IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v39y2014icp57-67.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic prediction of hedge fund survival in crisis-prone financial markets

Author

Listed:
  • Lee, Hee Soo
  • Kim, Tae Yoon

Abstract

This study focuses on dynamic changes in survival probabilities over the lifetimes of hedge funds. To model such probabilities, a mixed Cox proportional hazards (CPH) model-specifically, a survival/hazard model with time-varying covariates and fixed covariates- is employed. Resulting dynamic survival probabilities show that the mixed CPH model provides significantly higher accuracy in predicting hedge fund failure than other models in the literature, including fixed covariate CPH models and discrete logit models. Our results are useful to investors and regulators of hedge funds in crisis-prone financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Hee Soo & Kim, Tae Yoon, 2014. "Dynamic prediction of hedge fund survival in crisis-prone financial markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 57-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:39:y:2014:i:c:p:57-67
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.11.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426613004263
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.11.013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brown, Stephen J & Goetzmann, William N & Ibbotson, Roger G, 1999. "Offshore Hedge Funds: Survival and Performance, 1989-95," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(1), pages 91-117, January.
    2. Vikas Agarwal & Naveen D. Daniel & Narayan Y. Naik, 2009. "Role of Managerial Incentives and Discretion in Hedge Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2221-2256, October.
    3. Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann & James Park, 2001. "Careers and Survival: Competition and Risk in the Hedge Fund and CTA Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1869-1886, October.
    4. Baquero, Guillermo & ter Horst, Jenke & Verbeek, Marno, 2005. "Survival, Look-Ahead Bias, and Persistence in Hedge Fund Performance," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(3), pages 493-517, September.
    5. Nicole M. Boyson & Christof W. Stahel & René M. Stulz, 2010. "Hedge Fund Contagion and Liquidity Shocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(5), pages 1789-1816, October.
    6. Agarwal, Vikas & Daniel, Naveen D. & Naik, Narayan Y., 2009. "Role of managerial incentives and discretion in hedge fund performance," CFR Working Papers 04-04, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    7. Carl Ackermann & Richard McEnally & David Ravenscraft, 1999. "The Performance of Hedge Funds: Risk, Return, and Incentives," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 833-874, June.
    8. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-124, January.
    9. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 1997. "Empirical Characteristics of Dynamic Trading Strategies: The Case of Hedge Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 275-302.
    10. G N Gregoriou, 2002. "Hedge fund survival lifetimes," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 3(3), pages 237-252, December.
    11. Liang, Bing, 2000. "Hedge Funds: The Living and the Dead," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 309-326, September.
    12. Liang, Bing & Park, Hyuna, 2010. "Predicting Hedge Fund Failure: A Comparison of Risk Measures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 199-222, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrew W. Lo & Mila Getmansky & Peter A. Lee, 2015. "Hedge Funds: A Dynamic Industry in Transition," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 483-577, December.
    2. Faff, Robert W. & Parwada, Jerry T. & Tan, Eric K.M., 2019. "Did connected hedge funds benefit from bank bailouts during the financial crisis?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Dai, Na & Nahata, Rajarishi & Brauner, Aaron, 2022. "Does individualism matter for hedge funds? A cross-country examination," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Hwang, Inchang & Xu, Simon & In, Francis & Kim, Tong Suk, 2017. "Systemic risk and cross-sectional hedge fund returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 109-130.
    5. Douglas Cumming & Na Dai, 2010. "A Law and Finance Analysis of Hedge Funds," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(3), pages 997-1026, September.
    6. Guillermo Baquero & Marno Verbeek, 2022. "Hedge Fund Flows and Performance Streaks: How Investors Weigh Information," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 4151-4172, June.
    7. Judy Qiu & Leilei Tang & Ingo Walter, 2018. "Hedge fund incentives, management commitment and survivorship," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 32(2), pages 115-142, May.
    8. Shawky, Hany A. & Dai, Na & Cumming, Douglas, 2012. "Diversification in the hedge fund industry," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 166-178.
    9. Cumming, Douglas & Dai, Na & Johan, Sofia, 2015. "Are hedge funds registered in Delaware different?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 232-246.
    10. George J. Jiang & Bing Liang & Huacheng Zhang, 2022. "Hedge Fund Manager Skill and Style-Shifting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(3), pages 2284-2307, March.
    11. Di Tommaso, Caterina & Piluso, Fabio, 2018. "The failure of hedge funds: An analysis of the impact of different risk classes," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 121-133.
    12. Benoît Dewaele, 2013. "Leverage and Alpha: The Case of Funds of Hedge Funds," Working Papers CEB 13-033, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    13. El Kalak, Izidin & Azevedo, Alcino & Hudson, Robert, 2016. "Reviewing the hedge funds literature I: Hedge funds and hedge funds' managerial characteristics," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 85-97.
    14. Bussière, Matthieu & Hoerova, Marie & Klaus, Benjamin, 2015. "Commonality in hedge fund returns: Driving factors and implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 266-280.
    15. Agarwal, Vikas & Ruenzi, Stefan & Weigert, Florian, 2017. "Tail risk in hedge funds: A unique view from portfolio holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 610-636.
    16. Benoît Dewaele, 2013. "Portfolio Optimization for Hedge Funds through Time-Varying Coefficients," Working Papers CEB 13-032, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    17. Agarwal, Vikas & Fos, Vyacheslav & Jiang, Wei, 2012. "Inferring reporting biases in hedge fund databases from hedge fund equity holdings," CFR Working Papers 10-08 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    18. Agarwal, Vikas & Fos, Vyacheslav & Jiang, Wei, 2010. "Inferring reporting biases in hedge fund databases from hedge fund equity holdings," CFR Working Papers 10-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    19. Kosowski, Robert & Joenväärä, Juha & Kaupila, Mikko & Tolonen, Pekka, 2019. "Hedge Fund Performance: Are Stylized Facts Sensitive to Which Database One Uses?," CEPR Discussion Papers 13618, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Alex Grecu & Burton G. Malkiel & Atanu Saha, 2006. "Why Do Hedge Funds Stop Reporting Their Performance?," Working Papers 78, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hedge fund failure; Mixed Cox proportional hazards model; Time-varying covariates; Survival probability prediction; Crisis-prone financial markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:39:y:2014:i:c:p:57-67. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.