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The Long and Variable Lags of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated Price Indices

In: Inflation in the COVID Era and Beyond

Author

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  • S. Borağan Aruoba
  • Thomas Drechsel

Abstract

We study how monetary policy affects subcomponents of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI) using local projections. Following a monetary policy contraction, the response of aggregate PCEPI turns significantly negative after over three years. There are stark differences in the timing and magnitude of the responses across price categories, including some prices that show an initially positive response. We discuss theoretical interpretations of our findings and point to useful directions for future theoretical research. We also show how to re-aggregate our cross-sectional estimates and their standard errors, taking into account dependence between different prices using a Seemingly Unrelated Regression approach. Re-aggregation exercises show that changes in expenditure behavior have not accelerated the long-lagged response of inflation to monetary policy.
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Suggested Citation

  • S. Borağan Aruoba & Thomas Drechsel, 2024. "The Long and Variable Lags of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated Price Indices," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation in the COVID Era and Beyond, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:15083
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    Cited by:

    1. Allayioti, Anastasia & Gόrnicka, Lucyna & Holton, Sarah & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2024. "Monetary policy pass-through to consumer prices: evidence from granular price data," Working Paper Series 3003, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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