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Stock-Market Expectations: Econometric Evidence that both REH and Behavioral Insights Matter

Author

Listed:
  • Roman Frydman

    (New York University)

  • Joshua R. Stillwagon

    (Trinity College)

Abstract

Behavioral finance views stock-market investors’ expectations as largely unrelated to fundamental factors. Relying on survey data, this paper presents econometric evidence that fundamentals are a major driver of investors’ expectations. Although expectations are also in part extrapolative, this effect is transient. The paper’s approach underscores the central importance of opening models to structural change and imposing discipline on econometric analysis through specification testing. Our findings support the novel hypothesis that rational market participants, faced with unforeseeable change, base their forecasts on both fundamentals - the focus of the REH approach - and the psychological and technical considerations underlying behavioral finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Frydman & Joshua R. Stillwagon, 2016. "Stock-Market Expectations: Econometric Evidence that both REH and Behavioral Insights Matter," Working Papers Series 44, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    • Handle: RePEc:thk:wpaper:44
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2793421
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Behavioral finance; REH; Knightian uncertainty; survey expectations; structural change; model specification; automated model selection.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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