Bankruptcy Prediction with a Doubly Stochastic Poisson Forward Intensity Model and Low-Quality Data
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007.
"Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
- Darrel Duffie & Leandro Saita & Ke Wang, 2005. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-373, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Darrel Duffie & Leandro Saita & Ke Wang, 2005. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," CARF F-Series CARF-F-047, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- Darrell Duffie & Leandro Siata & Ke Wang, 2006. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," NBER Working Papers 11962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cerrato, Mario & Zhang, Xuan, 2017. "Analysing the determinants of insolvency risk for general insurance firms in the UK," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 107-122.
- Duan, Jin-Chuan & Sun, Jie & Wang, Tao, 2012. "Multiperiod corporate default prediction—A forward intensity approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 191-209.
- Maria Aluchna & Tomasz Berent & Bogumił Kamiński, 2019. "Dividend Payouts and Shareholder Structure: Evidence from the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(3), pages 227-250, May.
- Leland, Hayne E, 1994.
"Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-1252, September.
- Hayne E. Leland., 1994. "Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-233, University of California at Berkeley.
- Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974.
"On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Viral V. Acharya & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger, 2024.
"Zombie Credit and (Dis‐)Inflation: Evidence from Europe,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1883-1929, June.
- Viral V. Acharya & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger, 2020. "Zombie Credit and (Dis-)Inflation: Evidence from Europe," NBER Working Papers 27158, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Viral V. Acharya & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger, 2020. "Zombie Credit and (Dis-)Inflation: Evidence from Europe," Staff Reports 955, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Acharya, Viral & Crosignani, Matteo & Eisert, Tim & Eufinger, Christian, 2020. "Zombie Credit and (Dis-)Inflation: Evidence from Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 14960, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ke Wang & Darrell Duffie, 2004.
"Multi-Period Corporate Failure Prediction With Stochastic Covariates,"
Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings
747, Econometric Society.
- Darrell Duffie & Ke Wang, 2004. "Multi-Period Corporate Failure Prediction with Stochastic Covariates," NBER Working Papers 10743, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ke Wang & Darrell Duffie, 2004. "Multi-Period Corporate Failure Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 745, Econometric Society.
- Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
- Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
- Zmijewski, Me, 1984. "Methodological Issues Related To The Estimation Of Financial Distress Prediction Models," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22, pages 59-82.
- Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Boris Hofmann, 2018. "The rise of zombie firms: causes and consequences," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
- Duan, Jin-Chuan & Kim, Baeho & Kim, Woojin & Shin, Donghwa, 2018. "Default probabilities of privately held firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 235-250.
- Robert A. Jarrow & Fan Yu, 2008.
"Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities,"
World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 20, pages 481-515,
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Robert A. Jarrow & Fan Yu, 2001. "Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1765-1799, October.
- Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2001. "Do Credit Spreads Reflect Stationary Leverage Ratios?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1929-1957, October.
- repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:1:p:19-40 is not listed on IDEAS
- Beaver, Wh, 1966. "Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4, pages 71-111.
- Sudheer Chava & Robert A. Jarrow, 2008.
"Bankruptcy Prediction with Industry Effects,"
World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 21, pages 517-549,
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Sudheer Chava & Robert A. Jarrow, 2004. "Bankruptcy Prediction with Industry Effects," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 8(4), pages 537-569.
- Beaver, Wh, 1968. "Market Prices, Financial Ratios, And Prediction Of Failure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 179-192.
- Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-124, January.
- Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2011. "Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 233-250.
- Nguyen, Ha, 2023. "An empirical application of Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo to frailty correlated default models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 103-121.
- Kay Giesecke & Francis A. Longstaff & Stephen Schaefer & Ilya Strebulaev, 2010. "Corporate Bond Default Risk: A 150-Year Perspective," NBER Working Papers 15848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ha Nguyen, 2023. "Particle MCMC in forecasting frailty correlated default models with expert opinion," Papers 2304.11586, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
- Duan, Jin-Chuan & Sun, Jie & Wang, Tao, 2012. "Multiperiod corporate default prediction—A forward intensity approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 191-209.
- Elizabeth Gutierrez & Jake Krupa & Miguel Minutti-Meza & Maria Vulcheva, 2020. "Do going concern opinions provide incremental information to predict corporate defaults?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 1344-1381, December.
- Cathcart, Lara & Dufour, Alfonso & Rossi, Ludovico & Varotto, Simone, 2020. "The differential impact of leverage on the default risk of small and large firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
- Zhang, Xuan & Zhao, Yang & Yao, Xiao, 2022. "Forecasting corporate default risk in China," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1054-1070.
- Ahsan Habib & Mabel D' Costa & Hedy Jiaying Huang & Md. Borhan Uddin Bhuiyan & Li Sun, 2020. "Determinants and consequences of financial distress: review of the empirical literature," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(S1), pages 1023-1075, April.
- Huang, Hsing-Hua & Lee, Han-Hsing, 2013. "Product market competition and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 324-340.
- Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007.
"Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
- Darrel Duffie & Leandro Saita & Ke Wang, 2005. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-373, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Darrell Duffie & Leandro Siata & Ke Wang, 2006. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," NBER Working Papers 11962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Darrel Duffie & Leandro Saita & Ke Wang, 2005. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," CARF F-Series CARF-F-047, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- Anand Deo & Sandeep Juneja, 2021. "Credit Risk: Simple Closed-Form Approximate Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 69(2), pages 361-379, March.
- Zhang, Xuan & Ouyang, Ruolan & Liu, Ding & Xu, Liao, 2020. "Determinants of corporate default risk in China: The role of financial constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 87-98.
- Vo, D.H. & Pham, B.V.-N. & Pham, T.V.-T. & McAleer, M.J., 2019.
"Corporate Financial Distress of Industry Level Listings in an Emerging Market,"
Econometric Institute Research Papers
EI2019-15, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Duc Hong Vo & Binh Vo-Ninh Pham & Trung Vu-Thanh Pham & Michael McAleer, 2019. "Corporate Financial Distress of Industry Level Listings in an Emerging Market," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2019-09, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- Viral Acharya & Sergei A. Davydenko & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2012.
"Cash Holdings and Credit Risk,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3572-3609.
- Acharya, Viral & Strebulaev, Ilya & Davydenko, Sergei A., 2009. "Cash Holdings and Credit Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 7125, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Viral V. Acharya & Sergei A. Davydenko & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2011. "Cash Holdings and Credit Risk," NBER Working Papers 16995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anand Deo & Sandeep Juneja, 2019. "Credit Risk: Simple Closed Form Approximate Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Papers 1912.12611, arXiv.org.
- Hyeongjun Kim & Hoon Cho & Doojin Ryu, 2020. "Corporate Default Predictions Using Machine Learning: Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-11, August.
- Ruey-Ching Hwang & Chih-Kang Chu, 2013. "Forecasting forward defaults: a simple hazard model with competing risks," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 1467-1477, August.
- Chan, Steven & Han, Gaofeng & Zhang, Wenlang, 2016. "How strong are the linkages between real estate and other sectors in China?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 52-72.
- William H. Beaver & Stefano Cascino & Maria Correia & Maureen F. McNichols, 2019. "Group Affiliation and Default Prediction," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(8), pages 3559-3584, August.
More about this item
Keywords
default; bankruptcy risk; Poisson process; doubly stochastic assumption; ROC curve; accuracy ratio; leverage;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:9:y:2021:i:12:p:217-:d:693252. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.