IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/acctfi/v50y2010i4p853-870.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Distance to default, subordinated debt, and distress indicators in the banking industry

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Kato
  • Jens Hagendorff

Abstract

The recent financial crisis has highlighted the inadequacy of present supervisory arrangements to identify reliable ex‐ante indicators of banking distress. For a sample of US bank holding companies, we analyse the extent to which distance to default based on market data can be explained using accounting‐based indicators of risk. We show that a larger number of bank fundamentals help predict default for institutions that issue subordinated debt. For banks that issue sub‐debt, we find that higher charter values and low bank capitalizations further increase the power of bank fundamentals to predict default risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Kato & Jens Hagendorff, 2010. "Distance to default, subordinated debt, and distress indicators in the banking industry," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 50(4), pages 853-870, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:50:y:2010:i:4:p:853-870
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-629X.2010.00354.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-629X.2010.00354.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-629X.2010.00354.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sironi, Andrea, 2003. "Testing for Market Discipline in the European Banking Industry: Evidence from Subordinated Debt Issues," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 443-472, June.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, February.
    3. Gorton, Gary & Santomero, Anthony M, 1990. "Market Discipline and Bank Subordinated Debt," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 119-128, February.
    4. John, Kose, 1987. "Risk-Shifting Incentives and Signalling through Corporate Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 623-641, July.
    5. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
    6. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
    7. Diana Hancock & Myron Kwast, 2001. "Using Subordinated Debt to Monitor Bank Holding Companies: Is it Feasible?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-187, October.
    8. Flannery, Mark J & Sorescu, Sorin M, 1996. "Evidence of Bank Market Discipline in Subordinated Debenture Yields: 1983-1991," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1347-1377, September.
    9. Douglas Evanoff & Larry Wall, 2001. "Sub-debt Yield Spreads as Bank Risk Measures," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 121-145, October.
    10. Galloway, Tina M. & Lee, Winson B. & Roden, Dianne M., 1997. "Banks' changing incentives and opportunities for risk taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 509-527, April.
    11. Aigbe Akhigbe & Jeff Madura & Anna D. Martin, 2007. "Effect Of Fed Policy Actions On The Default Likelihood Of Commercial Banks," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 30(1), pages 147-162, March.
    12. DeYoung, Robert, et al, 2001. "The Information Content of Bank Exam Ratings and Subordinated Debt Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(4), pages 900-925, November.
    13. Reint Gropp & Jukka M. Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2004. "Market indicators, bank fragility, and indirect market discipline," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 53-62.
    14. Evanoff, Douglas D. & Wall, Larry D., 2002. "Measures of the riskiness of banking organizations: Subordinated debt yields, risk-based capital, and examination ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 989-1009, May.
    15. Keeley, Michael C, 1990. "Deposit Insurance, Risk, and Market Power in Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1183-1200, December.
    16. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    17. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Deepak Agrawal & Christopher Mann, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, February.
    18. Robert R. Bliss & Mark J. Flannery, 2002. "Market Discipline in the Governance of U.S. Bank Holding Companies: Monitoring vs. Influencing," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 6(3), pages 361-396.
    19. Rebecca Demsetz & Marc R. Saidenberg & Philip E. Strahan, 1996. "Banks with something to lose: the disciplinary role of franchise value," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Oct), pages 1-14.
    20. Flannery, Mark J, 1998. "Using Market Information in Prudential Bank Supervision: A Review of the U.S. Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 273-305, August.
    21. Nier, Erlend & Baumann, Ursel, 2006. "Market discipline, disclosure and moral hazard in banking," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 332-361, July.
    22. Elyasiani, Elyas & Jia, Jingyi Jane, 2008. "Institutional ownership stability and BHC performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1767-1781, September.
    23. Goyal, Vidhan K., 2005. "Market discipline of bank risk: Evidence from subordinated debt contracts," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 318-350, July.
    24. Demsetz, Rebecca S & Strahan, Philip E, 1997. "Diversification, Size, and Risk at Bank Holding Companies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 300-313, August.
    25. Avery, Robert B & Belton, Terrence M & Goldberg, Michael A, 1988. "Market Discipline in Regulating Bank Risk: New Evidence from the Capital Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 597-610, November.
    26. Anthony Saunders & Berry Wilson, 2001. "An Analysis of Bank Charter Value and Its Risk-Constraining Incentives," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 185-195, April.
    27. Mark J. Flannery & Kasturi P. Rangan, 2008. "What Caused the Bank Capital Build-up of the 1990s?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 12(2), pages 391-429.
    28. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    29. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:831-868 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-124, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael Geulen & Andrea Greven & Denise Fischer-Kreer & Malte Brettel, 2024. "Why do firms fail? A new view on bankruptcy from the angle of top management team heterogeneity," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 18(11), pages 3297-3331, November.
    2. Samaniego-Medina, Reyes & Trujillo-Ponce, Antonio & Parrado-Martínez, Purificación & di Pietro, Filippo, 2016. "Determinants of bank CDS spreads in Europe," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-15.
    3. Antonio Trujillo-Ponce & Reyes Samaniego-Medina & Clara Cardone-Riportella, 2014. "Examining what best explains corporate credit risk: accounting-based versus market-based models," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 253-276, April.
    4. Mamiza Haq & Necmi K. Avkiran & Amine Tarazi, 2019. "Does market discipline impact bank charter value? The case for Australia and Canada," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 59(1), pages 253-276, March.
    5. Wilmar Cabrera-Rodríguez & Santiago Segovia-Baquero & Juan Sebastián Mariño-Montaña & Eduardo Yanquen, 2019. "Probabilidad de incumplimiento de entidades financieras colombianas: una aproximación estructural," Borradores de Economia 1097, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Ali, Amjad, 2022. "Determining Pakistan's Financial Dependency: The Role of Financial Globalization and Corruption," MPRA Paper 116097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Necmi Avkiran & Lin Cai, 2014. "Identifying distress among banks prior to a major crisis using non-oriented super-SBM," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 217(1), pages 31-53, June.
    8. Paola Bongini & Małgorzata Iwanicz-Drozdowska & Paweł Smaga & Bartosz Witkowski, 2018. "In search of a measure of banking sector distress: empirical study of CESEE banking sectors," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(3), pages 242-257, August.
    9. Ulf Mohrmann & Jan Riepe, 2019. "The link between the share of banks’ Level 3 assets and their default risk and default costs," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1163-1189, May.
    10. Wanke, Peter & Barros, Carlos P. & Faria, João R., 2015. "Financial distress drivers in Brazilian banks: A dynamic slacks approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 240(1), pages 258-268.
    11. Chiaramonte, Laura & Croci, Ettore & Poli, Federica, 2015. "Should we trust the Z-score? Evidence from the European Banking Industry," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 111-131.
    12. repec:pab:wpbsad:12.07 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lassaâd Mbarek & Dorra Mezzez Hmaied, 2012. "Stock Market Assessment of Bank Risk: Evidence from the Maghreb Region," Working Papers 679, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
    2. Hett, Florian & Schmidt, Alexander, 2017. "Bank rescues and bailout expectations: The erosion of market discipline during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 635-651.
    3. Heller, Yuval & Peleg Lazar, Sharon & Raviv, Alon, 2022. "Banks’ risk taking and creditors’ bargaining power," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Avino, Davide E. & Conlon, Thomas & Cotter, John, 2019. "Credit default swaps as indicators of bank financial distress," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 132-139.
    5. Zhang, Zhichao & Song, Wei & Sun, Xin & Shi, Nan, 2014. "Subordinated debt as instrument of market discipline: Risk sensitivity of sub-debt yield spreads in UK banking," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-21.
    6. Yehning Chen & Iftekhar Hasan, 2011. "Subordinated Debt, Market Discipline, and Bank Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(6), pages 1043-1072, September.
    7. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2011_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Florian Hett & Alexander Schmidt, 2013. "Bank Bailouts and Market Discipline: How Bailout Expectations Changed During the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 1305, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 01 Aug 2013.
    9. Mbarek Lassaâd & Mezzez Hmaied Dorra, 2012. "Stock Market Assessment of Bank Risk: Evidence from the Maghreb Region," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-26, August.
    10. Urs W. Birchler & Matteo Facchinetti, 2007. "Can Bank Supervisors Rely on Market Data? A Critical Assessment from a Swiss Perspective," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 143(II), pages 95-132, June.
    11. Adrian Pop, 2009. "Beyond the Third Pillar of Basel Two: Taking Bond Market Signals Seriously," Working Papers hal-00419241, HAL.
    12. Jens Forssbæck, 2011. "Divergence of risk indicators and the conditions for market discipline in banking," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2011/4, May.
    13. Daniel M. Covitz & Diana Hancock & Myron L. Kwast, 2004. "A reconsideration of the risk sensitivity of U.S. banking organization subordinated debt spreads: a sample selection approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 73-92.
    14. Imai, Masami, 2007. "The emergence of market monitoring in Japanese banks: Evidence from the subordinated debt market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1441-1460, May.
    15. Goyal, Vidhan K., 2005. "Market discipline of bank risk: Evidence from subordinated debt contracts," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 318-350, July.
    16. Chen, Yehning & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2011. "Subordinated debt, market discipline, and bank risk," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2011, Bank of Finland.
    17. Völz, Manja & Wedow, Michael, 2011. "Market discipline and too-big-to-fail in the CDS market: Does banks' size reduce market discipline?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 195-210, March.
    18. Völz, Manja & Wedow, Michael, 2009. "Does banks size distort market prices? Evidence for too-big-to-fail in the CDS market," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2009,06, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Allen Berger & Rima Turk-Ariss, 2015. "Do Depositors Discipline Banks and Did Government Actions During the Recent Crisis Reduce this Discipline? An International Perspective," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 103-126, October.
    20. Randall Kroszner, 2016. "A Review of Bank Funding Cost Differentials," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 151-174, June.
    21. Khoa TA Hoang & Robert Faff & Mamiza Haq, 2014. "Market discipline and bank risk taking," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 39(3), pages 327-350, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:50:y:2010:i:4:p:853-870. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaanzea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.