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Explaining Credit Ratings of Australian Companies—An Application of the Merton Model

Author

Listed:
  • Suparatana Tanthanongsakkun

    (Department of Banking and Finance, Chulalongkorn University, 254 Phyathai Road, Patumwan, Bangkok Thailand. 10330)

  • Sirimon Treepongkaruna

    (School of Finance and Applied Statistics, College of Business and Economics, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200.)

Abstract

This paper examines how the default likelihood indicator computed from the option-based model of Merton (1974) together with two default-related factors, namely firm size and book-to-market ratio, effectively explain credit ratings when compared to accounting ratios. Using Australian companies that are rated by Standard and Poor's during 1992–2003 and ordered probit analysis we find that the market-based model is more informative in explaining credit ratings than the accounting-based model.

Suggested Citation

  • Suparatana Tanthanongsakkun & Sirimon Treepongkaruna, 2008. "Explaining Credit Ratings of Australian Companies—An Application of the Merton Model," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 33(2), pages 261-275, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ausman:v:33:y:2008:i:2:p:261-275
    DOI: 10.1177/031289620803300203
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
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    5. Marshall E. Blume & Felix Lim & A. Craig MacKinlay, "undated". "The Declining Credit Quality of US Corporate Debt: Myth or Reality?," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 03-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    6. Philip Gharghori & Howard Chan & Robert Faff, 2006. "Investigating the Performance of Alternative Default-Risk Models: Option-Based Versus Accounting-Based Approaches," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 31(2), pages 207-234, December.
    7. Altman, Edward I. & Haldeman, Robert G. & Narayanan, P., 1977. "ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-54, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Trujillo-Ponce & Reyes Samaniego-Medina & Clara Cardone-Riportella, 2014. "Examining what best explains corporate credit risk: accounting-based versus market-based models," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 253-276, April.
    2. repec:pab:wpbsad:12.07 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Rubina Shaheen & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2014. "Effect of Credit Rating on Firm Performance and Stock Return; Evidence form KSE Listed Firms," PIDE-Working Papers 2014:104, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    4. Maria H. Kim & Graham Partington, 2015. "Dynamic forecasts of financial distress of Australian firms," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 40(1), pages 135-160, February.
    5. David E Allen & Robert Powell, 2012. "The fluctuating default risk of Australian banks," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 37(2), pages 297-325, August.

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