IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkkb/61.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Weltkonjunktur im Winter 2019 - Weltkonjunktur bleibt vorerst ohne Schwung
[World Economy Winter 2019 - Global growth remains sluggish for the time being]

Author

Listed:
  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Hauber, Philipp
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich

Abstract

Dynamik weiter verringert. Am aktuellen Rand zeichnet sich aber eine Stabilisierung der Konjunktur ab; in den Schwellenländern scheinen sich die Erwartungen bereits etwas aufzuhellen. Stützend wirkt eine Lockerung der Geldpolitik; sie ist in den fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften wieder stark expansiv ausgerichtet, und niedrigere US-Zinsen haben es den Zentralbanken in den Schwellenländern erlaubt, die Zinsen auf breiter Front zu senken. Hinzu kommen in einigen Ländern spürbare Anregungen von der Finanzpolitik. Vor diesem Hintergrund dürfte die Weltwirtschaft allmählich wieder Tritt fassen. Der Produktionsanstieg bleibt aber verhalten, nicht zuletzt weil die bisher recht robuste US-Konjunktur zunächst noch an Fahrt verliert und auch die Expansion der chinesischen Wirtschaft sich in der Grundtendenz weiter leicht verlangsamt. Der Anstieg der Weltproduktion, gerechnet auf Basis von Kaufkraftparitäten, wird in diesem Jahr auf 3,0 Prozent zurückgehen, die geringste Rate seit der Großen Rezession im Jahr 2009. Im kommenden Jahr dürfte die Zuwachsrate mit 3,1 Prozent nur wenig höher ausfallen. Wir haben unsere Prognose vom September damit für 2019 und 2020 nochmals leicht - um jeweils 0,1 Prozentpunkte - reduziert. Für 2021 erwarten wir unverändert einen Zuwachs um 3,4 Prozent. Eine erheblich ungünstigere Konjunkturentwicklung könnte in dem Fall eintreten, dass sich die Rahmenbedingungen für den internationalen Handel weiter spürbar verschlechtern und das Investitionsklima zusätzlich belastet wird. Dieses Abwärtsrisiko ist umso größer, je stärker die Schwäche in der Industrie mit zunehmender Dauer auf die Aktivität in der übrigen Wirtschaft durchwirkt.

Suggested Citation

  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Weltkonjunktur im Winter 2019 - Weltkonjunktur bleibt vorerst ohne Schwung [World Economy Winter 2019 - Global growth remains sluggish for the time being]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 61, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:61
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/213892/1/kkb_61_2019-q4_welt.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233.
    2. Dominguez-Cardoza, Angelica & Trebesch, Christoph, 2019. "Und wieder Argentinien: Warum das Land vor dem neunten Staatsbankrott steht," Kiel Policy Brief 130, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Michael D. Bauer & Thomas M. Mertens, 2018. "Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Eo, Yunjong & Kang, Kyu Ho, 2020. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on forecasting the yield curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    5. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann & Dora Xia Author-X-Name_First: Dora, 2019. "Predicting recessions: financial cycle versus term spread," BIS Working Papers 818, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2020. "Konjunktur im Euroraum im Frühjahr 2020 - Euroraum: Corona-Virus zwingt Währungsunion in die Rezession [Euro Area Economy Spring 2020 - Euro area faces recession]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 64, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Mösle, Saskia & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2019 - Abschwung flaut nur allmählich ab: Industrieschwäche verzögert die Erholung [German Economy Winter 2019 - German economy overcomes slowdown only gradually]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 62, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hauber, Philipp, 2019. "Zur Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession in den Vereinigten Staaten," Kiel Insight 2019.14, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Fernando Garcia Alvarado, 2022. "Detecting crisis vulnerability using yield spread interconnectedness," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3864-3880, October.
    3. Navarro-García, Juan Carlos & Madrid-Guijarro, Antonia, 2016. "Real economic activity and accounting information in Spanish construction and real estate firms," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 21-30.
    4. Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte & Rochelle M. Edge, 2008. "The Sources of Fluctuations in Residential Investment: A View from a Policy-Oriented DSGE Model of the U.S. Economic," 2008 Meeting Papers 990, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Hertrich Markus, 2019. "A Novel Housing Price Misalignment Indicator for Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 759-794, December.
    6. Seitz, Franz & Baumann, Ursel & Albuquerque, Bruno, 2015. "The information content of money and credit for US activity," Working Paper Series 1803, European Central Bank.
    7. Matthew Rognlie & Andrei Shleifer & Alp Simsek, 2018. "Investment Hangover and the Great Recession," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 113-153, April.
    8. Goodness C. Aye & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta & Mehmet Balcilar, 2016. "Forecasting US real private residential fixed investment using a large number of predictors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1557-1580, December.
    9. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of regional housing prices in the US," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(22), pages 2259-2277, May.
    10. Francesco Furlanetto & Francesco Ravazzolo & Samad Sarferaz, 2019. "Identification of Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(617), pages 311-337.
    11. Kouretas, Georgios P. & Pawłowska, Małgorzata, 2020. "Does change in the market structure have any impact on different types of bank loans in the EU?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Himounet, Nicolas, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-31.
    13. Morana, Claudio, 2024. "A new macro-financial condition index for the euro area," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 64-87.
    14. Carlos Garriga & Aaron Hedlund, 2019. "Crises in the Housing Market: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Lessons," Working Papers 2019-33, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    15. Sui, Jianli & Lv, Wenqiang & Gao, Xiang & Koedijk, Kees G., 2024. "China’s GDP-at-Risk: Real-Time Monitoring, Risk Tracing, and Macroeconomic Policy Effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    16. Nyakabawo, Wendy & Miller, Stephen M. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Temporal causality between house prices and output in the US: A bootstrap rolling-window approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 55-73.
    17. Joshua Aizenman & Brian Pinto, 2013. "Managing Financial Integration and Capital Mobility—Policy Lessons from the Past Two Decades," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 636-653, September.
    18. Lars Osberg, 2014. "What’s So Bad About More Inequality?," Working Papers daleconwp2014-01, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    19. Kydland, Finn & Rupert, Peter & Sustek, Roman, 2012. "Housing Dynamics over the Business Cycle," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt7bn5k73m, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    20. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Rangan Gupta & John W. Muteba Mwamba, 2016. "Dynamic Comovements Between Housing and Oil Markets in the US over 1859 to 2013: a Note," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 44(3), pages 377-386, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fortgeschrittene Volkswirtschaften; Schwellenländer; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:61. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.