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The shadow rate as a predictor of real activity and inflation: Evidence from a data-rich environment

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  • Hännikäinen Jari

    (School of Management, University of Tampere)

Abstract

This paper examines the predictive content of the shadow rates for U.S. real activity and inflation in a data-rich environment. We find that the shadow rates contain substantial out-of-sample predictive power for inflation in non-zero lower bound and zero lower bound periods. In contrast, the shadow rates are uninformative about future real activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Hännikäinen Jari, 2016. "The shadow rate as a predictor of real activity and inflation: Evidence from a data-rich environment," Working Papers 1606, Tampere University, Faculty of Management and Business, Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:tam:wpaper:1606
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    File URL: http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-03-0154-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
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    6. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1439-1465, October.
    7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
    8. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    9. Leo Krippner, 2015. "A comment on Wu and Xia (2015), and the case for two-factor Shadow Short Rates," CAMA Working Papers 2015-48, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eugster, Patrick & Uhl, Matthias W., 2024. "Forecasting inflation using sentiment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    2. Kuusela, Annika & Hännikäinen, Jari, 2017. "What do the shadow rates tell us about future inflation?," MPRA Paper 80542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Forecasting inflation with a zero lower bound or negative interest rates: Evidence from point and density forecasts," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(3), pages 171-232, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    shadow rate; zero lower bound; unconventional monetary policy; forecasting; data-rich environment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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