IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v37y2015icp33-41.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An analysis of the determinants of financial distress in Italy: A competing risks approach

Author

Listed:
  • Amendola, Alessandra
  • Restaino, Marialuisa
  • Sensini, Luca

Abstract

This paper investigates the influence and the effect of micro-economic indicators and firm-specific factors on different states of financial distress. In particular, a competing risks model is estimated taking into account the differences among variables leading firms to exit the market through bankruptcy, liquidation and inactivity. The determinants of financial distress for any exit route are identified on the basis of the influence on the hazard ratios of the significant variables selected for each state. Furthermore, the predictive performance of the competing-risks model over the single-risk framework is evaluated, with respect to different time windows, by means of some accuracy measures. The results reached on a sample of Italian firms provide support for the hypothesis that the factors influencing firms' way out strongly depend on the exit routes and highlighting the need to distinguish among them by means of a multiple-state approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Amendola, Alessandra & Restaino, Marialuisa & Sensini, Luca, 2015. "An analysis of the determinants of financial distress in Italy: A competing risks approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 33-41.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:37:y:2015:i:c:p:33-41
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2014.10.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056014001749
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2014.10.012?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martha A. Schary, 1991. "The Probability of Exit," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 22(3), pages 339-353, Autumn.
    2. Lennox, Clive, 1999. "Identifying failing companies: a re-evaluation of the logit, probit and DA approaches," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 347-364, July.
    3. David A. Hensher & Stewart Jones, 2007. "Forecasting Corporate Bankruptcy: Optimizing the Performance of the Mixed Logit Model," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 43(3), pages 241-264, September.
    4. Anthony Brabazon & Peter Keenan, 2004. "A hybrid genetic model for the prediction of corporate failure," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 293-310, October.
    5. Balcaen, Sofie & Ooghe, Hubert, 2006. "35 years of studies on business failure: an overview of the classic statistical methodologies and their related problems," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 63-93.
    6. Dimitras, A. I. & Zanakis, S. H. & Zopounidis, C., 1996. "A survey of business failures with an emphasis on prediction methods and industrial applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 487-513, May.
    7. Jones, Stewart & Hensher, David A., 2007. "Modelling corporate failure: A multinomial nested logit analysis for unordered outcomes," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 89-107.
    8. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    9. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    10. Zmijewski, Me, 1984. "Methodological Issues Related To The Estimation Of Financial Distress Prediction Models," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22, pages 59-82.
    11. Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Amparo Sanchis-Llopis & Juan Sanchis-Llopis, 2010. "A competing risks analysis of firms’ exit," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 281-304, April.
    12. Yan, Alice Xie & Shi, Jian & Wu, Chunchi, 2008. "Do macroeconomic variables matter for pricing default risk?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 279-291.
    13. repec:bla:jindec:v:46:y:1998:i:4:p:453-88 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Dietmar Harhoff & Konrad Stahl & Michaerl Woywode, 1998. "Legal Form, Growth and Exit of West German Firms—Empirical Results for Manufacturing, Construction, Trade and Service Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 453-488, December.
    15. Ravi Kumar, P. & Ravi, V., 2007. "Bankruptcy prediction in banks and firms via statistical and intelligent techniques - A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 1-28, July.
    16. Figlewski, Stephen & Frydman, Halina & Liang, Weijian, 2012. "Modeling the effect of macroeconomic factors on corporate default and credit rating transitions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 87-105.
    17. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-124, January.
    18. A. Bhattacharjee & C. Higson & S. Holly & P. Kattuman, 2009. "Macroeconomic Instability and Business Exit: Determinants of Failures and Acquisitions of UK Firms," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(301), pages 108-131, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maria-Lenuţa Ciupac-Ulici & Daniela-Georgeta Beju & Ioan-Alin Nistor & Flaviu Pișcoran, 2023. "The impact of the Altman score on the energy sector companies," Journal of Financial Studies, Institute of Financial Studies, vol. 14(8), pages 45-56, June.
    2. Ben Jabeur, Sami, 2017. "Bankruptcy prediction using Partial Least Squares Logistic Regression," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 197-202.
    3. Simone Poli & Marco Gatti, 2024. "The relevance of cash flow information in predicting corporate bankruptcy in Italian private companies," MANAGEMENT CONTROL, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2024(1), pages 179-202.
    4. Marialuisa Restaino & Marco Bisogno, 2019. "A Business Failure Index Using Rank Transformation," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(1), pages 56-65, January.
    5. Mateusz Heba & Marcin Chlebus, 2020. "Impact of using industry benchmark financial ratios on performance of bankruptcy prediction logistic regression model," Working Papers 2020-30, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    6. Şaban Çelik & Bora Aktan & Bruce Burton, 2022. "Firm dynamics and bankruptcy processes: A new theoretical model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 567-591, April.
    7. Tian, Shaonan & Yu, Yan, 2017. "Financial ratios and bankruptcy predictions: An international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 510-526.
    8. Mselmi, Nada & Lahiani, Amine & Hamza, Taher, 2017. "Financial distress prediction: The case of French small and medium-sized firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 67-80.
    9. Fedorova, Elena & Ledyaeva, Svetlana & Drogovoz, Pavel & Nevredinov, Alexandr, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and bankruptcy filings," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. A. N. Adi & Z. Baridwan & E. Mardiati, 2018. "Profitability, Liquidity, Leverage and Corporate Governance Impact on Financial Statement Fraud and Financial Distress as Intervening Variable," Вестник Киевского национального университета имени Тараса Шевченко. Экономика., Socionet;Киевский национальный университет имени Тараса Шевченко, vol. 5(200), pages 66-74.
    11. Nurul Izzaty Hasanah Azhar & Norziana Lokman & Md. Mahmudul Alam & Jamaliah Said, 2021. "Factors determining Z-score and corporate failure in Malaysian companies," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 21(3), pages 370-386.
    12. Pham, Tho & Talavera, Oleksandr & Wood, Geoffrey & Yin, Shuxing, 2022. "Quality of working environment and corporate financial distress," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    13. Ayoola Tajudeen John & Obokoh Lawrence Ogechukwu, 2018. "Corporate Governance and Financial Distress in the Banking Industry: Nigerian Experience," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(1), pages 182-193.
    14. Rémi Stellian & Jenny Paola Danna-Buitrago & David Andrés Londoño Bedoya, 2018. "Fragilidad financiera empresarial y expectativas de ingresos: evidencias de un modelo multi-agentes," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 37(73), February.
    15. repec:fst:rfsisf:v:8:y:2023:i:special-june_2023:p:45-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Rémi Stellian & Jenny P. Danna‐Buitrago, 2020. "Financial distress, free cash flow, and interfirm payment network: Evidence from an agent‐based model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 598-616, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. fernández, María t. Tascón & gutiérrez, Francisco J. Castaño, 2012. "Variables y Modelos Para La Identificación y Predicción Del Fracaso Empresarial: Revisión de La Investigación Empírica Reciente," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 7-58.
    2. du Jardin, Philippe, 2015. "Bankruptcy prediction using terminal failure processes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(1), pages 286-303.
    3. Hyeongjun Kim & Hoon Cho & Doojin Ryu, 2020. "Corporate Default Predictions Using Machine Learning: Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-11, August.
    4. Alessandra Amendola & Marialuisa Restaino & Luca Sensini, 2013. "Corporate Financial Distress And Bankruptcy: A Comparative Analysis In France, Italy And Spain," Global Economic Observer, "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences;Institute for World Economy of the Romanian Academy, vol. 1(2), pages 131-142, November.
    5. Huong Dang, 2014. "A Competing Risks Dynamic Hazard Approach to Investigate the Insolvency Outcomes of Property-Casualty Insurers," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 39(1), pages 42-76, January.
    6. repec:ntu:ntugeo:vol1-iss2s-13-131 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Serrano-Cinca, Carlos & Gutiérrez-Nieto, Begoña & Bernate-Valbuena, Martha, 2019. "The use of accounting anomalies indicators to predict business failure," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 353-375.
    8. Mousavi, Mohammad M. & Ouenniche, Jamal & Xu, Bing, 2015. "Performance evaluation of bankruptcy prediction models: An orientation-free super-efficiency DEA-based framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 64-75.
    9. Casado Yusta, Silvia & Nœ–ez Letamendía, Laura & Pacheco Bonrostro, Joaqu’n Antonio, 2018. "Predicting Corporate Failure: The GRASP-LOGIT Model || Predicci—n de la quiebra empresarial: el modelo GRASP-LOGIT," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 26(1), pages 294-314, Diciembre.
    10. Kumar, Rahul & Deb, Soumya Guha & Mukherjee, Shubhadeep, 2020. "Do words reveal the latent truth? Identifying communication patterns of corporate losers," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    11. Mohammad Mahdi Mousavi & Jamal Ouenniche & Kaoru Tone, 2023. "A dynamic performance evaluation of distress prediction models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 756-784, July.
    12. Soo Young Kim, 2018. "Predicting hospitality financial distress with ensemble models: the case of US hotels, restaurants, and amusement and recreation," Service Business, Springer;Pan-Pacific Business Association, vol. 12(3), pages 483-503, September.
    13. Maurice Peat & Stewart Jones, 2012. "Using Neural Nets To Combine Information Sets In Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 90-101, April.
    14. Fernando Zambrano Farias & María del Carmen Valls Martínez & Pedro Antonio Martín-Cervantes, 2021. "Explanatory Factors of Business Failure: Literature Review and Global Trends," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-26, September.
    15. Marianna Succurro, 2017. "Financial Bankruptcy across European Countries," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(7), pages 132-146, July.
    16. Frank Ranganai Matenda & Mabutho Sibanda & Eriyoti Chikodza & Victor Gumbo, 2022. "Bankruptcy prediction for private firms in developing economies: a scoping review and guidance for future research," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(4), pages 927-966, December.
    17. Şaban Çelik, 2013. "Micro Credit Risk Metrics: A Comprehensive Review," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 233-272, October.
    18. Christian Lohmann & Thorsten Ohliger, 2017. "Nonlinear Relationships and Their Effect on the Bankruptcy Prediction," Schmalenbach Business Review, Springer;Schmalenbach-Gesellschaft, vol. 18(3), pages 261-287, August.
    19. Jones, Stewart & Wang, Tim, 2019. "Predicting private company failure: A multi-class analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 161-188.
    20. Kim, Soo Y. & Upneja, Arun, 2014. "Predicting restaurant financial distress using decision tree and AdaBoosted decision tree models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 354-362.
    21. Mohammad Mahdi Mousavi & Jamal Ouenniche, 2018. "Multi-criteria ranking of corporate distress prediction models: empirical evaluation and methodological contributions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 853-886, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial distress; Firm's exit; Competing risks model; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:37:y:2015:i:c:p:33-41. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.