IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v313y2022i2d10.1007_s10479-021-03972-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Governed by the cycle: interest rate sensitivity of emerging market corporate debt

Author

Listed:
  • Mariya Gubareva

    (Lisbon Accounting and Business School (ISCAL-IPL)
    SOCIUS/CSG (Research in Social Sciences and Management))

  • Maria Rosa Borges

    (Lisbon School of Economics and Management (ISEG-UL), Universidade de Lisboa)

Abstract

This study addresses interest rate sensitivity of emerging market corporate debt. Previous research suggests that interest rate sensitivity of corporate bonds depends on residual maturity of issues, creditworthiness of issuers, embedded options and other idiosyncratic factors. However, the dependence of interest rate sensitivity on phases of the business cycle has not received an appropriate academic attention. This paper provides empirical evidence and theoretical interpretation of a dichotomy of interest rate sensitivity across the phases of the cycle, and sheds light on how credit spreads respond to interest rates. The historical span of the research covers the period of 2004–2016. The findings imply that hedging interest rate risk ought to be a dynamic process and take into consideration where the economy is positioned in the current business cycle. This research provides important insights on the nature of interest rate sensitivity, capable of enhancing financial stability and improving efficiency of financial system.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariya Gubareva & Maria Rosa Borges, 2022. "Governed by the cycle: interest rate sensitivity of emerging market corporate debt," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 991-1019, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:313:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s10479-021-03972-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-021-03972-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-021-03972-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-021-03972-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emrah Ahi & Vedat Akgiray & Emrah Sener, 2018. "Robust term structure estimation in developed and emerging markets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 260(1), pages 23-49, January.
    2. Mariya Gubareva & Maria Rosa Borges, 2017. "Interest rate, liquidity, and sovereign risk: derivative-based VaR," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 18(4), pages 443-465, August.
    3. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    4. Takashi Yasuoka, 2017. "Correlations between the Market Price of Interest Rate Risk and Bond Yields," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 6, pages 208-217.
    5. Laura Alfaro & Gonzalo Asis & Anusha Chari & Ugo Panizza, 2017. "Lessons Unlearned? Corporate Debt in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 23407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. P Muthuramu & T Uma Maheswari, 2019. "Tests for Structural Breaks in Time Series Analysis: A Review of Recent Development," Shanlax International Journal of Economics, Shanlax Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 66-79, September.
    7. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2010. "Interest Rate Risk in Credit Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 579-584, May.
    8. Michael D. Bauer & James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Robust Bond Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 399-448.
    9. Ahmet Sensoy & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ahmed Rostom & Erk Hacihasanoglu, 2019. "Dynamic integration and network structure of the EMU sovereign bond markets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 281(1), pages 297-314, October.
    10. Mariya Gubareva & Maria Rosa Borges, 2016. "Typology for flight-to-quality episodes and downside risk measurement," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(10), pages 835-853, February.
    11. Donatien Hainaut & Yang Shen & Yan Zeng, 2018. "How do capital structure and economic regime affect fair prices of bank’s equity and liabilities?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 519-545, March.
    12. Chung-Hua Shen & Jun-Yu Ren & Yu-Li Huang & Jun-Guo Shi & An-Qi Wang, 2018. "Creating Financial Cycles in China and Interaction with Business Cycles on the Chinese Economy," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(13), pages 2897-2908, October.
    13. Mariya Gubareva & Maria Rosa Borges, 2018. "Rethinking economic capital management through the integrated derivative-based treatment of interest rate and credit risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 266(1), pages 71-100, July.
    14. Steven B. Kamin & K von Kleist, 1999. "The evolution and determinants of emerging markets credit spreads in the 1990s," BIS Working Papers 68, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saeed, Asif & Chaudhry, Sajid M. & Arif, Ahmed & Ahmed, Rizwan, 2023. "Spillover of energy commodities and inflation in G7 plus Chinese economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    2. Vásquez Sáenz, Javier & Quiroga, Facundo Manuel & Bariviera, Aurelio F., 2023. "Data vs. information: Using clustering techniques to enhance stock returns forecasting," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    3. Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "EU sectoral stocks amid geopolitical risk, market sentiment, and crude oil implied volatility: An asymmetric analysis of the Russia-Ukraine tensions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Hanif, Waqas & Andraz, Jorge Miguel & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2024. "Are REITS hedge or safe haven against oil price fall?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1-16.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mariya Gubareva, 2018. "Historical Interest Rate Sensitivity of Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: Evidence of Regime Dependent Behavior," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(2), pages 405-442, November.
    2. Gubareva, Mariya & Borges, Maria Rosa, 2020. "Switching interest rate sensitivity regimes of U.S. Corporates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. Mariya Gubareva & Benjamin Keddad, 2022. "Emerging markets financial sector debt: A Markov‐switching study of interest rate sensitivity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3851-3863, October.
    4. Clark, Ephraim & Kassimatis, Konstantinos, 2015. "Macroeconomic effects on emerging-markets sovereign credit spreads," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 1-13.
    5. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Amine Mati & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2008. "Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2008/259, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Nader Naifar, 2020. "What Explains the Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads Changes in the GCC Region?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-22, October.
    8. Ryan Banerjee & Boris Hofmann & Aaron Mehrotra, 2022. "Corporate investment and the exchange rate: The financial channel," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 296-312, December.
    9. Cho-Hoi Hui & Chi-Fai Lo & Po-Hon Chau, 2016. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and US Dollar-denominated Sovereign Bond Prices in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 072016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    10. Andreas Humpe & David G. McMillan, 2018. "Equity/bond yield correlation and the FED model: evidence of switching behaviour from the G7 markets," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(6), pages 413-428, October.
    11. Seppo Pynnonen & Warren Hogan & Jonathan Batten, 2006. "Modelling credit spreads on yen Eurobonds within an equilibrium correction framework," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(8), pages 583-606.
    12. Riedel, Christoph & Thuraisamy, Kannan S. & Wagner, Niklas, 2013. "Credit cycle dependent spread determinants in emerging sovereign debt markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 209-223.
    13. Mili, Medhi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Teulon, Frédéric, 2018. "Modeling recovery rates of corporate defaulted bonds in developed and developing countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 28-44.
    14. Ms. Sonja Keller & Mr. Ashoka Mody, 2010. "International Pricing of Emerging Market Corporate Debt: Does the Corporate Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2010/026, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Frank Ranganai Matenda & Mabutho Sibanda & Eriyoti Chikodza & Victor Gumbo, 2022. "Bankruptcy prediction for private firms in developing economies: a scoping review and guidance for future research," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(4), pages 927-966, December.
    16. Joel R. Barber, 2021. "Empirical analysis of term structure shifts," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(2), pages 360-371, April.
    17. Gady Jacoby & Chuan Liao & Jonathan A. Batten, 2007. "A Pure Test for the Elasticity of Yield Spreads," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp195, IIIS.
    18. Gerardo Manzo & Antonio Picca, 2020. "The Impact of Sovereign Shocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(7), pages 3113-3132, July.
    19. Fatih Ozatay, 2008. "Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: New Evidence from Turkey," Working Papers 0805, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
    20. Neus, Werner, 2014. "Eigenkapitalnormen, Boni und Risikoanreize in Banken," Die Unternehmung - Swiss Journal of Business Research and Practice, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, vol. 68(2), pages 92-107.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fixed income; Downside risk management; Emerging markets; Corporate debt; Interest rate sensitivity; Capital gains;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:313:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s10479-021-03972-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.