Greek export performance: a constant market share analysis

Following the gains of Greek non-fuel goods export market shares in the period 2005-2008, a continuous decline was recorded in the period 2009-2015, with their recovery starting in 2016. In this paper, we decompose the changes in the Greek export market shares during the pre- and postcrisis periods by employing the constant market share analysis framework. Our results indicate that the pre-crisis market share gains can be attributed to the strong positive effect stemming from the geographical distribution of exports, fuelled by the strong trade growth in Greece’s main export markets (i.e. the euro area and Southeast Europe). The effect of the product composition of exports was almost neutral, while the competitiveness effect eroded more than half of the gains in the structure effect. In 2009-2018, the Greek export market share posted a decline that was mainly driven by the adverse competitiveness effect. The analysis of the last period (2016- 2018) indicates a number of important findings. The adverse competitiveness effect is diminishing; the structure effect turns from negative in 2009-2012 to positive in 2016-2018, driven mainly by the geographical distribution effect and secondarily by the product composition effect. However, despite the recent recovery, the market shares have not yet reached their 2008 levels.