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Investment opportunities and bankruptcy prediction

Author

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  • Lyandres, Evgeny
  • Zhdanov, Alexei

Abstract

A firm's mix of growth options and assets in place is an important determinant of its optimal default strategy. Our simple model shows that shareholders of a firm with valuable investment opportunities would be able/willing to wait longer before defaulting on their contractual debt obligations than shareholders of an otherwise identical firm without such opportunities. More importantly, we show empirically using a dataset of recent corporate bankruptcies that measures of investment opportunities are significantly related to the likelihood of bankruptcy. Augmenting existing bankruptcy prediction models by these measures improves their out-of-sample forecasting ability.

Suggested Citation

  • Lyandres, Evgeny & Zhdanov, Alexei, 2013. "Investment opportunities and bankruptcy prediction," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 439-476.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:16:y:2013:i:3:p:439-476
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2012.10.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Mahdi Mousavi & Jamal Ouenniche & Kaoru Tone, 2023. "A dynamic performance evaluation of distress prediction models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 756-784, July.
    2. Abinzano, Isabel & Gonzalez-Urteaga, Ana & Muga, Luis & Sanchez, Santiago, 2020. "Performance of default-risk measures: the sample matters," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    3. Agata Gniadkowska-Szymańska, 2022. "The liquidity of shares and the risk of bankruptcy," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 53(6), pages 565-586.
    4. Jiao, Feng & Zhang, Chuanqian, 2022. "Lumpy investment and credit risk," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Adriana Csikosova & Maria Janoskova & Katarina Culkova, 2020. "Application of Discriminant Analysis for Avoiding the Risk of Quarry Operation Failure," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-14, September.
    6. Inekwe, John Nkwoma & Jin, Yi & Valenzuela, Ma. Rebecca, 2018. "The effects of financial distress: Evidence from US GDP growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 8-21.
    7. Tomasz Korol, 2019. "Dynamic Bankruptcy Prediction Models for European Enterprises," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-15, December.
    8. Iwanicz-Drozdowska, Małgorzata & Jackowicz, Krzysztof & Kozłowski, Łukasz, 2018. "SMEs' near-death experiences. Do local banks extend a helping hand?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 47-65.
    9. Andrés, Pablo de & Fuente, Gabriel de la & Velasco, Pilar, 2021. "Exercising a firm’s growth options: A portfolio approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 571-585.
    10. Yehuda Pivin & Yossi Yagil, 2024. "The relationship between institutional investors’ holding in public firms and the level of corporate solvency," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 28(4), pages 1237-1256, December.
    11. Adler Haymans Manurung & Derwin Suhartono & Benny Hutahayan & Noptovius Halimawan, 2023. "Probability Bankruptcy Using Support Vector Regression Machines," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 13(1), pages 1-3.
    12. Li-Su Huang, 2022. "Directors and officers liability insurance and default risk," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 47(2), pages 375-408, April.
    13. Fedorova, Elena & Ledyaeva, Svetlana & Drogovoz, Pavel & Nevredinov, Alexandr, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and bankruptcy filings," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    14. Mohammad Mahdi Mousavi & Jamal Ouenniche, 2018. "Multi-criteria ranking of corporate distress prediction models: empirical evaluation and methodological contributions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 853-886, December.
    15. Sebastian Gryglewicz & Barney Hartman-Glaser & Geoffery Zheng, 2020. "Growth Options, Incentives, and Pay for Performance: Theory and Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(3), pages 1248-1277, March.
    16. Ali, Searat & Liu, Benjamin & Su, Jen Je, 2018. "Does corporate governance quality affect default risk? The role of growth opportunities and stock liquidity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 422-448.
    17. Mabe, Queen Magadi & Lin, Wei, 2018. "Determinants of Corporate Failure: The Case of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 88485, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment opportunities; Bankruptcy;

    JEL classification:

    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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