IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bgu/wpaper/0505.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ratings as Predictors of Default in the Long Term:an Empirical Investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Koresh Galil

    (BGU)

Abstract

The quality of external credit ratings has scarcely been examined. The common thesis is that the rating firms’ need for reputation and competitiveness in the rating industry force rating agencies to provide ratings that are efficient with respect to the information available at the time of rating. In this paper I use survival analysis to test the quality of S&P corporate ratings in the years 1983-1993 with respect to prediction of default in the long term. I provide evidence that with this respect ratings could be improved by using publicly available information such as provision of collateral, leverage and size.

Suggested Citation

  • Koresh Galil, 2005. "Ratings as Predictors of Default in the Long Term:an Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 0505, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bgu:wpaper:0505
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://in.bgu.ac.il/en/humsos/Econ/Workingpapers/0505.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Doron Kliger & Oded Sarig, 2000. "The Information Value of Bond Ratings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2879-2902, December.
    2. Kaplan, Robert S & Urwitz, Gabriel, 1979. "Statistical Models of Bond Ratings: A Methodological Inquiry," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(2), pages 231-261, April.
    3. Guedes, Jose & Opler, Tim, 1996. "The Determinants of the Maturity of Corporate Debt Issues," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1809-1833, December.
    4. Pu Liu & Fazal J. Seyyed & Stanley D. Smith, 1999. "The Independent Impact of Credit Rating Changes - The Case of Moody's Rating Refinement on Yield Premiums," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3-4), pages 337-363.
    5. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:4:p:1389-1413 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Marshall E. Blume & Felix Lim & A. Craig MacKinlay, "undated". "The Declining Credit Quality of US Corporate Debt: Myth or Reality?," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 3-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    7. Altman, Edward I. & Haldeman, Robert G. & Narayanan, P., 1977. "ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-54, June.
    8. Hand, John R M & Holthausen, Robert W & Leftwich, Richard W, 1992. "The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 733-752, June.
    9. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    10. Griffin, Paul A & Sanvicente, Antonio Z, 1982. "Common Stock Returns and Rating Changes: A Methodological Comparison," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 103-119, March.
    11. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-124, January.
    12. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    13. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    14. Zmijewski, Me, 1984. "Methodological Issues Related To The Estimation Of Financial Distress Prediction Models," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22, pages 59-82.
    15. Alessandro Lizzeri, 1999. "Information Revelation and Certification Intermediaries," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 30(2), pages 214-231, Summer.
    16. Lawrence J. White, 2001. "The Credit Rating Industry: An Industrial Organization Analysis," Working Papers 01-02, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    17. Horrigan, Jo, 1966. "Determination Of Long-Term Credit Standing With Financial Ratios," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4, pages 44-62.
    18. Marshall E. Blume & Felix Lim & A. Craig MacKinlay, "undated". "The Declining Credit Quality of US Corporate Debt: Myth or Reality?," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 03-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    19. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 18, pages 411-453, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Pinches, George E & Mingo, Kent A, 1973. "A Multivariate Analysis of Industrial Bond Ratings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 1-18, March.
    21. Pinches, George E & Singleton, J Clay, 1978. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to Bond Rating Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 29-44, March.
    22. West, Richard R, 1973. "Bond Ratings, Bond Yields and Financial Regulation: Some Findings," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 159-168, April.
    23. Bester, Helmut, 1985. "Screening vs. Rationing in Credit Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 850-855, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ruey‐Ching Hwang & K. F. Cheng & Cheng‐Few Lee, 2009. "On multiple‐class prediction of issuer credit ratings," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(5), pages 535-550, September.
    2. Nidhi Aggarwal & Manish K. Singh & Susan Thomas, 2022. "Informational efficiency of credit ratings," Working Papers 14, xKDR.
    3. Hwang, Ruey-Ching & Chung, Huimin & Chu, C.K., 2010. "Predicting issuer credit ratings using a semiparametric method," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 120-137, January.
    4. Van Laere, Elisabeth & Baesens, Bart, 2010. "The development of a simple and intuitive rating system under Solvency II," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 500-510, June.
    5. Rubina Shaheen & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2014. "Effect of Credit Rating on Firm Performance and Stock Return; Evidence form KSE Listed Firms," PIDE-Working Papers 2014:104, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    6. Ruey-Ching Hwang, 2013. "Forecasting credit ratings with the varying-coefficient model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 1947-1965, December.
    7. Aggarwal, Nidhi & Singh, Manish K. & Thomas, Susan, 2023. "Do decreases in Distance-to-Default predict rating downgrades?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    8. Manzoni, Katiuscia, 2004. "Modeling Eurobond credit ratings and forecasting downgrade probability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 277-300.
    9. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Manish K. Singh, 2018. "“Incorporating creditors' seniority into contingent claim models:Application to peripheral euro area countries”," IREA Working Papers 201803, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2018.
    10. Ken Hung & Hui Wen Cheng & Shih-shen Chen & Ying-Chen Huang, 2013. "Factors that Affect Credit Rating: An Application of Ordered Probit Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 94-108, December.
    11. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "Bank risk behavior and connectedness in EMU countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 161-184.
    12. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
    13. Tsung-Kang Chen & Hsien-Hsing Liao & Chia-Wu Lu, 2011. "A flow-based corporate credit model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 517-532, May.
    14. Emilia Bonaccorsi di Patti & Alessio D’Ignazio & Marco Gallo & Giacinto Micucci, 2015. "The Role of Leverage in Firm Solvency: Evidence From Bank Loans," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 1(2), pages 253-286, July.
    15. Mizen, Paul & Tsoukas, Serafeim, 2012. "Forecasting US bond default ratings allowing for previous and initial state dependence in an ordered probit model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 273-287.
    16. Chamroeun Sok, 2012. "Corporate Credit Rating Announcements: Information Content of Rating Announcements Models: Evidence from the Australian Financial Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 4-2012, January-A.
    17. Alexandros Benos & George Papanastasopoulos, 2005. "Extending the Merton Model: A Hybrid Approach to Assessing Credit Quality," Finance 0505020, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2005.
    18. Ying Zhou & Xia Lin & Guotai Chi & Peng Jin & Mengtong Li, 2024. "EWT‐SMOTE to improve default prediction performance in imbalanced data: Analysis of Chinese data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 615-643, April.
    19. Manish K. Singh & Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2014. "“Forward Looking Banking Stress in EMU Countries”," IREA Working Papers 201421, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2014.
    20. Beaver, William H. & Shakespeare, Catherine & Soliman, Mark T., 2006. "Differential properties in the ratings of certified versus non-certified bond-rating agencies," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 303-334, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit Risk; Credit Rating; Corporate Bonds; Survival Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bgu:wpaper:0505. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aamer Abu-Qarn (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edbguil.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.