IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v306y2023i1p348-357.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Extending business failure prediction models with textual website content using deep learning

Author

Listed:
  • Borchert, Philipp
  • Coussement, Kristof
  • De Caigny, Arno
  • De Weerdt, Jochen

Abstract

Business failure prediction (BFP) is an important instrument in assessing the risk of corporate failure. While a large body of research has focused on BFP, recent research in operations research and analytics acknowledges the beneficial effect of incorporating textual data for predictive modelling. However, extant BFP research that incorporates textual company information is very scarce. Based on a dataset containing 13,571 European companies provided by the largest European data aggregator, this study investigates the added value of extending traditional BFP models with textual website content. We further benchmark various feature extraction techniques in natural language processing (i.e. the vector-space approach, neural networks-based approaches and transformers) and assess the best way of representing and integrating textual website features for BFP modelling. The results confirm that including textual website data improves BFP predictive performance, and that textual features extracted by transformers add the most value to the BFP models in this benchmark setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Borchert, Philipp & Coussement, Kristof & De Caigny, Arno & De Weerdt, Jochen, 2023. "Extending business failure prediction models with textual website content using deep learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(1), pages 348-357.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:306:y:2023:i:1:p:348-357
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2022.06.060
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221722005495
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2022.06.060?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tam, KY, 1991. "Neural network models and the prediction of bank bankruptcy," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 429-445.
    2. K. Coussement & D. Van Den Poel, 2007. "Improving Customer Complaint Management by Automatic Email Classification Using Linguistic Style Features as Predictors," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 07/481, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. Balcaen, Sofie & Ooghe, Hubert, 2006. "35 years of studies on business failure: an overview of the classic statistical methodologies and their related problems," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 63-93.
    4. Ravi Kumar, P. & Ravi, V., 2007. "Bankruptcy prediction in banks and firms via statistical and intelligent techniques - A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 1-28, July.
    5. Zhang, Guoqiang & Y. Hu, Michael & Eddy Patuwo, B. & C. Indro, Daniel, 1999. "Artificial neural networks in bankruptcy prediction: General framework and cross-validation analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 16-32, July.
    6. Mai, Feng & Tian, Shaonan & Lee, Chihoon & Ma, Ling, 2019. "Deep learning models for bankruptcy prediction using textual disclosures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 743-758.
    7. Christopher D. Allport & John A. Pendley, 2010. "The impact of website design on the perceived credibility of internet financial reporting," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3‐4), pages 127-141, July.
    8. De Bock, Koen W. & Coussement, Kristof & Lessmann, Stefan, 2020. "Cost-sensitive business failure prediction when misclassification costs are uncertain: A heterogeneous ensemble selection approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(2), pages 612-630.
    9. Koen W. de Bock & Kristof Coussement & Stefan Lessmann, 2020. "Cost-sensitive business failure prediction when misclassification costs are uncertain: A heterogeneous ensemble selection approach," Post-Print hal-02863245, HAL.
    10. Yue Kang & Zhao Cai & Chee-Wee Tan & Qian Huang & Hefu Liu, 2020. "Natural language processing (NLP) in management research: A literature review," Journal of Management Analytics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 139-172, April.
    11. Geng, Ruibin & Bose, Indranil & Chen, Xi, 2015. "Prediction of financial distress: An empirical study of listed Chinese companies using data mining," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 241(1), pages 236-247.
    12. De Caigny, Arno & Coussement, Kristof & De Bock, Koen W. & Lessmann, Stefan, 2020. "Incorporating textual information in customer churn prediction models based on a convolutional neural network," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1563-1578.
    13. Manthoulis, Georgios & Doumpos, Michalis & Zopounidis, Constantin & Galariotis, Emilios, 2020. "An ordinal classification framework for bank failure prediction: Methodology and empirical evidence for US banks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(2), pages 786-801.
    14. Michalis Doumpos & Kostas Andriosopoulos & Emilios Galariotis & Georgia Makridou & Constantin Zopounidis, 2017. "Corporate failure prediction in the European energy sector: A multicriteria approach and the effect of country characteristics," Post-Print hal-01578092, HAL.
    15. Kraus, Mathias & Feuerriegel, Stefan & Oztekin, Asil, 2020. "Deep learning in business analytics and operations research: Models, applications and managerial implications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 281(3), pages 628-641.
    16. Georgios Manthoulis & Michalis Doumpos & Constantin Zopounidis & Emilios C. C Galariotis, 2020. "An ordinal classification framework for bank failure prediction: Methodology and empirical evidence for US banks," Post-Print hal-02413358, HAL.
    17. Arno de Caigny & Kristof Coussement & Koen W. de Bock, 2018. "A new hybrid classification algorithm for customer churn prediction based on logistic regression and decision trees," Post-Print hal-01741661, HAL.
    18. Zhu, Mu & Ghodsi, Ali, 2006. "Automatic dimensionality selection from the scree plot via the use of profile likelihood," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 918-930, November.
    19. Dimitras, A. I. & Zanakis, S. H. & Zopounidis, C., 1996. "A survey of business failures with an emphasis on prediction methods and industrial applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 487-513, May.
    20. De Caigny, Arno & Coussement, Kristof & De Bock, Koen W., 2018. "A new hybrid classification algorithm for customer churn prediction based on logistic regression and decision trees," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(2), pages 760-772.
    21. Michael Doumpos & Kostas Andriosopoulos & Emilios C. C Galariotis & Georgia Makridou & Constantin Zopounidis, 2017. "Corporate failure prediction in the European energy sector: A multicriteria approach and the effect of country characteristics," Post-Print hal-02879853, HAL.
    22. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-124, January.
    23. J. Geerings & L. H. H. Bollen & H. F. D. Hassink, 2003. "Investor relations on the Internet: a survey of the Euronext zone," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 567-579.
    24. du Jardin, Philippe, 2015. "Bankruptcy prediction using terminal failure processes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(1), pages 286-303.
    25. Liang, Deron & Lu, Chia-Chi & Tsai, Chih-Fong & Shih, Guan-An, 2016. "Financial ratios and corporate governance indicators in bankruptcy prediction: A comprehensive study," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(2), pages 561-572.
    26. Petropoulos, Anastasios & Siakoulis, Vasilis & Stavroulakis, Evangelos & Vlachogiannakis, Nikolaos E., 2020. "Predicting bank insolvencies using machine learning techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1092-1113.
    27. Scott Deerwester & Susan T. Dumais & George W. Furnas & Thomas K. Landauer & Richard Harshman, 1990. "Indexing by latent semantic analysis," Journal of the American Society for Information Science, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 41(6), pages 391-407, September.
    28. Doumpos, Michalis & Andriosopoulos, Kostas & Galariotis, Emilios & Makridou, Georgia & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2017. "Corporate failure prediction in the European energy sector: A multicriteria approach and the effect of country characteristics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(1), pages 347-360.
    29. Fischer, Thomas & Krauss, Christopher, 2018. "Deep learning with long short-term memory networks for financial market predictions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(2), pages 654-669.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. du Jardin, Philippe, 2021. "Forecasting corporate failure using ensemble of self-organizing neural networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(3), pages 869-885.
    2. Mai, Feng & Tian, Shaonan & Lee, Chihoon & Ma, Ling, 2019. "Deep learning models for bankruptcy prediction using textual disclosures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 743-758.
    3. Koen W. de Bock & Kristof Coussement & Arno De Caigny & Roman Slowiński & Bart Baesens & Robert N Boute & Tsan-Ming Choi & Dursun Delen & Mathias Kraus & Stefan Lessmann & Sebastián Maldonado & David , 2023. "Explainable AI for Operational Research: A Defining Framework, Methods, Applications, and a Research Agenda," Post-Print hal-04219546, HAL.
    4. Salwa Kessioui & Michalis Doumpos & Constantin Zopounidis, 2023. "A Bibliometric Overview of the State-of-the-Art in Bankruptcy Prediction Methods and Applications," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Emilios Galariotis & Alexandros Garefalakis & Christos Lemonakis & Marios Menexiadis & Constantin Zo (ed.), Governance and Financial Performance Current Trends and Perspectives, chapter 6, pages 123-153, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Katsafados, Apostolos G. & Leledakis, George N. & Pyrgiotakis, Emmanouil G. & Androutsopoulos, Ion & Fergadiotis, Manos, 2024. "Machine learning in bank merger prediction: A text-based approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 312(2), pages 783-797.
    6. Citterio, Alberto, 2024. "Bank failure prediction models: Review and outlook," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    7. Koen W. de Bock, 2017. "The best of two worlds: Balancing model strength and comprehensibility in business failure prediction using spline-rule ensembles," Post-Print hal-01588059, HAL.
    8. De Bock, Koen W. & Coussement, Kristof & Lessmann, Stefan, 2020. "Cost-sensitive business failure prediction when misclassification costs are uncertain: A heterogeneous ensemble selection approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(2), pages 612-630.
    9. De Bock, Koen W. & Coussement, Kristof & Caigny, Arno De & Słowiński, Roman & Baesens, Bart & Boute, Robert N. & Choi, Tsan-Ming & Delen, Dursun & Kraus, Mathias & Lessmann, Stefan & Maldonado, Sebast, 2024. "Explainable AI for Operational Research: A defining framework, methods, applications, and a research agenda," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 317(2), pages 249-272.
    10. fernández, María t. Tascón & gutiérrez, Francisco J. Castaño, 2012. "Variables y Modelos Para La Identificación y Predicción Del Fracaso Empresarial: Revisión de La Investigación Empírica Reciente," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 7-58.
    11. Eric Séverin & David Veganzones, 2021. "Can earnings management information improve bankruptcy prediction models?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 306(1), pages 247-272, November.
    12. De Caigny, Arno & Coussement, Kristof & De Bock, Koen W. & Lessmann, Stefan, 2020. "Incorporating textual information in customer churn prediction models based on a convolutional neural network," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1563-1578.
    13. Tomasz Korol, 2019. "Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-15, December.
    14. Koen W. de Bock & Kristof Coussement & Stefan Lessmann, 2020. "Cost-sensitive business failure prediction when misclassification costs are uncertain: A heterogeneous ensemble selection approach," Post-Print hal-02863245, HAL.
    15. Sami Ben Jabeur & Nicolae Stef & Pedro Carmona, 2023. "Bankruptcy Prediction using the XGBoost Algorithm and Variable Importance Feature Engineering," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(2), pages 715-741, February.
    16. Francesco Ciampi & Valentina Cillo & Fabio Fiano, 2020. "Combining Kohonen maps and prior payment behavior for small enterprise default prediction," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1007-1039, April.
    17. Ben Jabeur, Sami & Serret, Vanessa, 2023. "Bankruptcy prediction using fuzzy convolutional neural networks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    18. Mohammad Mahdi Mousavi & Jamal Ouenniche, 2018. "Multi-criteria ranking of corporate distress prediction models: empirical evaluation and methodological contributions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 853-886, December.
    19. Apostolos G. Katsafados & Dimitris Anastasiou, 2024. "Short-term prediction of bank deposit flows: do textual features matter?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 338(2), pages 947-972, July.
    20. Zhou, Fanyin & Fu, Lijun & Li, Zhiyong & Xu, Jiawei, 2022. "The recurrence of financial distress: A survival analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1100-1115.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:306:y:2023:i:1:p:348-357. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.