IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v144y2024ics0261560624000652.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can you hear me now? Identifying the effect of Chinese monetary policy announcements

Author

Listed:
  • Shieh, Harrison

Abstract

Do Chinese monetary policy announcements matter? This study evaluates how relevant Chinese monetary policy announcements are to Chinese financial markets and the real side of the economy. Chinese monetary policy is identified by estimating a “target” factor measuring policy surprises and a “path” factor measuring future expectations of policy using price changes to Chinese financial derivatives on policy announcement dates. Local projection results show that 1) Chinese Treasury yields and interbank rates respond persistently, suggesting that policy transmission through an interest-rate channel exists; 2) Equities and exchange rates do not respond to policy announcements instantaneously, but with a lag; 3) Future expectations of Chinese monetary policy play a larger role than surprises, 4) Real variables show evidence of policy transmission, and 5) policy transmission may be sticky due to information frictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Shieh, Harrison, 2024. "Can you hear me now? Identifying the effect of Chinese monetary policy announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:144:y:2024:i:c:s0261560624000652
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103078
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560624000652
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103078?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Güneş Kamber & Madhusudan Mohanty, 2018. "Do interest rates play a major role in monetary policy transmission in China?," BIS Working Papers 714, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    3. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    4. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    5. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    6. Fu, Liang & Ho, Chun-Yu, 2022. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates under China's evolving monetary policy framework," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    7. John Fernald & John H. Rogers, 2002. "Puzzles In The Chinese Stock Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 416-432, August.
    8. Chen, Hongyi & Chow, Kenneth & Tillmann, Peter, 2017. "The effectiveness of monetary policy in China: Evidence from a Qual VAR," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 216-231.
    9. Adcock, Chris & Ye, Caiwei & Yin, Shuxing & Zhang, Dalu, 2023. "Are Chinese B-shares dead? An analysis of price limits on AB-shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 306-315.
    10. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
    11. Swanson, Eric T., 2021. "Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 32-53.
    12. Claus Brand & Daniel Buncic & Jarkko Turunen, 2010. "The Impact of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions and Communication on the Yield Curve," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1266-1298, December.
    13. Marek Jarocinski & Peter Karadi, 2017. "Central Bank Information Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 1193, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Sun, Rongrong, 2020. "Monetary policy announcements and market interest rates’ response: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    15. Mr. Nathan Porter & Ms. TengTeng Xu, 2009. "What Drives China’s Interbank Market?," IMF Working Papers 2009/189, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Fernald, John G. & Spiegel, Mark M. & Swanson, Eric T., 2014. "Monetary policy effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 83-103.
    17. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2020. "The Fed's Response to Economic News Explains the “Fed Information Effect”," Working Paper Series 2020-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    18. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    19. ter Ellen, Saskia & Jansen, Edvard & Midthjell, Nina Larsson, 2020. "ECB Spillovers and domestic monetary policy effectiveness in small open economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    20. Cragg, John G. & Donald, Stephen G., 1997. "Inferring the rank of a matrix," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 223-250.
    21. Wen-Yi Chen, 2017. "Demographic structure and monetary policy effectiveness: evidence from Taiwan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(6), pages 2521-2544, November.
    22. Rongrong Sun, 2018. "A Narrative indicator of Monetary Conditions in China," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 1-42, September.
    23. He, Qing & Leung, Pak-Ho & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2013. "Factor-augmented VAR analysis of the monetary policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 88-104.
    24. Funke, Michael & Tsang, Andrew, 2019. "The direction and intensity of China's monetary policy conduct: A dynamic factor modelling approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    25. Tian, Shuairu & Gao, Xiang & Cai, Xiaojing, 2023. "The interactive CNY-CNH relationship: A wavelet analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Möller, Rouven & Reichmann, Doron, 2021. "ECB language and stock returns – A textual analysis of ECB press conferences," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 590-604.
    2. Hauzenberger, Niko & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Stelzer, Anna, 2021. "On the effectiveness of the European Central Bank’s conventional and unconventional policies under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 822-845.
    3. Lu, Dong & Tang, Huoqing & Zhang, Chengsi, 2023. "China's monetary policy surprises and corporate real investment," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Boeck, Maximilian & Feldkircher, Martin, 2021. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Yield Curve Expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 887-901.
    5. Andrade, Philippe & Ferroni, Filippo, 2021. "Delphic and odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 816-832.
    6. Jung, Alexander & Uhlig, Harald, 2019. "Monetary policy shocks and the health of banks," Working Paper Series 2303, European Central Bank.
    7. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    8. Martin Baumgärtner & Jens Klose, 2021. "Why central banks announcing liquidity injections is more effective than forward guidance," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 236-256, August.
    9. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2020. "Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    10. Ma, Liang, 2024. "Using stock prices to help identify unconventional monetary policy shocks for external instrument SVAR," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1234-1247.
    11. Bundick, Brent & Herriford, Trenton & Smith, A. Lee, 2024. "The Term Structure of Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    12. Hiroyuki Kubota & Mototsugu Shintani, 2022. "High-frequency identification of monetary policy shocks in Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 73(3), pages 483-513, July.
    13. Max Breitenlechner & Martin Geiger & Mathias Klein, 2024. "The Fiscal Channel of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2024-07, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    14. Yohei Yamamoto & Naoko Hara, 2022. "Identifying factor‐augmented vector autoregression models via changes in shock variances," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 722-745, June.
    15. Hasan, Iftekhar & Kwak, Boreum & Li, Xiang, 2024. "Financial technologies and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    16. Jarociński, Marek, 2022. "Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    17. Gómez-Cram, Roberto & Grotteria, Marco, 2022. "Real-time price discovery via verbal communication: Method and application to Fedspeak," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 993-1025.
    18. Altavilla, Carlo & Brugnolini, Luca & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Motto, Roberto & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2019. "Measuring euro area monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 162-179.
    19. Bianchi, Francesco & Gómez-Cram, Roberto & Kind, Thilo & Kung, Howard, 2023. "Threats to central bank independence: High-frequency identification with twitter," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 37-54.
    20. Valentin Jouvanceau & Ieva Mikaliunaite, 2020. "Euro Area Monetary Communications: Excess Sensitivity and Perception Shocks," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 79, Bank of Lithuania.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Monetary policy factors; High-frequency identification; Local projection; Chinese economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:144:y:2024:i:c:s0261560624000652. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.