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Term spreads and the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from international sovereign bond markets

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  • Zaremba, Adam
  • Kizys, Renatas
  • Aharon, David Y.
  • Umar, Zaghum

Abstract

We explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the term structure of interest rates. Using data from developed and emerging countries, we demonstrate that the expansion of the disease significantly affects sovereign bond markets. The growth of confirmed cases significantly widens the term spreads of government bonds. The effect is independent of government policy and monetary responses to COVID-19 and robust to many considerations.

Suggested Citation

  • Zaremba, Adam & Kizys, Renatas & Aharon, David Y. & Umar, Zaghum, 2022. "Term spreads and the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from international sovereign bond markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:44:y:2022:i:c:s1544612321001239
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102042
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    Cited by:

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    2. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Eugenia Grecu, 2023. "Government Interventions and Sovereign Bond Market Volatility during COVID-19: A Quantile Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-14, February.
    3. Zunaidah Sulong & Mohammad Abdullah & Emmanuel J. A. Abakah & David Adeabah & Simplice Asongu, 2023. "Russia-Ukraine war and G7 debt markets: Evidence from public sentiment towards economic sanctions during the conflict," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 23/057, African Governance and Development Institute..
    4. Jens Klose & Peter Tillmann, 2023. "The stock market and NO2 emissions effects of COVID‐19 around the world," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 556-594, July.
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    6. Iyer, Subramanian Rama & Simkins, Betty J., 2022. "COVID-19 and the Economy: Summary of research and future directions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    7. M'beirick, Abdallahi & Haddou, Samira, 2024. "The asymmetric response of sovereign credit default swaps spreads to risk aversion, investor sentiment and monetary policy shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 244-272.
    8. Umar, Zaghum & Mokni, Khaled & Escribano, Ana, 2022. "Connectedness between the COVID-19 related media coverage and Islamic equities: The role of economic policy uncertainty," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    9. Dridi, Ichrak & Boughrara, Adel, 2023. "Flexible inflation targeting and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging market economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    10. Francisco Jareño & María-Isabel Martínez-Serna & María Chicharro, 2023. "Government Bonds and COVID-19. An International Evaluation Under Different Market States," Evaluation Review, , vol. 47(3), pages 433-478, June.
    11. Candelon, Bertrand & Moura, Rubens, 2023. "Sovereign yield curves and the COVID-19 in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    12. Francisco Jareño & Ana Escribano & Zaghum Umar, 2023. "The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the connectedness of the BRICS’s term structure," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    13. Liao, Haojie & Wei, Yi & Wang, Yun & Lin, Yibin & Tan, RongYong, 2023. "Managerial ability and earnings management: The moderating role of career concerns✰," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    14. Sanjay Kumar Rout & Hrushikesh Mallick, 2022. "Sovereign Bond Market Shock Spillover Over Different Maturities: A Journey from Normal to Covid-19 Period," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(4), pages 697-734, December.
    15. Wang, Haiyang, 2023. "Liquidity of corporate bonds and credit spread," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19 pandemic; Coronavirus; Policy responses; Government bonds; Sovereign bond; Term spread; Term structure; Interest rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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