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    17. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    18. Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Frederik Kurcz & Maria Sole Pagliari, 2022. "Do words hurt more than actions? The impact of trade tensions on financial markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 1138-1159, September.
    19. Parle, Conor, 2022. "The financial market impact of ECB monetary policy press conferences — A text based approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    20. Ahrens, Maximilian & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Mcmahon, Michael & Neely, Christopher J & Yang, Xiye, 2023. "Mind Your Language: Market Responses to Central Bank Speeches," CEPR Discussion Papers 18191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2023:q:2:a:10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bank for International Settlements (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.ijcb.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.