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“Bank risk behavior and connectedness in EMU countries”

Author

Listed:
  • Manish K. Singh

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)

  • Marta Gómez-Puig

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)

  • Simón Sosvilla-Rivero

    (Complutense Institute of International Economics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

Abstract

Given the structural differences in banking sector and financial regulation at country level in European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), this paper tries to estimate the banking sector risk behavior at country level. Based on contingent claim literature, it computes “Distance-to-default (DtD)” at bank level and analyses the aggregate series at country level for a representative set of banks over the period 2004-Q4 to 2013-Q2. The indices provide an intuitive, forward-looking and timely risk measure having strong correlations with national/regional market sentiment indicators. An underlying trend exists but causality tests suggest no systemic component. Cross-sectional differences in DtD suggests fragility in EMU countries 12-18 months prior to the crisis and better predictive ability than the regulatory index based on large and complex banking institutions at European level. Furthermore, we explore the reasons for this divergence using VAR estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Manish K. Singh & Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2015. "“Bank risk behavior and connectedness in EMU countries”," IREA Working Papers 201517, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jun 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:201517
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    Cited by:

    1. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2016. "Sovereign-bank linkages: Quantifying directional intensity of risk transfers in EMU countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 137-164.
    2. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2021. "Quantifying sovereign risk in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 76-96.
    3. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2024. "The diabolic loop between sovereign and banking risk in the euro area," IREA Working Papers 202406, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2024.
    4. António Afonso & Jorge Braga Ferreira, 2024. "Bank’s risk-taking channel of monetary policy and TLTRO: Evidence from the Eurozone," Working Papers REM 2024/0320, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    5. Brož, Václav & Kočenda, Evžen, 2022. "Mortgage-related bank penalties and systemic risk among U.S. banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    6. Chabot, Miia & Bertrand, Jean-Louis, 2021. "Complexity, interconnectedness and stability: New perspectives applied to the European banking system," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 784-800.
    7. Niţoi, Mihai & Pochea, Maria Miruna, 2022. "The nexus between bank connectedness and investors’ sentiment," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    8. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Manish K. Singh, 2018. "“The robustness of the sovereign-bank interconnection: Evidence from contingent claims analysis”," IREA Working Papers 201804, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2018.
    9. Uribe, Jorge M. & Chuliá, Helena & Guillén, Montserrat, 2017. "Uncertainty, systemic shocks and the global banking sector: Has the crisis modified their relationship?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 52-68.
    10. Apostolakis, George N. & Floros, Christos & Giannellis, Nikolaos, 2022. "On bank return and volatility spillovers: Identifying transmitters and receivers during crisis periods," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 156-176.
    11. Gomez-Puig, Marta & Singh, Manish K. & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 2019. "The sovereign-bank nexus in peripheral euro area: Further evidence from contingent claims analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-26.
    12. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    13. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Manish K. Singh, 2018. "“Incorporating creditors' seniority into contingent claim models:Application to peripheral euro area countries”," IREA Working Papers 201803, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2018.
    14. Salvador Climent-Serrano & Jose M. Pavía, 2015. "Determinants of profitability in Spanish financial institutions. Comparing aided and non-aided entities," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 1170-1184, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    contingent claim analysis; Distance-to-default; banking risk JEL classification: G01; G13; G21; G28;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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