IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qmw/qmwecw/960.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Keep it Simple: Central Bank Communication and Asset Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Haroon Mumtaz

    (Queen Mary University of London)

  • Jumana Saleheen

    (Vanguard Asset Management)

  • Roxane Spitznagel

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of different types and styles of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) communication on asset prices (stock prices, gilt yields and interest rate futures) from 1999-2023. We extend MPC communication to include MPC speeches and find MPC speeches to be an important driver of asset prices. We also show that complex and ambiguous communication leads to greater asset price volatility than simple and clear communication. Central banks that want to avoid generating volatility in financial markets should keep it simple. Our results suggest that by ignoring the type and style of monetary policy communication, the previous literature has disregarded an important source of variation in asset prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Haroon Mumtaz & Jumana Saleheen & Roxane Spitznagel, 2023. "Keep it Simple: Central Bank Communication and Asset Prices," Working Papers 960, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:960
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.qmul.ac.uk/sef/media/econ/research/workingpapers/wp960.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Donald L. Kohn & Brian P. Sack, 2003. "Central bank talk: does it matter and why?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 87-155.
    3. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    4. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
    5. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael & Tong, Matthew, 2019. "The long-run information effect of central bank communication," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 185-202.
    6. Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "The Importance of Fed Chair Speeches as a Monetary Policy Tool," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 394-400, May.
    7. Cragg, John G. & Donald, Stephen G., 1997. "Inferring the rank of a matrix," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 223-250.
    8. Elena Gerko & Hélène Rey, 2017. "Monetary Policy in the Capitals of Capital," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 721-745.
    9. Klodiana Istrefi & Florens Odendahl & Giulia Sestieri, 2022. "ECB Communication and its Impact on Financial Markets," Working papers 859, Banque de France.
    10. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Communication by Central Bank Committee Members: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 509-541, March.
    11. Swanson, Eric T., 2021. "Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 32-53.
    12. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
    13. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Thwaites, Gregory & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2020. "Monetary policy transmission in the United Kingdom: A high frequency identification approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    14. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2022. "Monetary policy transmission during QE times: role of expectations and term premia channels," Bank of England working papers 978, Bank of England, revised 31 Aug 2022.
    15. Cook, Timothy & Hahn, Thomas, 1989. "The effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 331-351, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Braun, Robin & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Saha, Tuli, 2023. "Measuring monetary policy in the UK: the UK Monetary Policy Event‑Study Database," Bank of England working papers 1050, Bank of England.
    2. Nadezhda Ivanova & Andrey Sinyakov & Konstantin Styrin, 2024. "Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy: Review of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(4), pages 119-144, December.
    3. Tetiana Yukhymenko & Oleh Sorochan, 2024. "Impact of the Central Bank's Communication on Macrofinancial Outcomes," Working Papers 01/2024, National Bank of Ukraine.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ehrmann, Michael & Gnan, Phillipp & Rieder, Kilian, 2023. "Central bank communication by ??? The economics of public policy leaks," Working Paper Series 2846, European Central Bank.
    2. Fanelli, Luca & Marsi, Antonio, 2022. "Sovereign spreads and unconventional monetary policy in the Euro area: A tale of three shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    3. Koeniger, Winfried & Lennartz, Benedikt & Ramelet, Marc-Antoine, 2022. "On the transmission of monetary policy to the housing market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Koeniger, Winfried & Lennartz, Benedikt & Ramelet, Marc-Antoine, 2022. "On the transmission of monetary policy to the housing market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. Möller, Rouven & Reichmann, Doron, 2021. "ECB language and stock returns – A textual analysis of ECB press conferences," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 590-604.
    6. Swanson, Eric T., 2021. "Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 32-53.
    7. Ding Dong & Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Min Wei, 2024. "Inflation Disagreement Weakens the Power of Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-094, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Inessa BENCHORA & Aurélien LEROY & Louis RAFFESTIN, 2023. "Is Monetary Policy Transmission Green?," Bordeaux Economics Working Papers 2023-08, Bordeaux School of Economics (BSE).
    9. Lu, Dong & Tang, Huoqing & Zhang, Chengsi, 2023. "China's monetary policy surprises and corporate real investment," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    10. Michael D Bauer & Aeimit Lakdawala & Philippe Mueller, 2022. "Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(644), pages 1290-1308.
    11. Eric T. Swanson, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve’s Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(3), pages 1152-1184, September.
    12. Bundick, Brent & Herriford, Trenton & Smith, A. Lee, 2024. "The Term Structure of Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    13. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek, 2023. "Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2881, European Central Bank.
    14. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2016. "Central Bank Sentiment and Policy Expectations," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459227, HAL.
    15. Odendahl, Florens & Pagliari, Maria Sole & Penalver, Adrian & Rossi, Barbara & Sestieri, Giulia, 2024. "Euro area monetary policy effects. Does the shape of the yield curve matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(S).
    16. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael & Tong, Matthew, 2019. "The long-run information effect of central bank communication," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 185-202.
    17. Chen, Zhengyang, 2019. "The Long-term Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in Monetary Policy Transmission," MPRA Paper 96339, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Hardik A. Marfatia & Rangan Gupta & Keagile Lesame, 2021. "Dynamic Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy on International REITs," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-19, September.
    19. Frederic Boissay & Fabrice Collard & Cristina Manea & Adam Shapiro, 2023. "Monetary tightening, inflation drivers and financial stress," BIS Working Papers 1155, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Andrade, Philippe & Ferroni, Filippo, 2021. "Delphic and odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 816-832.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; central bank communication; high-frequency data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:960. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nicholas Owen The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Nicholas Owen to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deqmwuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.