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Joining the dots: The FOMC and the future path of policy rates

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  • Gerlach, Stefan
  • Stuart, Rebecca

Abstract

The Federal Reserve publishes since 2012 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members’ views regarding what federal funds rate will be necessary for the FOMC to achieve its statutory targets. The views or “projections†pertain to the end of the current and the next two or three years, and the “longer run.†We use a simple model to interpolate the projections between these discrete points in time, estimate the interest rates one, two and three years ahead, and study how they evolve with macroeconomic conditions. News regarding the labour market, but not inflation, affects the projections in the sample period.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2016. "Joining the dots: The FOMC and the future path of policy rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 11618, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11618
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    1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
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    5. Mankiw, N Gregory & Miron, Jeffrey A & Weil, David N, 1987. "The Adjustment of Expectations to a Change in Regime: A Study of the Founding of the Federal Reserve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 358-374, June.
    6. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992 - 1994," NBER Working Papers 4871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. George A. Kahn & Andrew Palmer, 2016. "Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Revelations from the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-37.
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    10. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
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    13. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2018. "Plotting interest rates: The FOMC’s projections and the economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 12768, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Charalampidis, Nikolaos, 2020. "On unemployment cycles in the Euro Area, 1999–2018," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    3. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2019. "Plotting interest rates: The FOMC's projections and the economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 198-211.
    4. Gerlach, Stefan & Stuart, Rebecca, 2018. "What Drives the FOMC’s Dot Plots?," CEPR Discussion Papers 13117, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Federal Reserve; Monetary policy; Interest rate expectations; Interpolation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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