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A dual early warning model of bank distress

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  • Papanikolaou, Nikolaos I.

Abstract

We develop a model that estimates the joint determination of the probability of a distressed bank to go bankrupt or to be bailed out. We obtain precise parameter estimates and superior in- and out-of-sample forecasts, which demonstrate that the determinants of failures differ from those of bailouts. Overall, we provide a concrete and reliable mechanism for preventing welfare losses due to bank distress.

Suggested Citation

  • Papanikolaou, Nikolaos I., 2018. "A dual early warning model of bank distress," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 127-130.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:162:y:2018:i:c:p:127-130
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2017.10.028
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sinkey, Joseph F, Jr, 1975. "A Multivariate Statistical Analysis of the Characteristics of Problem Banks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(1), pages 21-36, March.
    2. Meyer, Paul A & Pifer, Howard W, 1970. "Prediction of Bank Failures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 853-868, September.
    3. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-124, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Norfaizah Othman & Mariani Abdul-Majid & Aisyah Abdul-Rahman, 2018. "Determinants of Banking Crises in ASEAN Countries," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 1-20, October.
    2. Citterio, Alberto, 2024. "Bank failure prediction models: Review and outlook," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    3. Grodecka-Messi, Anna & Kenny, Seán & Ögren, Anders, 2021. "Predictors of bank distress: The 1907 crisis in Sweden," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Evžen Kočenda & Ichiro Iwasaki, 2022. "Bank survival around the world: A meta‐analytic review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 108-156, February.
    5. Elena G. Shershneva, Min Zhou Hao, 2024. "Russian Banks Financial Stability Loss Diagnostic: Multidimensional Logit-Model Approach," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 23(2), pages 476-498.
    6. Irfan Nurfalah & Aam Slamet Rusydiana & Nisful Laila & Eko Fajar Cahyono, 2018. "Early Warning to Banking Crises in the Dual Financial System in Indonesia: The Markov Switching Approach التحذير المبكر من الأزمات المصرفية في النظام المالي المزدوج في إندونيسيا: مقاربة ماركوف للتحويل," Journal of King Abdulaziz University: Islamic Economics, King Abdulaziz University, Islamic Economics Institute., vol. 31(2), pages 133-156, July.
    7. Fiordelisi, Franco & Minnucci, Federica & Previati, Daniele & Ricci, Ornella, 2020. "Bail-in regulation and stock market reaction," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    8. Elena G. Shershneva, 2024. "CAMELS parameters’ impact on the risk of losing financial stability: The case of Russian banks," Journal of New Economy, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 130-152, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crisis; Bank distress; Early warning model; Forecasting power;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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