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Incorporating the dynamics of leverage into default prediction

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  • Löffler, Gunter
  • Maurer, Alina

Abstract

A firm’s current leverage ratio is one of the core characteristics of credit quality used in statistical default prediction models. Based on the capital structure literature, which shows that leverage is mean-reverting to a target leverage, we forecast future leverage ratios and include them in the set of default risk drivers. An out-of-sample analysis of default predictions from a hazard model reveals that the discriminative power increases substantially when leverage forecasts are included. We further document that credit ratings contain information beyond the one contained in standard variables but that this information is unrelated to forecasts of leverage ratios.

Suggested Citation

  • Löffler, Gunter & Maurer, Alina, 2011. "Incorporating the dynamics of leverage into default prediction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3351-3361.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:12:p:3351-3361
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.05.015
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    Cited by:

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    2. Nicola Branzoli & Antonella Caiumi, 2020. "How effective is an incremental ACE in addressing the debt bias? Evidence from corporate tax returns," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(6), pages 1485-1519, December.
    3. Emilia Bonaccorsi di Patti & Alessio D’Ignazio & Marco Gallo & Giacinto Micucci, 2015. "The Role of Leverage in Firm Solvency: Evidence From Bank Loans," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 1(2), pages 253-286, July.
    4. Mehmet Serkan Tosun & Serhat Yildiz, 2020. "How Does Aggregate Tax Policy Uncertainty Affect Default Risk?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Salwa Kessioui & Michalis Doumpos & Constantin Zopounidis, 2023. "A Bibliometric Overview of the State-of-the-Art in Bankruptcy Prediction Methods and Applications," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Emilios Galariotis & Alexandros Garefalakis & Christos Lemonakis & Marios Menexiadis & Constantin Zo (ed.), Governance and Financial Performance Current Trends and Perspectives, chapter 6, pages 123-153, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Brezigar-Masten, Arjana & Masten, Igor & Volk, Matjaž, 2021. "Modelin-g credit risk with a Tobit model of days past due," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    7. Bank for International Settlements, 2022. "Private sector debt and financial stability," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 67, december.
    8. Wang, Li-Hsun & Lin, Chu-Hsiung & Fung, Hung-Gay & Chen, Hsien-Ming, 2015. "Governance mechanisms and downside risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 485-498.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Default prediction; Discrete duration model; Leverage targeting; Mean reversion; Credit rating;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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