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Stale forward guidance

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  • Detmers, Gunda-Alexandra
  • Nautz, Dieter

Abstract

Quarterly central bank projections regarding future interest rate decisions may become stale when new information enters the market. Using data from New Zealand, we find the predicted time-varying and state-dependent effects of interest rate projections on market expectations and uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Detmers, Gunda-Alexandra & Nautz, Dieter, 2014. "Stale forward guidance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 358-361.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:124:y:2014:i:3:p:358-361
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2014.06.025
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael D. Bauer, 2012. "Monetary policy and interest rate uncertainty," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue dec24.
    2. Richhild Moessner & William R. Nelson, 2008. "Central Bank Policy Rate Guidance and Financial Market Functioning," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(4), pages 193-226, December.
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    4. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
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    8. Reserve Bank of New Zealand, 2012. "For the record," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 75, pages 36-46, December.
    9. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Acocella, Nicola, 2012. "A general theory of controllability and expectations anchoring for small-open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 397-411.
    10. Richhild Moessner, 2014. "Effects of explicit FOMC policy-rate guidance on equities and risk measures," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(18), pages 2139-2153, June.
    11. Guender, Alfred V. & Rimer, Oyvinn, 2008. "The implementation of monetary policy in New Zealand: What factors affect the 90-day bank bill rate?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 215-234, August.
    12. Swanson, Eric T., 2006. "Have Increases in Federal Reserve Transparency Improved Private Sector Interest Rate Forecasts?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 791-819, April.
    13. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    14. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Communication by Central Bank Committee Members: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 509-541, March.
    15. Reserve Bank of New Zealand, 2012. "For the Record," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 75, pages 31-38, June.
    16. Reserve Bank of New Zealand, 2012. "For the record," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 75, pages 46-53, March.
    17. Richhild Moessner, 2013. "Effects of explicit FOMC policy rate guidance on market interest rates," DNB Working Papers 384, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    18. Winkelmann, Lars, 2013. "Quantitative forward guidance and the predictability of monetary policy: A wavelet based jump detection approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2013-016, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    19. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Michael Ehrmann & David Sondermann, 2012. "The News Content of Macroeconomic Announcements: What if Central Bank Communication Becomes Stale?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(3), pages 1-53, September.
    21. Moessner, Richhild, 2013. "Effects of explicit FOMC policy rate guidance on interest rate expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 170-173.
    22. Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2012. "Managing financial market expectations: The role of central bank transparency and central bank communication," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-13.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Frenkel & Jin-Kyu Jung & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2017. "Rationalizing the Bias in Central Banks' Interest Rate Projections," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 17-03, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    2. Michael Frenkel & Jin-Kyu Jung & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2022. "Testing for the rationality of central bank interest rate forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1037-1078, March.
    3. Richhild Moessner & David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2017. "Communication About Future Policy Rates In Theory And Practice: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 678-711, July.
    4. Richhild Moessner & David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2017. "Communication About Future Policy Rates In Theory And Practice: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 678-711, July.
    5. Detmers, Gunda-Alexandra, 2016. "Forward guidance under disagreement: Evidence from the Fed's dot projections," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-041, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    6. Detmers, Gunda-Alexandra, 2016. "Forward Guidance under Disagreement - Evidence from the Fed’s dot projections," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145768, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2016-041 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Amaya, Diego & Filbien, Jean-Yves, 2015. "The similarity of ECB’s communication," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 234-242.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank interest rate projections; Central bank communication; Quantitative forward guidance; Interest rate uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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