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Policy Regime Change Against Chronic Deflation?

Author

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  • Ippei Fujiwara

    (RIETI - Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, ANU - Australian National University, FFJ - Fondation France-Japon de l'EHESS - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales)

  • Yoshiyuki Nakazono

    (YCU - Yokohama City University, FFJ - Fondation France-Japon de l'EHESS - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales)

  • Kozo Ueda

    (Waseda University [Tokyo, Japan], FFJ - Fondation France-Japon de l'EHESS - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales, CEAFJP - Centre d’études avancées franco-japonais de Paris - FFJ - Fondation France-Japon de l'EHESS - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales)

Abstract

The policy package known as Abenomics appears to have influenced the Japanese economy drastically, in particular, in the financial markets. In this paper, focusing on the aggressive monetary easing of Abenomics, the first arrow, we evaluate its role in guiding public perceptions on monetary policy stance through the management of expectations. In order to end chronic deflation, such as that which Japan has been suffering over the last two decades, policy regime change must be perceived by economic agents. Analysis using the QUICK survey system (QSS) monthly survey data shows that monetary policy reaction to inflation rates has been in a declining trend since the mid 2000s, implying intensified forward guidance well before Abenomics. However, Japan seems to have moved closer to a long-term liquidity trap, where even long-term bond yields are constrained by the zero lower bound. Consequently, no sizable difference in perceptions has been found before and after the introduction of Abenomics. Estimated changes in perceptions are not abrupt enough to satisfy "Sargent's (1982) criteria for regime change" termed by Eggertsson (2008). This poses a serious challenge to central banks: what is an effective policy option left under the long-term liquidity trap?

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  • Ippei Fujiwara & Yoshiyuki Nakazono & Kozo Ueda, 2015. "Policy Regime Change Against Chronic Deflation?," Working Papers halshs-01545830, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01545830
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01545830
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Kano, Takashi & Wada, Kenji, 2017. "The first arrow hitting the currency target: A long-run risk perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 337-352.
    3. Yoshiyuki Nakazono, 2016. "Inflation expectations and monetary policy under disagreements," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-1, Bank of Japan.
    4. Yutaka Kurihara, 2017. "Are Unconventional Monetary Policy and Large Scale Fiscal Policy Effective?: The Case of Japan," Applied Finance and Accounting, Redfame publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 42-48, August.
    5. Takatoshi Ito, 2021. "An Assessment of Abenomics: Evolution and Achievements," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(2), pages 190-219, July.
    6. Koeda, Junko, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of quantitative and qualitative monetary easing measures," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 121-141.
    7. Kondo, Yoshihiro & Nakazono, Yoshiyuki & Ota, Rui & Sui, Qing-Yuan, 2020. "Heterogeneous impacts of Abenomics on the stock market: A Fund flow analysis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    8. McNelis, Paul D. & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2016. "Finding stability in a time of prolonged crisis: Unconventional policy rules for Japan," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 122-136.
    9. Mr. Giovanni Ganelli & Nour Tawk, 2016. "Spillovers from Japan’s Unconventional Monetary Policy to Emerging Asia: a Global VAR approach," IMF Working Papers 2016/099, International Monetary Fund.

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