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On the prediction of corporate financial distress in the light of the financial crisis: empirical evidence from Greek listed firms

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  • Evangelos C. Charalambakis

    (Bank of Greece)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of accounting and market-driven information on the prediction of bankruptcy for Greek firms using the discrete hazard approach. The findings show that a hazard model that incorporates three accounting ratio components of Z-score and three market-driven variables is the most appropriate model for the prediction of corporate financial distress in Greece. This model outperforms a univariate model that uses the expected default frequency (EDF) derived from the Merton distance to default model, a multivariate model that is exclusively based on accounting variables, a model that combines EDF and accounting variables and a multivariate model that uses only market-driven variables. In-sample forecast accuracy tests confirm the main results. The out-of-sample evidence also suggests that the model yields the highest predictive ability during financial crisis when using data prior to the financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Evangelos C. Charalambakis, 2013. "On the prediction of corporate financial distress in the light of the financial crisis: empirical evidence from Greek listed firms," Working Papers 164, Bank of Greece.
    • Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:164
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Angeliki Papana & Anastasia Spyridou, 2020. "Bankruptcy Prediction: The Case of the Greek Market," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Dimitris Papageorgiou & Stylianos Tsiaras, 2021. "The Greek Great Depression from a neoclassical perspective," Working Papers 286, Bank of Greece.
    3. Evangelos C. Charalambakis & Ian Garrett, 2019. "On corporate financial distress prediction: What can we learn from private firms in a developing economy? Evidence from Greece," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 467-491, February.
    4. Venkata Mrudula Bhimavarapu & Shailesh Rastogi & Jagjeevan Kanoujiya & Aashi Rawal, 2023. "Repercussion of financial distress and corporate disclosure on the valuation of non-financial firms in India," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial distress; financial forecasting; hazard model; expected default frequency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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