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On corporate financial distress prediction: What can we learn from private firms in a developing economy? Evidence from Greece

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  • Evangelos C. Charalambakis

    (Bank of Greece)

  • Ian Garrett

    (University of Manchester)

Abstract

Using a large dataset that includes nearly 31,000 Greek private firms we examine the determinants of the probability of corporate financial distress. Using a multi-period logit model, we find that profitability, leverage, the ratio of retained earnings-to-total assets, size, the liquidity ratio, an export dummy variable, the tendency to pay out dividends and the growth rate in real GDP are strong predictors of the probability of financial distress for Greek private firms. A model including these variables exhibits the highest in-sample and out-of-sample performance in terms of correctly classifying firms that went bankrupt as more likely to go bankrupt. The predictive ability of the model remains when we increase the forecast horizon, suggesting that the model works well over short and longer time horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Evangelos C. Charalambakis & Ian Garrett, 2019. "On corporate financial distress prediction: What can we learn from private firms in a developing economy? Evidence from Greece," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 467-491, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:52:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s11156-018-0716-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-018-0716-7
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Corporate financial distress; Bankruptcy prediction; Private firms; Discrete hazard (multi-period logit) model; Financial statements; Greek debt crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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