IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v78y2021ics1057521921002131.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Abnormal investment and firm performance

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Siqi
  • Yin, Chao
  • Zeng, Yeqin

Abstract

We find a negative relation between abnormal investment and future stock performance. Such a negative relation is mainly driven by under-investment, not over-investment. Our results are robust to various estimation methods and investment models. Both delayed market reaction and agency issues may lead to the apparently anomalous return predictability of under-investment. First, market investors may not react promptly to the fundamental information contained in under-investment about a firm’s future profitability, asset growth, and financial distress probability. Second, the negative relation between under-investment and future stock returns is more pronounced for firms with lower investor monitoring and higher agency costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Siqi & Yin, Chao & Zeng, Yeqin, 2021. "Abnormal investment and firm performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:78:y:2021:i:c:s1057521921002131
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101886
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521921002131
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101886?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cortés, Kristle & Duchin, Ran & Sosyura, Denis, 2016. "Clouded judgment: The role of sentiment in credit origination," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 392-413.
    2. Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2013. "Firm Characteristics and Stock Returns: The Role of Investment-Specific Shocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(11), pages 2718-2759.
    3. Philippe Aghion & John Van Reenen & Luigi Zingales, 2013. "Innovation and Institutional Ownership," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(1), pages 277-304, February.
    4. Bergman, Yaacov Z. & Callen, Jeffrey L., 1991. "Opportunistic underinvestment in debt renegotiation and capital structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 137-171, March.
    5. Marianne Bertrand & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2003. "Enjoying the Quiet Life? Corporate Governance and Managerial Preferences," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(5), pages 1043-1075, October.
    6. Mike Qinghao Mao & K. C. John Wei, 2016. "Cash-Flow News and the Investment Effect in the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(9), pages 2504-2519, September.
    7. David Hirshleifer & Tyler Shumway, 2003. "Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1009-1032, June.
    8. Laura Xiaolei Liu & Toni M. Whited & Lu Zhang, 2009. "Investment-Based Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(6), pages 1105-1139, December.
    9. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2008. "Dissecting Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1653-1678, August.
    10. Emily Oster, 2019. "Unobservable Selection and Coefficient Stability: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 187-204, April.
    11. James S. Ang & Rebel A. Cole & James Wuh Lin, 2000. "Agency Costs and Ownership Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 81-106, February.
    12. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    13. Harvey, Campbell R. & Lins, Karl V. & Roper, Andrew H., 2004. "The effect of capital structure when expected agency costs are extreme," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, October.
    14. Alex Edmans, 2014. "Blockholders and Corporate Governance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 23-50, December.
    15. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    16. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-329, May.
    17. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1998. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 193-225, March.
    18. Veronica Guerrieri & Peter Kondor, 2012. "Fund Managers, Career Concerns, and Asset Price Volatility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(5), pages 1986-2017, August.
    19. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    20. Diego García, 2013. "Sentiment during Recessions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1267-1300, June.
    21. Qi Chen & Itay Goldstein & Wei Jiang, 2007. "Price Informativeness and Investment Sensitivity to Stock Price," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 619-650.
    22. Michael J. Cooper & Huseyin Gulen & Michael J. Schill, 2008. "Asset Growth and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1609-1651, August.
    23. Stoughton, Neal M. & Wong, Kit Pong & Yi, Long, 2017. "Investment Efficiency and Product Market Competition," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(6), pages 2611-2642, December.
    24. Abarbanell, Jeffrey S & Bernard, Victor L, 1992. "Tests of Analysts' Overreaction/Underreaction to Earnings Information as an Explanation for Anomalous Stock Price Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1181-1207, July.
    25. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    26. Joao Gomes & Leonid Kogan & Lu Zhang, 2003. "Equilibrium Cross Section of Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(4), pages 693-732, August.
    27. Philip Shane & Peter Brous, 2001. "Investor and (Value Line) Analyst Underreaction to Information about Future Earnings: The Corrective Role of Non‐Earnings‐Surprise Information," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 387-404, September.
    28. Alex Edmans & Diego García & Øyvind Norli, 2007. "Sports Sentiment and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1967-1998, August.
    29. Dong Lee & Han Shin & René M. Stulz, 2016. "Why Does Capital No Longer Flow More to the Industries with the Best Growth Opportunities?," NBER Working Papers 22924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Oliver D. Hart, 1983. "The Market Mechanism as an Incentive Scheme," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 14(2), pages 366-382, Autumn.
    31. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2015. "Editor's Choice Digesting Anomalies: An Investment Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 650-705.
    32. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    33. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    34. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    35. Feltham, GA & Ohlson, JA, 1996. "Uncertainty resolution and the theory of depreciation measurement," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 209-234.
    36. Titman, Sheridan & Wei, K. C. John & Xie, Feixue, 2004. "Capital Investments and Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(4), pages 677-700, December.
    37. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    38. George A. Akerlof & Robert J. Shiller, 2010. "Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9163.
    39. Salman Arif & Charles M. C. Lee, 2014. "Aggregate Investment and Investor Sentiment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(11), pages 3241-3279.
    40. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-124, January.
    41. Tor-Erik Bakke & Toni M. Whited, 2010. "Which Firms Follow the Market? An Analysis of Corporate Investment Decisions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(5), pages 1941-1980.
    42. Christopher Polk & Paola Sapienza, 2009. "The Stock Market and Corporate Investment: A Test of Catering Theory," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 187-217, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Huixuan & Chen, Jing, 2022. "Does higher investments necessarily reduce stock returns?☆," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hou, Kewei & Xue, Chen & Zhang, Lu, 2017. "Replicating Anomalies," Working Paper Series 2017-10, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    2. David Hirshleifer & Po-Hsuan Hsu & Dongmei Li, 2018. "Innovative Originality, Profitability, and Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2553-2605.
    3. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    4. Kang, Moonsoo & Khaksari, S. & Nam, Kiseok, 2018. "Corporate investment, short-term return reversal, and stock liquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 68-83.
    5. Hsu, Yen-Ju & Wang, Yanzhi, 2023. "Technology spillover, corporate investment, and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 238-250.
    6. Wikrom Prombutr & Chanwit Phengpis & Ying Zhang, 2023. "Anomalies in U.S. REIT Returns: Evidence for and against the Q-theory," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 26(1), pages 43-71.
    7. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, April.
    8. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Tang, Yi, 2017. "Is economic uncertainty priced in the cross-section of stock returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 471-489.
    9. Yu-Chin Hsu & Hsiou-Wei Lin & Kendro Vincent, 2017. "Do Cross-Sectional Stock Return Predictors Pass the Test without Data-Snooping Bias?," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 17-A003, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
    10. Lin, Chaonan & Chen, Hong-Yi & Ko, Kuan-Cheng & Yang, Nien-Tzu, 2021. "Time-dependent lottery preference and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 272-294.
    11. Doron Avramov & Si Cheng & Lior Metzker, 2023. "Machine Learning vs. Economic Restrictions: Evidence from Stock Return Predictability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2587-2619, May.
    12. Su, Xuan-Qi, 2016. "Does systematic distress risk drive the investment growth anomaly?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 240-248.
    13. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    14. Jean Helwege & Jing-Zhi Huang & Yuan Wang, 2017. "Debt Covenants and Cross-Sectional Equity Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(6), pages 1835-1854, June.
    15. Jang, Jeewon & Kang, Jangkoo, 2019. "Probability of price crashes, rational speculative bubbles, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 222-247.
    16. Hiroki, Takashi & Iwatsubo, Kentaro & Watkins, Clinton, 2022. "Does firm-level productivity predict stock returns?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    17. Papanastasopoulos, Georgios & Thomakos, Dimitrios & Wang, Tao, 2011. "Information in balance sheets for future stock returns: Evidence from net operating assets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 269-282.
    18. Stephen A. Gorman & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2021. "The ABC’s of the alternative risk premium: academic roots," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(6), pages 405-436, October.
    19. Lin, Qi & Lin, Xi, 2018. "Expected investment and the cross-section of stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 43-49.
    20. Clarke, Charles, 2022. "The level, slope, and curve factor model for stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 159-187.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment; Abnormal investment; Stock performance; Market efficiency; Agency costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • M4 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:78:y:2021:i:c:s1057521921002131. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.