IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tpr/restat/v86y2004i4p946-958.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring, and the Survival of Loans

Author

Listed:
  • Kasper Roszbach

    (Sveriges Riksbank)

Abstract

To evaluate loan applicants, banks increasingly use credit scoring models. The objective of such models typically is to minimize default rates or the number of incorrectly classified loans. Thereby they fail to take into account that loans are multiperiod contracts, for which reason it is important for banks not only to know if but also when a loan will default. In this paper a bivariate tobit model with a variable censoring threshold and sample selection effects is estimated for (1) the decision to provide a loan or not and (2) the survival time of granted loans. The model proves to be an effective tool to separate applicants with short and with long survival times. The bank's loan provision process is shown to be inefficient: loans are granted in a way that conflicts with both default risk minimization and survival time maximization. There is thus no trade-off between higher default risk and higher return in the lending policy. © 2004 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Kasper Roszbach, 2004. "Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring, and the Survival of Loans," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 946-958, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:86:y:2004:i:4:p:946-958
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/0034653043125248
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacobson, Tor & Roszbach, Kasper, 2003. "Bank lending policy, credit scoring and value-at-risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 615-633, April.
    2. Stephen D. Williamson, 1987. "Costly Monitoring, Loan Contracts, and Equilibrium Credit Rationing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(1), pages 135-145.
    3. Dionne, Georges & Artis, Manuel & Guillen, Montserrat, 1996. "Count data models for a credit scoring system," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 303-325, September.
    4. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Roszbach, Kasper, 2001. "Dormancy risk and expected profits of consumer loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 717-739, April.
    5. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    6. Boyes, William J. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Low, Stuart A., 1989. "An econometric analysis of the bank credit scoring problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 3-14, January.
    7. Townsend, Robert M, 1982. "Optimal Multiperiod Contracts and the Gain from Enduring Relationships under Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1166-1186, December.
    8. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-124, January.
    9. Douglas Gale & Martin Hellwig, 1985. "Incentive-Compatible Debt Contracts: The One-Period Problem," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 52(4), pages 647-663.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elisa Ughetto & Andrea Vezzulli, 2011. "What role can mutual guarantee consortia play for financing innovation? A firm-level study for Italy," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(4), pages 294-319.
    2. Jessica Holmes & Jonathan Isham & Jessica Wasilewski, 2005. "Overcoming Information Asymmetries in Low‐Income Lending: Lessons from the “Working Wheels” Program," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(2), pages 329-351, October.
    3. Jacobson, Tor & Roszbach, Kasper, 2003. "Bank lending policy, credit scoring and value-at-risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 615-633, April.
    4. Innes, Robert, 1987. "Adverse Selection And Tax Externalities In A Model Of Entrepreneurial Investment," Working Papers 225812, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    5. Li, Yuanyuan & Wigniolle, Bertrand, 2017. "Endogenous information revelation in a competitive credit market and credit crunch," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 127-141.
    6. Longhofer, Stanley D., 1997. "Absolute Priority Rule Violations, Credit Rationing, and Efficiency," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 249-267, July.
    7. Anne Villamil & Stefan Krasa & Tridib Sharma, 2004. "Enforcement and Firm Finance," 2004 Meeting Papers 868, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Thomas Barnebeck Andersen & Finn Tarp, 2003. "Financial liberalization, financial development and economic growth in LDCs," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 189-209.
    9. Kjenstad, Einar C. & Su, Xunhua & Zhang, Li, 2015. "Credit rationing by loan size: A synthesized model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 20-27.
    10. Ma, Chien-Hui & Smith, Bruce D., 1996. "Credit market imperfections and economic development: Theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 351-387, March.
    11. Fachat, Christian, 2000. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and the Credit Channel of Monetary Transmission," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 3/2000, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    12. repec:bla:scotjp:v:49:y:2002:i:2:p:162-95 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Galema, Rients, 2020. "Credit rationing in P2P lending to SMEs: Do lender-borrower relationships matter?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    14. Mr. Rodolphe Blavy, 2005. "Monitoring and Commitment in Bank Lending Behavior," IMF Working Papers 2005/222, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Fachat, Christian, 2000. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 2/2000, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    16. Philip Lowe & Thomas Rohling, 1993. "Agency Costs, Balance Sheets and the Business Cycle," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9311, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    17. Saqib Jafarey & Sajal Lahiri, 2009. "Developing Country Borrowing From A Monopolistic Lender: Strategic Interactions And Endogenous Leadership," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 60(2), pages 191-207, June.
    18. Chaudry, Atif Saeed & Azmat, Saad & Sohail, Maryam, 2018. "State contingent and conventional banking: The optimal banking choice model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 167-177.
    19. Grimme, Christian, 2017. "Uncertainty and the Cost of Bank vs. Bond Finance," MPRA Paper 79852, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Stanley D. Longhofer, 1997. "Absolute priority rule violations, credit rationing, and efficiency," Working Papers (Old Series) 9710, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    21. Kaiser, Ulrich & Szczesny, Andrea, 2000. "Einfache ökonometrische Verfahren für die Kreditrisikomessung," CoFE Discussion Papers 00/28, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:86:y:2004:i:4:p:946-958. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kelly McDougall (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://direct.mit.edu/journals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.