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Assessing the default risk by means of a discrete‐time survival analysis approach

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  • Daniele De Leonardis
  • Roberto Rocci

Abstract

In this paper, the problem of company distress is assessed by means of a multi‐period model that exploits the potentialities of the survival analysis approach when both survival times and regressors are measured at discrete points in time. The discrete‐time hazards model can be used both as an empirical framework in the analysis of the causes of the deterioration process that leads to the default and as a tool for the prediction of the same event. Our results show that the prediction accuracy of the duration model is better than that provided by a single‐period logistic model. It is also shown that the predictive power of the discrete‐time survival analysis is enhanced when it is extended to allow for unobserved individual heterogeneity (frailty). Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniele De Leonardis & Roberto Rocci, 2008. "Assessing the default risk by means of a discrete‐time survival analysis approach," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(4), pages 291-306, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:apsmbi:v:24:y:2008:i:4:p:291-306
    DOI: 10.1002/asmb.705
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    Cited by:

    1. Hao Wang & Anthony Bellotti & Rong Qu & Ruibin Bai, 2024. "Discrete-Time Survival Models with Neural Networks for Age–Period–Cohort Analysis of Credit Risk," Risks, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-26, February.
    2. Oliver Blümke, 2022. "Multiperiod default probability forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 677-696, July.
    3. Jackson P. Lautier & Vladimir Pozdnyakov & Jun Yan, 2022. "On the Convergence of Credit Risk in Current Consumer Automobile Loans," Papers 2211.09176, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    4. Joseph L. Breeden, 2024. "An Age–Period–Cohort Framework for Profit and Profit Volatility Modeling," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-23, May.

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