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Default prediction with dynamic sectoral and macroeconomic frailties

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  • Chen, Peimin
  • Wu, Chunchi

Abstract

This paper extends the macroeconomic frailty model to include sectoral frailty factors that capture default correlations among firms in a similar business. We estimate sectoral and macroeconomic frailty factors and their effects on default intensity using the data for Japanese firms from 1992 to 2010. We find strong evidence for the presence of sectoral frailty factors even after accounting for the effects of observable covariates and macroeconomic frailty on default intensity. The model with sectoral frailties performs better than that without. Results show that accounting for the sources of unobserved sectoral default risk covariations improves the accuracy of default probability estimation.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Peimin & Wu, Chunchi, 2014. "Default prediction with dynamic sectoral and macroeconomic frailties," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 211-226.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:40:y:2014:i:c:p:211-226
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.11.036
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    Cited by:

    1. Escribano, Ana & Maggi, Mario, 2019. "Intersectoral default contagion: A multivariate Poisson autoregression analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 376-400.
    2. Yun Xie & Yixiang Tian & Zhuang Xiao & Xiangyun Zhou, 2018. "Dependence of credit spread and macro-conditions based on an alterable structure model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(5), pages 1-15, May.
    3. Nigmonov, Asror & Shams, Syed & Alam, Khorshed, 2022. "Macroeconomic determinants of loan defaults: Evidence from the U.S. peer-to-peer lending market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    4. Jun†Tae Han & Jae†Seok Choi & Myeon†Jung Kim & Jina Jeong, 2018. "Developing a Risk Group Predictive Model for Korean Students Falling into Bad Debt," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 3-14, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Default risk; Hazard rate function; Frailty; Distance to default; Tail loss; Monte Carlo expectations maximization (EM); Gibbs sampler;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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