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Accounting data and the credit spread: An empirical investigation

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  • Demirovic, Amer
  • Tucker, Jon
  • Guermat, Cherif

Abstract

Measures of credit risk based on Merton (1974) rely upon information available in the market prices of securities. Under the Efficient Market Hypothesis market prices should reflect all available information and, hence, make redundant all other information in the analysis of credit risk. This paper examines whether accounting data are fully reflected in the market-based measures of credit risk and therefore has no role in explaining variations in the credit spread on corporate bonds. We use a sample consisting of over 11,000 firm-quarter observations with matched equity, bond and accounting data. The results suggest that equity volatility and Merton's distance-to-default outperform accounting variables in explaining variations in the credit spread. However, accounting variables are incrementally informative in explaining variations in the credit spread when considered in conjunction with market-based measures. Within the set of accounting variables considered, we find that the profitability ratio is by far the most incrementally informative accounting variable.

Suggested Citation

  • Demirovic, Amer & Tucker, Jon & Guermat, Cherif, 2015. "Accounting data and the credit spread: An empirical investigation," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 233-250.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:34:y:2015:i:c:p:233-250
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2015.02.013
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    3. Nasiri, Maryam Akbari & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Mishra, Sagarika, 2019. "Reaction of the credit default swap market to the release of periodic financial reports," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit spread; Credit risk analysis; Distance-to-default; Accounting data; Value relevance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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