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An Error Component Logit Analysis of Corporate Bankruptcy and Insolvency Risk in Australia

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  • DAVID A. HENSHER
  • STEWART JONES
  • WILLIAM H. GREENE

Abstract

This paper introduces a four‐state failure model to depict a wider range of distress scenarios that public companies typically face in the real world. We use a multinomial error component logit model to analyse firm failure, a major advance on the modelling techniques used in previous research. The error component logit model, being an extension of the more familiar mixed logit model, relaxes several questionable statistical assumptions associated with standard models. Using a sample of Australian firms we provide an interpretative illustration of the error component logit model and contrast its behavioural performance with the standard logit model widely used in previous research.

Suggested Citation

  • David A. Hensher & Stewart Jones & William H. Greene, 2007. "An Error Component Logit Analysis of Corporate Bankruptcy and Insolvency Risk in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(260), pages 86-103, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:83:y:2007:i:260:p:86-103
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.2007.00378.x
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    4. Hoyos Ramos, David & Mariel Chladkova, Petr & Meyerhoff, Jürgen, 2010. "Comparing the performance of different approaches to deal with attribute non-attendance in discrete choice experiments: a simulation experiment," BILTOKI 1134-8984, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística).
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    14. Nan Hu & Jian Li & Alexis Meyer-Cirkel, 2019. "Completing the Market: Generating Shadow CDS Spreads by Machine Learning," IMF Working Papers 2019/292, International Monetary Fund.
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    16. Peter Grösche & Colin Vance, 2008. "Willingness-to-Pay for Energy Conservation and Free-Ridership on Subsidization – Evidence from Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 0058, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    17. Jones, Stewart & Wang, Tim, 2019. "Predicting private company failure: A multi-class analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 161-188.
    18. Dawen Yan & Guotai Chi & Kin Keung Lai, 2020. "Financial Distress Prediction and Feature Selection in Multiple Periods by Lassoing Unconstrained Distributed Lag Non-linear Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-27, August.
    19. Peter Grösche & Colin Vance, 2009. "Willingness to Pay for Energy Conservation and Free-Ridership on Subsidization: Evidence from Germany," The Energy Journal, , vol. 30(2), pages 135-154, April.
    20. Huong Dang, 2014. "A Competing Risks Dynamic Hazard Approach to Investigate the Insolvency Outcomes of Property-Casualty Insurers," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 39(1), pages 42-76, January.
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    22. Ulf Liebe & Veronika A. Andorfer & Patricia A. Gwartney & Jürgen Meyerhoff, 2014. "Ethical Consumption and Social Context: Experimental Evidence from Germany and the United States," University of Bern Social Sciences Working Papers 7, University of Bern, Department of Social Sciences.

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