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Mining semantic features in current reports for financial distress prediction: Empirical evidence from unlisted public firms in China

Author

Listed:
  • Jiang, Cuiqing
  • Lyu, Ximei
  • Yuan, Yufei
  • Wang, Zhao
  • Ding, Yong

Abstract

It is difficult to predict the financial distress of unlisted public firms due to their longer disclosure cycle of accounting information and more inadequate continuity of market trading information compared to listed firms. In this paper, we propose a framework to predict the financial distress of unlisted public firms using current reports. Specifically, to better represent the meaning of current report texts, we propose a semantic feature extraction method based on a word embedding technology. Empirical results show that current reports contain more effective information for predicting the financial distress of unlisted public firms compared with periodic reports. In addition, semantic features extracted using our proposed method significantly improve the predictive performance, and their enhancing effect is superior to that of topic features and sentiment features. Our study also provides implications for stakeholders such as investors and creditors.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Cuiqing & Lyu, Ximei & Yuan, Yufei & Wang, Zhao & Ding, Yong, 2022. "Mining semantic features in current reports for financial distress prediction: Empirical evidence from unlisted public firms in China," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1086-1099.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:38:y:2022:i:3:p:1086-1099
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.06.011
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    2. Soumya Ranjan Sethi & Dushyant Ashok Mahadik & Rajkiran V. Bilolikar, 2024. "Exploring Trends and Advancements in Financial Distress Prediction Research: A Bibliometric Study," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 164-179, January.
    3. Lifang Zhang & Mohammad Zoynul Abedin & Zhenkun Liu, 2024. "Incorporating media news to predict financial distress: Case study on Chinese listed companies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1374-1398, August.
    4. Ding, Shusheng & Cui, Tianxiang & Bellotti, Anthony Graham & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Lucey, Brian, 2023. "The role of feature importance in predicting corporate financial distress in pre and post COVID periods: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    5. Chi, Guotai & Dong, Bingjie & Zhou, Ying & Jin, Peng, 2024. "Long-horizon predictions of credit default with inconsistent customers," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    6. Yuanying Chi & Mingjian Yan & Yuexia Pang & Hongbo Lei, 2022. "Financial Risk Assessment of Photovoltaic Industry Listed Companies Based on Text Mining," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-17, September.

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