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Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model

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Cited by:

  1. Yue Qiu & Jiabei He & Zhensong Chen & Yinhong Yao & Yi Qu, 2024. "A novel semisupervised learning method with textual information for financial distress prediction," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2478-2494, November.
  2. Rousseau, Peter L. & Stroup, Caleb, 2015. "Director Histories and the Pattern of Acquisitions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 671-698, August.
  3. Pascal Kundig & Fabio Sigrist, 2024. "A Spatio-Temporal Machine Learning Model for Mortgage Credit Risk: Default Probabilities and Loan Portfolios," Papers 2410.02846, arXiv.org.
  4. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
  5. Wiklund, Johan & Baker, Ted & Shepherd, Dean, 2010. "The age-effect of financial indicators as buffers against the liability of newness," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 423-437, July.
  6. Casado Yusta, Silvia & Nœ–ez Letamendía, Laura & Pacheco Bonrostro, Joaqu’n Antonio, 2018. "Predicting Corporate Failure: The GRASP-LOGIT Model || Predicci—n de la quiebra empresarial: el modelo GRASP-LOGIT," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 26(1), pages 294-314, Diciembre.
  7. Shane Magee, 2013. "The effect of foreign currency hedging on the probability of financial distress," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(4), pages 1107-1127, December.
  8. Butler, Marty & Leone, Andrew J. & Willenborg, Michael, 2004. "An empirical analysis of auditor reporting and its association with abnormal accruals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 139-165, June.
  9. Jim Sánchez & Diego Restrepo & Andres Ramírez, 2018. "Inefficiency and Bank Failures: A Joint Bayesian Esti-mationof a Stochastic Frontier Model and a Hazards Model," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 16977, Universidad EAFIT.
  10. Alessandra Amendola & Francesco Giordano & Maria Lucia Parrella & Marialuisa Restaino, 2017. "Variable selection in high‐dimensional regression: a nonparametric procedure for business failure prediction," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 355-368, August.
  11. Maria Afreen, 2020. "Review Paper on Composite Leading Index Creation for Forecasting the Bangladeshi Financial Sector," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(4), pages 23-32, October.
  12. Zvika Afik & Ohad Arad & Koresh Galil, 2012. "Using Merton model: an empirical assessment of alternatives," Working Papers 1202, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
  13. Doherty, Neil A. & Kartasheva, Anastasia V. & Phillips, Richard D., 2012. "Information effect of entry into credit ratings market: The case of insurers' ratings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 308-330.
  14. Lyandres, Evgeny & Zhdanov, Alexei, 2013. "Investment opportunities and bankruptcy prediction," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 439-476.
  15. Giordani, Paolo & Jacobson, Tor & Schedvin, Erik von & Villani, Mattias, 2014. "Taking the Twists into Account: Predicting Firm Bankruptcy Risk with Splines of Financial Ratios," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 1071-1099, August.
  16. Shun-Yang Lee & Julian Runge & Daniel Yoo & Yakov Bart & Anett Gyurak & J. W. Schneider, 2023. "COVID-19 Demand Shocks Revisited: Did Advertising Technology Help Mitigate Adverse Consequences for Small and Midsize Businesses?," Papers 2307.09035, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
  17. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "A market-based approach to sector risk determinants and transmission in the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4534-4555.
  18. Ruey-Ching Hwang & Jhao-Siang Siao & Huimin Chung & C. Chu, 2011. "Assessing bankruptcy prediction models via information content of technical inefficiency," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 263-273, December.
  19. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson, 2011. "Issuer Quality and the Credit Cycle," NBER Working Papers 17197, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Elsayed, Mohamed & Elshandidy, Tamer, 2020. "Do narrative-related disclosures predict corporate failure? Evidence from UK non-financial publicly quoted firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  21. DeYoung, Robert & Glennon, Dennis & Nigro, Peter, 2008. "Borrower-lender distance, credit scoring, and loan performance: Evidence from informational-opaque small business borrowers," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 113-143, January.
  22. Gupta, Jairaj & Gregoriou, Andros, 2018. "Impact of market-based finance on SMEs failure," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 13-25.
  23. Duc Hong Vo & Binh Ninh Vo Pham & Chi Minh Ho & Michael McAleer, 2019. "Corporate Financial Distress of Industry Level Listings in Vietnam," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, September.
  24. Ruey-Ching Hwang, 2013. "Forecasting credit ratings with the varying-coefficient model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 1947-1965, December.
  25. Kalak, Izidin El & Azevedo, Alcino & Hudson, Robert & Karim, Mohamad Abd, 2017. "Stock liquidity and SMEs’ likelihood of bankruptcy: Evidence from the US market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1383-1393.
  26. Andrikopoulos, Panagiotis & Khorasgani, Amir, 2018. "Predicting unlisted SMEs' default: Incorporating market information on accounting-based models for improved accuracy," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 559-573.
  27. Jens Hilscher & Mungo Wilson, 2011. "Credit ratings and credit risk," Working Papers 31, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
  28. Chen, Peimin & Wu, Chunchi, 2014. "Default prediction with dynamic sectoral and macroeconomic frailties," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 211-226.
  29. Bonfim, Diana, 2009. "Credit risk drivers: Evaluating the contribution of firm level information and of macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 281-299, February.
  30. Colak, Gonul & Fu, Mengchuan & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2022. "On modeling IPO failure risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
  31. Ruey-Ching Hwang & Chih-Kang Chu, 2013. "Forecasting forward defaults: a simple hazard model with competing risks," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 1467-1477, August.
  32. Li, Chunyu & Lou, Chenxin & Luo, Dan & Xing, Kai, 2021. "Chinese corporate distress prediction using LASSO: The role of earnings management," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  33. Qiongbing Wu & Rebel A. Cole, 2024. "Macroeconomic conditions and bank failure," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1212-1234, August.
  34. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr & Yekini, Liafisu Sina, 2014. "Predicting Stock Market Returns Based on the Content of Annual Report Narrative: A New Anomaly," MPRA Paper 58107, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2009. "Credit rating impact on CDO evaluation," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 235-251.
  36. Juan Laborda & Seyong Ryoo, 2021. "Feature Selection in a Credit Scoring Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-22, March.
  37. Lars Schweizer & Andreas Nienhaus, 2017. "Corporate distress and turnaround: integrating the literature and directing future research," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 10(1), pages 3-47, June.
  38. Ke Wang & Darrell Duffie, 2004. "Multi-Period Corporate Failure Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 747, Econometric Society.
  39. Dan Amiram & Edward Owens, 2024. "Accounting-based expected loss given default and debt contract design," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 2437-2467, September.
  40. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson, 2013. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(6), pages 1483-1525.
  41. Vasso Ioannidou & Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Risk-Taking, and Pricing: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 95-144.
  42. Ittonen, Kim & Tronnes, Per C. & Wong, Leon, 2017. "Substantial doubt and the entropy of auditors’ going concern modifications," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 134-147.
  43. Charitou, Andreas & Dionysiou, Dionysia & Lambertides, Neophytos & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2013. "Alternative bankruptcy prediction models using option-pricing theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2329-2341.
  44. Ha Nguyen, 2023. "Particle MCMC in forecasting frailty correlated default models with expert opinion," Papers 2304.11586, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
  45. Doyle, Jeffrey & Ge, Weili & McVay, Sarah, 2007. "Determinants of weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 193-223, September.
  46. Daniel Rösch & Harald Scheule, 2011. "Securitization rating performance and agency incentives," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 287-314, Bank for International Settlements.
  47. Piu Banerjee & Jose J. Canals-Cerda, 2012. "Credit risk analysis of credit card portfolios under economic stress conditions," Working Papers 12-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  48. Loderer, Claudio & Waelchli, Urs, 2010. "Firm age and performance," MPRA Paper 26450, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  49. Ruey-Ching Hwang & K. F. Cheng & Jack C. Lee, 2007. "A semiparametric method for predicting bankruptcy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(5), pages 317-342.
  50. Mohammad Mahdi Mousavi & Jamal Ouenniche & Kaoru Tone, 2023. "A dynamic performance evaluation of distress prediction models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 756-784, July.
  51. Péter Bauer & Marianna Endrész, 2016. "Modelling Bankruptcy Using Hungarian Firm-Level Data," MNB Occasional Papers 2016/122, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  52. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Kasuya, Munehisa & Akashi, Kentaro, 2009. "Impaired bank health and default risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 145-162, April.
  53. Liu, Xiaoqun & Zhang, Yuchen & Tian, Mengqiao & Chao, Youcong, 2023. "Financial distress and jump tail risk: Evidence from China's listed companies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 316-336.
  54. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José‐Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2014. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 463-505, March.
  55. Christophe Schalck & Meryem Yankol-Schalck, 2021. "Predicting French SME failures: new evidence from machine learning techniques," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(51), pages 5948-5963, November.
  56. Baele, L. & Farooq, M. & Ongena, S., 2012. "Of Religion and Redemption : Evidence from Default on Islamic Loans (Replaces CentER DP 2010-136)," Discussion Paper 2012-014, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  57. Jeanneret, Alexandre & Souissi, Slim, 2016. "Sovereign defaults by currency denomination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 197-222.
  58. George Overton & Olivier de Bandt, 2020. "Why do insurers fail? A comparison of life and non-life insolvencies using a new international database," Working Papers hal-04159696, HAL.
  59. Sajad Abdipour & Ahmad Nasseri & Mojtaba Akbarpour & Hossein Parsian & Shahrzad Zamani, 2013. "Integrating Neural Network and Colonial Competitive Algorithm: A New Approach for Predicting Bankruptcy in Tehran Security Exchange," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(11), pages 1528-1539, November.
  60. Wikil Kwak & Yong Shi & Gang Kou, 2012. "Bankruptcy prediction for Korean firms after the 1997 financial crisis: using a multiple criteria linear programming data mining approach," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 441-453, May.
  61. Filipe, Sara Ferreira & Grammatikos, Theoharry & Michala, Dimitra, 2016. "Forecasting distress in European SME portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 112-135.
  62. Theodore E. Christensen & Gyung H. Paik & Earl K. Stice, 2008. "Creating a Bigger Bath Using the Deferred Tax Valuation Allowance," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(5‐6), pages 601-625, June.
  63. Muravyev, Alexander & Bilyk, Olga & Grechaniuk, Bogdana, 2009. "Firm Performance and Managerial Turnover: The Case of Ukraine," MPRA Paper 13685, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  64. Ertugrul, Mine & Krishnan, Karthik, 2011. "Can CEO dismissals be proactive?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 134-151, February.
  65. Sumit Agarwal & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Lawrence Mielnicki, 2008. "Do Forbearance Plans Help Mitigate Credit Card Losses?," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 191-201, June.
  66. Xavier Brédart & Eric Séverin & David Veganzones, 2021. "Human resources and corporate failure prediction modeling: Evidence from Belgium," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1325-1341, November.
  67. Fiordelisi, Franco & Mare, Davide Salvatore, 2013. "Probability of default and efficiency in cooperative banking," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 30-45.
  68. Guettabi, Mouhcine & Munasib, Abdul, 2015. "The Impact of Obesity on Consumer Bankruptcy," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 208-224.
  69. Scalzer, Rodrigo S. & Rodrigues, Adriano & Macedo, Marcelo Álvaro da S. & Wanke, Peter, 2019. "Financial distress in electricity distributors from the perspective of Brazilian regulation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 250-259.
  70. Demirovic, Amer & Tucker, Jon & Guermat, Cherif, 2015. "Accounting data and the credit spread: An empirical investigation," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 233-250.
  71. Han-Hsing Lee, 2020. "Distress risk, product market competition, and corporate bond yield spreads," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1093-1135, October.
  72. Agarwal, Vineet & Taffler, Richard, 2008. "Comparing the performance of market-based and accounting-based bankruptcy prediction models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1541-1551, August.
  73. Zhou, Fanyin & Fu, Lijun & Li, Zhiyong & Xu, Jiawei, 2022. "The recurrence of financial distress: A survival analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1100-1115.
  74. Dinesh Panchal & Bala Krishnamoorthy & Vivekanand Khanapuri & Ashu Sharma, 2022. "Formulation of Proxy Measures: Measuring Business Model for Improving Competitiveness," International Journal of Global Business and Competitiveness, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 142-161, December.
  75. Huang, Mu-Nan & Lee, Han-Hsing, 2024. "Inter-industry network and credit risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 598-625.
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  81. Gallemore, J., 2012. "Deferred Tax Assests and Bank Regulatory Capital," Other publications TiSEM c4ed0879-0d89-4594-a8f5-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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  125. Kasper Regenburg & Morten Nicklas Bigler Seitz, 2021. "Criminals, bankruptcy, and cost of debt," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 1004-1045, September.
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