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The Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on Emerging Market Economies’ Sovereign and Corporate Bond Markets

In: Monetary Policy and Global Spillovers: Mechanisms, Effects and Policy Measures

Author

Listed:
  • John D. Burger

    (Sellinger School of Business)

  • Francis E. Warnock

    (Darden Business School)

  • Veronica C. Warnock

    (Darden Business School)

Abstract

We analyze the effect of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy on EME sovereign and corporate bond markets by focusing on two dimensions: the evolution of the structure (size and currency composition) of the bond markets and their allocations within the bond portfolios of US investors. Global factors, particularly the level of long-term US Treasury yields, matter. Across all specifications, when US long-term interest rates were low (i) EMEs issued more sovereign and private-sector local currency bonds and more private-sector foreign currency bonds and (ii) US investment in EME sovereign bonds (both local currency and USD-denominated) increased. In contrast, after controlling for the level of US long-term interest rates, measures that attempt to isolate the effects of US unconventional monetary policy are often statistically insignificant in our analysis. Local factors matter too: The local currency government bond markets in countries with stronger regulatory quality/creditor rights are larger and attract relatively more US investment. Finally, consistent with Burger et al. (2017), we find that the well-known home bias phenomenon is at least in part a home currency bias: US investors exhibit no home bias against some countries’ USD-denominated bonds, whereas for local currency bonds the familiar home bias is very present.
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Suggested Citation

  • John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2018. "The Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on Emerging Market Economies’ Sovereign and Corporate Bond Markets," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Enrique G. Mendoza & Ernesto Pastén & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy and Global Spillovers: Mechanisms, Effects and Policy Measures, edition 1, volume 25, chapter 3, pages 049-095, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchsb:v25c03pp049-095
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    2. Abuelfadl, Moustafa & Yamani, Ehab, 2021. "Currency news and international bond markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    3. Felipe Beltrán, 2023. "Global monetary policy surprises and their transmission to emerging market economies: an external VAR analysis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 975, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Agur, Itai & Chan, Melissa & Goswami, Mangal & Sharma, Sunil, 2019. "On international integration of emerging sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 347-363.
    5. Nelson Camanho & Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2022. "Global Portfolio Rebalancing and Exchange Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(11), pages 5228-5274.
    6. Vincenzo Quadrini, 2020. "The Impact of Industrialized Countries’ Monetary Policy on Emerging Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(3), pages 550-583, September.
    7. Ciminelli, Gabriele & Rogers, John & Wu, Wenbin, 2022. "The effects of U.S. monetary policy on international mutual fund investment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    8. Vincenzo Quadrini, 0. "The Impact of Industrialized Countries’ Monetary Policy on Emerging Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 0, pages 1-34.
    9. Ansgar Belke & Christian Fahrholz, 2018. "Emerging and small open economies, unconventional monetary policy and exchange rates – a survey," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 331-352, April.
    10. Debalke, Negash Mulatu, 2023. "Examining volatility and spillover effects between markets for sovereign bonds of African countries and the world’s long term interest rate," MPRA Paper 117491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Tsang, Andrew & Yiu, Matthew S. & Nguyen, Huy Toan, 2021. "Spillover across sovereign bond markets between the US and ASEAN4 economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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