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Unconventional Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates

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  • Mr. Tao Wu

Abstract

This paper examines the transmission mechanism through which unconventional monetary policy affects long-term interest rates. I construct a real-time measure summarizing market projections of the magnitude and duration of the Federal Reserve's Large Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP) program, and analyze the determination of term premiums and expectations of future short-term interest rates in a sample spanning more than two decades. Empirical findings suggest that the LSAP has effectively lowered the long-term Treasury bond yields, through both "signaling" and "portfolio balance" channels. On the other hand, the Fed's "forward guidance" also leads to gradual extension of market projections for the duration of the LSAP program, thereby enhancing the LSAP's effect to keep term premiums low. Estimation results also reveal a diminished effectiveness of the LSAP during QE III. Finally, model simulations underscore the importance of policy transparency in minimizing unnecessary market turbulence and ensuring a timely and smooth exit of the unconventional monetary policy stimulus.

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  • Mr. Tao Wu, 2014. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 2014/189, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/189
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jiří Štekláč & Miroslav Titze, 2016. "Udržitelnost dluhového financování státu a její interakce s kvantitativním uvolňováním: případ USA, UK a Japonska v letech 2000-2014 [Government Debt Financing Sustainability and Its Interaction wi," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(3), pages 293-318.
    3. Fornero, Jorge & Kirchner, Markus & Molina, Carlos, 2024. "Estimating shadow policy rates in a small open economy and the role of foreign factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2018. "Unconventional U.S. Monetary Policy: New Tools, Same Channels?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-31, October.
    5. Karlis Vilerts & Olegs Tkacevs, 2016. "The Impact of Sovereign Bond Yields on Fiscal Discipline," Working Papers 2016/05, Latvijas Banka.
    6. Zhou, Siwen, 2018. "Measuring the Signaling Effect of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme at the Effective Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 87084, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Xu Zhang, 2018. "Evaluating the Effects of Forward Guidance and Large-scale Asset Purchases," 2018 Meeting Papers 894, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Xu Zhang, 2021. "Evaluating the Effects of Forward Guidance and Large-scale Asset Purchases," Staff Working Papers 21-54, Bank of Canada.
    9. Bandholz, Harm & Clostermann, Jörg & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "Die Entwicklung der Langfristzinsen in den USA und das "Quantitative Easing" der FED," Arbeitsberichte – Working Papers 40, Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt (THI).
    10. Lüdering, Jochen & Tillmann, Peter, 2020. "Monetary policy on twitter and asset prices: Evidence from computational text analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    11. Kurov, Alexander & Stan, Raluca, 2018. "Monetary policy uncertainty and the market reaction to macroeconomic news," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 127-142.
    12. Stanislav Hába, 2019. "Způsoby ukončení kvantitativního uvolňování na příkladech Japonska, Spojeného království a Spojených států amerických [Methods of Exiting Quantitative Easing on the Examples of Japan, the UK and th," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(1), pages 48-64.
    13. Wen, Fenghua & Shui, Aojie & Cheng, Yuxiang & Gong, Xu, 2022. "Monetary policy uncertainty and stock returns in G7 and BRICS countries: A quantile-on-quantile approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 457-482.
    14. Aramonte, Sirio & Lee, Seung Jung & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2022. "Risk taking and low longer-term interest rates: Evidence from the U.S. syndicated term loan market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

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