IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/cesptp/hal-03959147.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Media sentiment on monetary policy: Determinants and relevance for inflation expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Matthieu Picault

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [2022-...] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne)

  • Julien Pinter

    (Universidade do Minho = University of Minho [Braga])

  • Thomas Renault

    (UP1 UFR02 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - École d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We construct a new indicator to capture media sentiment about the European Central Bank monetary policy and its relevant environment by analyzing 25,000 articles from five major international newspapers. Using named entity recognition and part-of-speech tagging, we propose a methodology to dissociate the dissemination of official communications of the central bank from the media comments. The resulting (daily) index correlates with some (monthly) standard measures of economic sentiment but reveals idiosyncratic information on monetary policy. Analyzing the determinants of our index, we find that both press conference and inter-meeting communications of the President significantly affect media sentiment. We then show that, controlling for a large range of factors, daily changes in media sentiment have predictive power for financial market inflation expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthieu Picault & Julien Pinter & Thomas Renault, 2022. "Media sentiment on monetary policy: Determinants and relevance for inflation expectations," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03959147, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-03959147
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102626
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richhild Moessner, 2018. "Effects of asset purchases and financial stability measures on term premia in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(43), pages 4617-4631, September.
    2. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2019. "Central bank tone and the dispersion of views within monetary policy committees," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403256, HAL.
    3. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    4. Picault, Matthieu & Renault, Thomas, 2017. "Words are not all created equal: A new measure of ECB communication," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 136-156.
    5. Clément Bortoli & Stéphanie Combes & Thomas Renault, 2018. "Nowcasting GDP Growth by Reading the Newspapers," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 505-506, pages 17-33.
    6. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2007. "The timing of central bank communication," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 124-145, March.
    7. Fraiberger, Samuel P. & Lee, Do & Puy, Damien & Ranciere, Romain, 2021. "Media sentiment and international asset prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Gertler, Pavel & Horvath, Roman, 2018. "Central bank communication and financial markets: New high-frequency evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 336-345.
    9. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    10. Eben Lazarus & Daniel J. Lewis & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2018. "HAR Inference: Recommendations for Practice Rejoinder," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 574-575, October.
    11. Jansen, David-Jan & De Haan, Jakob, 2005. "Talking heads: the effects of ECB statements on the euro-dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 343-361, March.
    12. Juan Angel Garcia & Sebastian Werner, 2018. "Inflation News and Euro Area Inflation Expectations," IMF Working Papers 2018/167, International Monetary Fund.
    13. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Helge Berger & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2011. "Monetary Policy in the Media," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 689-709, June.
    15. Shapiro, Adam Hale & Sudhof, Moritz & Wilson, Daniel J., 2022. "Measuring news sentiment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 228(2), pages 221-243.
    16. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Communication by Central Bank Committee Members: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 509-541, March.
    17. Ambler, Steve & Rumler, Fabio, 2019. "The effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy announcements in the euro area: An event and econometric study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 48-61.
    18. Bennani, Hamza, 2018. "Media coverage and ECB policy-making: Evidence from an augmented Taylor rule," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 26-38.
    19. Jansen, David-Jan & de Haan, Jakob, 2007. "Were verbal efforts to support the euro effective? A high-frequency analysis of ECB statements," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 245-259, March.
    20. Stefano Nardelli & David Martens & Ellen Tobback, 2017. "Between hawks and doves: measuring Central Bank Communication," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Big Data, volume 44, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2008. "The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 175-217, June.
    22. Meredith J. Beechey & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Andrew T. Levin, 2011. "Are Long-Run Inflation Expectations Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area Than in the United States?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 104-129, April.
    23. Kearney, Colm & Liu, Sha, 2014. "Textual sentiment in finance: A survey of methods and models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 171-185.
    24. Matthieu Picault & Thomas Renault, 2017. "Words are not all created equal: A new measure of ECB communication," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03205121, HAL.
    25. Jerome H. Powell, 2018. "Monetary Policy Influences on Global Financial Conditions and International Capital Flows : a speech at \"Challenges for Monetary Policy and the GFSN in an Evolving Global Economy\" Eighth H," Speech 1000, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    26. Eben Lazarus & Daniel J. Lewis & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2018. "HAR Inference: Recommendations for Practice," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 541-559, October.
    27. Peter Tillmann, 2020. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Response of the Yield Curve to Policy Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 803-833, June.
    28. Wilkins, Arjun S., 2018. "To Lag or Not to Lag?: Re-Evaluating the Use of Lagged Dependent Variables in Regression Analysis," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 393-411, April.
    29. Filippo Natoli & Laura Sigalotti, 2018. "Tail Co-movement in Inflation Expectations as an Indicator of Anchoring," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(1), pages 35-71, January.
    30. Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2015. "Self-monitoring or reliance on media reporting: How do financial market participants process central bank news?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 27-37.
    31. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    32. Beaupain, Renaud & Girard, Alexandre, 2020. "The value of understanding central bank communication," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 154-165.
    33. Michael D. Bauer, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and the News," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(2), pages 1-40, March.
    34. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    35. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    36. Böhm, Jiří & Král, Petr & Saxa, Branislav, 2012. "The Czech National Bank's monetary policy in the media," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 341-357.
    37. Gabriela Galati & Steven Poelhekke & Chen Zhou, 2011. "Did the Crisis Affect Inflation Expectations?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 167-207, March.
    38. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7v8fvu0bf08jcoi4epn8cutjm8 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Diego García, 2013. "Sentiment during Recessions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1267-1300, June.
    40. Tobback, Ellen & Nardelli, Stefano & Martens, David, 2017. "Between hawks and doves: measuring central bank communication," Working Paper Series 2085, European Central Bank.
    41. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
    42. Brent Bundick & Andrew Lee Smith, 2018. "Does Communicating a Numerical Inflation Target Anchor Inflation Expectations? Evidence & Bond Market Implications," Research Working Paper RWP 18-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thang Ngoc Doan & Dong Phu Do & Dat Van Luong, 2023. "Monetary stance and favorableness of the monetary policy in the media: the case of Vietnam," Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(2), pages 111-123, August.
    2. Niţoi, Mihai & Pochea, Maria-Miruna & Radu, Ştefan-Constantin, 2023. "Unveiling the sentiment behind central bank narratives: A novel deep learning index," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    3. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2023. "Perceived monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    4. Chee-Hong Law & Kim Huat Goh, 2024. "A systematic literature review of the implications of media on inflation expectations," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 311-340, May.
    5. Stefan Claus & Massimo Stella, 2022. "Natural Language Processing and Cognitive Networks Identify UK Insurers’ Trends in Investor Day Transcripts," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-18, October.
    6. Olivier De Bandt & Jean-Charles Bricongne & Julien Denes & Alexandre Dhenin & Annabelle De Gaye & Pierre-Antoine Robert, 2023. "Using the Press to Construct a New Indicator of Inflation Perceptions in France," Working papers 921, Banque de France.
    7. Julien Pinter & Evzen Kocenda, 2021. "Media Treatment of Monetary Policy Surprises and Their Impact on Firms' and Consumers' Expectations," Working Papers IES 2021/30, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2021.
    8. Linas Jurkšas & Rokas Kaminskas, 2023. "ECB monetary policy communication: does it move euro area yields?," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 29, Bank of Lithuania.
    9. Ardekani, Aref Mahdavi & Bertz, Julie & Bryce, Cormac & Dowling, Michael & Long, Suwan(Cheng), 2024. "FinSentGPT: A universal financial sentiment engine?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    10. Szyszko, Magdalena & Rutkowska, Aleksandra & Kliber, Agata, 2022. "Do words affect expectations? The effect of central banks communication on consumer inflation expectations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 221-229.
    11. Hugo Oriola & Matthieu Picault, 2023. "Opportunistic Political Central Bank Coverage: Does media coverage of ECB's Monetary Policy Impacts German Political Parties' Popularity?," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-30, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    12. Arndt, Sarah, 2024. "Different Newspapers – Different Inflation Perceptions," Working Papers 0748, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    13. Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2023. "Inflation news coverage, expectations and risk premium," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    14. Glas, Alexander & Müller, Lena, 2023. "Talking in a language that everyone can understand? Clarity of speeches by the ECB Executive Board," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-073, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hamza Bennani, 2016. "Media Coverage and ECB Policy-Making: Evidence from a New Index," Working Papers hal-04141572, HAL.
    2. Hamza Bennani, 2016. "Media Coverage and ECB Policy-Making: Evidence from a New Index," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-38, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    3. Bennani, Hamza, 2018. "Media coverage and ECB policy-making: Evidence from an augmented Taylor rule," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 26-38.
    4. Bennani, Hamza & Fanta, Nicolas & Gertler, Pavel & Horvath, Roman, 2020. "Does central bank communication signal future monetary policy in a (post)-crisis era? The case of the ECB," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    5. Martin Baumgaertner & Johannes Zahner, 2021. "Whatever it takes to understand a central banker - Embedding their words using neural networks," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202130, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    7. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2019. "Central bank tone and the dispersion of views within monetary policy committees," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403256, HAL.
    8. Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2021. "The signaling effects of central bank tone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Yin Germaschewski & Jaroslav Horvath & Jiansheng Zhong, 2022. "Oral interventions in the foreign exchange market: evidence from Australia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 2713-2737, June.
    10. Paloviita, Maritta & Haavio, Markus & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha & Vänni, Ilona, 2020. "Reading between the lines : Using text analysis to estimate the loss function of the ECB," Research Discussion Papers 12/2020, Bank of Finland.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2020_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Thang Ngoc Doan & Dong Phu Do & Dat Van Luong, 2023. "Monetary stance and favorableness of the monetary policy in the media: the case of Vietnam," Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(2), pages 111-123, August.
    13. Picault, Matthieu & Renault, Thomas, 2017. "Words are not all created equal: A new measure of ECB communication," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 136-156.
    14. Parle, Conor, 2022. "The financial market impact of ECB monetary policy press conferences — A text based approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7v8fvu0bf08jcoi4epn8cutjm8 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Baumgärtner, Martin & Zahner, Johannes, 2023. "Whatever it takes to understand a central banker: Embedding their words using neural networks," IMFS Working Paper Series 194, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    17. Rodolfo Tomás Da Fonseca Nicolay & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2014. "Comunicação Do Banco Central,Expectativas De Inflação E Profecia Auto-Realizável: Evidências Para Obrasil," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 046, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    18. Stephen Hansen & Michael McMahon, 2016. "Shocking Language: Understanding the Macroeconomic Effects of Central Bank Communication," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Justyna Klejdysz & Robin L. Lumsdaine, 2023. "Shifts in ECB Communication: A Textual Analysis of the Press Conference," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(2), pages 473-542, June.
    20. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7v8fvu0bf08jcoi4epn8cutjm8 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2009. "The communication policy of the European Central Bank: An overview of the first decade," DNB Working Papers 212, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    22. Thiago Cacicedo Cidad & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2016. "Does Central Bank’S Perception Regarding The State Of The Economy Affect Entrepreneurs’ Expectations? Are Entrepreneurs’ Expectations Important For Investment? Empirical Evidence From Brazil," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 035, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    23. Simionescu, Mihaela, 2022. "Econometrics of sentiments- sentometrics and machine learning: The improvement of inflation predictions in Romania using sentiment analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank communication; European Central Bank; Textual analysis; Inflation expectations; Media sentiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-03959147. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.