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Agustin Maravall

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Working papers

  1. Agustín Maravall Herrero & Domingo Pérez Cañete, 2011. "Applying and interpreting model-based seasonal adjustment. The euro-area industrial production series," Working Papers 1116, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Daniel Parra Amado, 2014. "Efectos calendario sobre la producción industrial en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 820, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

  2. Agustín Maravall & Ana del Río, 2007. "Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Working Papers 0728, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Álvarez, Luis J. & Gómez-Loscos, Ana, 2018. "A menu on output gap estimation methods," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 827-850.
    2. Sbrana, Giacomo, 2013. "The exact linkage between the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition and other permanent-transitory decompositions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 311-316.
    3. Andreas Billmeier, 2009. "Ghostbusting: which output gap really matters?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 391-419, December.
    4. Francisco J. Ib��ez-Hern�ndez & Miguel �. Pe�a-Cerezo & Andr�s Araujo, 2015. "Countercyclical capital buffers: credit-to-GDP ratio versus credit growth," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 385-390, March.
    5. Aliaga Lordemann, Javier & Villegas Quino, Horacio & Rubín de Celis, Raúl, 2011. "Ciclos Económicos e Inversión en Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 2/2011, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    6. Ballestar, María Teresa & Díaz-Chao, Ángel & Sainz, Jorge & Torrent-Sellens, Joan, 2021. "Impact of robotics on manufacturing: A longitudinal machine learning perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    7. Carlo Ciccarelli & Stefano Fenoaltea & Tommaso Proietti, 2008. "The Effects of Unification: Markets, Policy and Cyclical Convergence in Italy, 1861-1913," CEIS Research Paper 133, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 18 Nov 2008.
    8. Xu, Jia & Tan, Xiujie & He, Gang & Liu, Yu, 2019. "Disentangling the drivers of carbon prices in China's ETS pilots — An EEMD approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1-9.
    9. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2016. "Improving the reliability of real-time output gap estimates using survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 358-373.
    10. Aliaga Lordemann, Javier & Rubin de Celis, Raúl & Villegas Quino, Horacio, 2011. "No Linealidad de los Ciclos Económicos en Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 7/2011, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    11. Víctor M. Guerrero & Adriana Galicia‐Vázquez, 2010. "Trend estimation of financial time series," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(3), pages 205-223, May.
    12. Ringwald, Leopold & Zörner, Thomas O., 2023. "The money-inflation nexus revisited," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 293-333.
    13. Carl Chiarella & Hing Hung & Thuy-Duong To, 2005. "The Volatility Structure of the Fixed Income Market under the HJM Framework: A Nonlinear Filtering Approach," Research Paper Series 151, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    14. Moghtaderi, Azadeh & Flandrin, Patrick & Borgnat, Pierre, 2013. "Trend filtering via empirical mode decompositions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 114-126.
    15. Mikko Myrskylä, 2010. "The effects of shocks in early life mortality on later life expectancy and mortality compression: A cohort analysis," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(12), pages 289-320.
    16. Hiroshi Yamada & Lan Jin, 2013. "Japan’s output gap estimation and ℓ 1 trend filtering," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 81-88, August.
    17. Fritz, Marlon, 2019. "Steady state adjusting trends using a data-driven local polynomial regression," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 312-325.
    18. Victor M. Guerrero, 2008. "Estimating Trends with Percentage of Smoothness Chosen by the User," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 76(2), pages 187-202, August.
    19. Ballestar, María Teresa & García-Lazaro, Aida & Sainz, Jorge & Sanz, Ismael, 2022. "Why is your company not robotic? The technology and human capital needed by firms to become robotic," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 328-343.
    20. Terence C. Mills, 2013. "Trends, cycles and structural breaks," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 3, pages 45-60, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    21. Kathavate, Jay, 2013. "Direct & Indirect Effects of Aid Volatility on Growth: Do Stronger Institutions Play a Role?," MPRA Paper 45187, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Borja Jalón & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & José A. Herce, 2017. "Countercyclical Labor Productivity: The Spanish Anomaly," IREA Working Papers 201712, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jun 2017.
    23. Jaqueson K. Galimberti & Marcelo L. Moura, 2011. "Improving the reliability of real-time Hodrick-Prescott filtering using survey forecasts," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 159, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    24. Riccardo De Bonis & Andrea Silvestrini, 2014. "The Italian financial cycle: 1861-2011," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 8(3), pages 301-334, September.
    25. Tapia, Jose, 2016. "Oil prices and the world business cycle: A causal investigation," MPRA Paper 68978, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  3. Agustín Maravall, 2005. "An application of the Tramo Seats automatic procedure; direct versus indirect adjustment," Working Papers 0524, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. V. Ball & Carlos San-Juan-Mesonada & Camilo Ulloa, 2014. "State productivity growth in agriculture: catching-up and the business cycle," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 327-338, December.
    2. Medel, Carlos A., 2014. "A Comparison Between Direct and Indirect Seasonal Adjustment of the Chilean GDP 1986-2009 with X-12-ARIMA," MPRA Paper 57053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bujosa, Marcos & Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Young, Peter C., 2007. "Linear dynamic harmonic regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 999-1024, October.
    4. Hayat, Aziz & Bhatti, M. Ishaq, 2013. "Masking of volatility by seasonal adjustment methods," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 676-688.
    5. Maravall, A. & del Rio, A., 2007. "Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 975-998, October.
    6. Ball, V. Eldon & Ulloa, Camilo A., 2011. "Agricultural productivity in the United States: catching-up and the business cycle," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1116, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    7. Lisa Sella & Gianna Vivaldo & Andreas Groth & Michael Ghil, 2016. "Economic Cycles and Their Synchronization: A Comparison of Cyclic Modes in Three European Countries," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 25-48, September.
    8. Aguilera, Ana M. & Escabias, Manuel & Valderrama, Mariano J., 2008. "Forecasting binary longitudinal data by a functional PC-ARIMA model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3187-3197, February.
    9. Enrique M. Quilis, 2018. "Temporal disaggregation of economic time series: The view from the trenches," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 72(4), pages 447-470, November.
    10. Keith R. Phillips & Jack Wang, 2016. "Residual seasonality in U.S. GDP data," Working Papers 1608, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    11. Thornton, Michael A., 2013. "Removing seasonality under a changing regime: Filtering new car sales," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 4-14.
    12. Fornaro, Paolo & Luomaranta, Henri, 2015. "Small Versus Large Firms Employment Patterns in Finland: a Comparison," MPRA Paper 66979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Tucker McElroy, 2018. "Seasonal adjustment subject to accounting constraints," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 72(4), pages 574-589, November.
    14. Daniel Thorburn & Can Tongur, 2014. "Assessing direct and indirect seasonal decomposition in state space," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(9), pages 2075-2091, September.
    15. Alain Hecq & Sean Telg & Lenard Lieb, 2017. "Do Seasonal Adjustments Induce Noncausal Dynamics in Inflation Rates?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-22, October.
    16. Michał Gradzewicz, 2019. "How do savings of different sectors respond to interest rate change?," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, March.
    17. Carmen Maria Angyal, 2012. "The Study of Correlation between Stock Market Dynamics and Real Economy," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(31), pages 14-22, May.

  4. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2004. "Combining filter design with model based filtering (with an application to business cycle estimation)," Working Papers 0417, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Tommaso Proietti & Alberto Musso, 2012. "Growth accounting for the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 219-244, August.
    2. Kamilya Tazhibayeva & Mr. Aasim M. Husain & Anna Ter-Martirosyan, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 2008/253, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
    4. Tommaso Proietti, 2009. "On the Model-Based Interpretation of Filters and the Reliability of Trend-Cycle Estimates," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1-3), pages 186-208.
    5. Maravall, A. & del Rio, A., 2007. "Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 975-998, October.
    6. Proietti, Tommaso, 2007. "Signal extraction and filtering by linear semiparametric methods," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 935-958, October.
    7. Acevedo Rueda, Rafael Alexis & Mora Mora, José U. & Harmath Fernández, Pedro Alexander, 2012. "La brecha del producto y el producto potencial en Venezuela: una estimación SVAR [Output Gap and Potential GDP in Venezuela: A SVAR Estimation]," MPRA Paper 58691, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
    8. Guy Mélard, 2016. "On some remarks about SEATS signal extraction," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 53-98, March.
    9. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
    10. Agustín Maravall Herrero & Domingo Pérez Cañete, 2011. "Applying and interpreting model-based seasonal adjustment. The euro-area industrial production series," Working Papers 1116, Banco de España.
    11. Julio Roman, Juan Manuel, 2011. "The Hodrick-Prescott filter with priors: linear restrictions on HP filters," MPRA Paper 34202, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Peña, Daniel, 2020. "Agustín Maravall: An interview with the International Journal of Forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1241-1251.
    13. Tommaso Proietti, 2012. "Seasonality, Forecast Extensions And Business Cycle Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 555-569, September.
    14. Tommaso Proietti, 2009. "Structural Time Series Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Terence C. Mills & Kerry Patterson (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, chapter 9, pages 385-433, Palgrave Macmillan.
    15. McElroy Tucker S. & Maravall Agustin, 2014. "Optimal Signal Extraction with Correlated Components," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 237-273, July.
    16. Juan Manuel Julio, 2011. "Data Revisions and the Output Gap," Borradores de Economia 642, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    17. Victor M. Guerrero, 2008. "Estimating Trends with Percentage of Smoothness Chosen by the User," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 76(2), pages 187-202, August.
    18. Terence C. Mills, 2013. "Trends, cycles and structural breaks," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 3, pages 45-60, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Dias, Maria Helena Ambrosio & Dias, Joilson, 2010. "Measuring the Cyclical Component of a Time Series: a New Proposed Methodology," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 30(1), October.
    20. Terence C. Mills, 2013. "Constructing U.K. Core Inflation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-21, April.
    21. Musso, Alberto & Proietti, Tommaso, 2007. "Growth accounting for the euro area: a structural approach," Working Paper Series 804, European Central Bank.

  5. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2002. "A Complete Model-Based Interpretation of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter: Spuriousness Reconsidered," Working Papers 0208, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2008. "The Intranational Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d07-234, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2009. "The UK Intranational Trade Cycle," Discussion Paper Series 234, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    3. Jonathan Olusegun Famoroti & Omolade Adeleke, 2023. "Analysis of Wamz’s Economic Growth and Monetary Policy Using the Markov Switching Approach," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(4), pages 142-156, April.
    4. Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Limited information estimation and evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 55-70.
    5. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2010. "The Intranational Business Cycle in Japan," Discussion Paper Series DP2010-19, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    6. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2010. "The UK intranational business cycle," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 71-93.
    7. Martin Fukac & Adrian R. Pagan, 2010. "Structural macro-econometric modelling in a policy environment," Research Working Paper RWP 10-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    8. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2008. "Globalization and Business Cycle Transmission," Discussion Paper Series 232, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    9. Michael J. Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2012. "Business Cycle, Currency And Trade, Revisited," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 160-180, February.
    10. Dias, Maria Helena Ambrosio & Dias, Joilson, 2010. "Measuring the Cyclical Component of a Time Series: a New Proposed Methodology," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 30(1), October.

  6. Agustín Maravall, 2002. "An Application of TRAMO-SEATS: Automatic Procedure and Sectoral Aggregation," Working Papers 0207, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Medel, Carlos A., 2014. "A Comparison Between Direct and Indirect Seasonal Adjustment of the Chilean GDP 1986-2009 with X-12-ARIMA," MPRA Paper 57053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Colm McCarthy & John Lawlor, 2005. "Alternative seasonal adjustment methods for aggregate Irish macroeconomic data," Open Access publications 10197/566, School of Economics, University College Dublin.

  7. Gianluca Caporello & Agustín Maravall & Fernando J. Sánchez, 2001. "Program TSW Reference Manual," Working Papers 0112, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Eliana González & . Luis F. Melo & Viviana Monroy & Brayan Rojas, 2009. "A Dynamic Factor Model for the Colombian Inflation," Borradores de Economia 549, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Eliana González, 2010. "Bayesian Model Averaging. An Application to Forecast Inflation in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 7015, Banco de la Republica.
    3. Huang, Tai-Hsin & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2002. "Seasonal cointegration and cross-equation restrictions on a forward-looking buffer stock model of money demand," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 11-46, November.
    4. Ginters Buss, 2012. "Forecasting and Signal Extraction with Regularised Multivariate Direct Filter Approach," Working Papers 2012/06, Latvijas Banka.
    5. Webel, Karsten, 2016. "A data-driven selection of an appropriate seasonal adjustment approach," Discussion Papers 07/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Eliana González, 2011. "Forecasting With Many Predictors. An Empirical Comparison," Borradores de Economia 7996, Banco de la Republica.
    7. Ginters Buss, 2012. "A New Real-Time Indicator for the Euro Area GDP," Working Papers 2012/02, Latvijas Banka.

  8. Agustín Maravall & Ana del Río, 2001. "Time Aggregation and the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," Working Papers 0108, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Ricardo Mora & Georges Siotis, 2000. "External Factors in Emerging Market Recoveries: An Empirical Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1415, Econometric Society.
    2. Joel Cariolle & Michaël Goujon, 2015. "Measuring macroeconomic instability: a critical survey illustrated with exports series," Post-Print halshs-01273229, HAL.
    3. Andrés, Javier & Fatás, Antonio & Domenech, Rafael, 2004. "The Stabilizing Role of Government Size," CEPR Discussion Papers 4384, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2011. "Productivity in the Spanish regions during the recent economic cycles," ERSA conference papers ersa11p57, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Joël Cariolle & Petros G Sekeris, 2021. "How export shocks corrupt: theory and evidence," Working Papers hal-03164648, HAL.
    6. Dai, Yuwen, 2014. "Business Cycle Synchronization in Asia: The Role of Financial and Trade Linkages," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 139, Asian Development Bank.
    7. Brauer, Jurgen & Gomez-Sorzano, Alejandro & Sethuraman, Sankar, 2004. "Decomposing violence: political murder in Colombia, 1946-1999," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 447-461, June.
    8. Espino, Freddy, 2013. "Hechos Estilizados del Sistema Bancario Peruano," Working Papers 2013-005, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    9. Paulo Soares Esteves, 2004. "Quarterly Series for the Portuguese Economy: 1977-2003," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    10. Antonio Portugal Duarte & Nuno Baetas da Silva, 2022. "Exchange Rate Synchronization for a Set of Currencies from Different Monetary Areas," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 69(2), pages 163-189, June.
    11. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2002. "A Complete Model-Based Interpretation of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter: Spuriousness Reconsidered," Working Papers 0208, Banco de España.
    12. Aliaga Lordemann, Javier & Villegas Quino, Horacio & Rubín de Celis, Raúl, 2011. "Ciclos Económicos e Inversión en Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 2/2011, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    13. Nuno Lourenço & António Rua, 2023. "Business cycle clocks: Time to get circular," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1513-1541, October.
    14. Alberto ZANARDI & Giampaolo ARACHI & Caterina FERRARIO, 2010. "Regional Redistribution and Risk Sharing in Italy: The Role of Different Tiers of Government," Regional and Urban Modeling 284100049, EcoMod.
    15. Roberto Iannaccone & Edoardo Otranto, 2003. "Signal Extraction in Continuous Time and the Generalized Hodrick- Prescott Filter," Econometrics 0311002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Maravall, A. & del Rio, A., 2007. "Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 975-998, October.
    17. David Aadland, 2002. "Detrending Time-Aggregated Data," Working Papers 2002-05, Utah State University, Department of Economics.
    18. Michael Tomz & Mark L. J. Wright, 2007. "Do Countries Default In "Bad Times"?," CAMA Working Papers 2007-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. Hussain, M. Haider & Ahmed, Qazi Masood, 2006. "Estimating the Black Economy through Monetary Approach: A Case Study of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 8153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Marcell Göttert & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2021. "Survey-Based Structural Budget Balances," EconPol Working Paper 59, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    21. Dedák, István & Dombi, Ákos, 2009. "Konvergencia és növekedési ütem [Convergence and growth rate]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 19-45.
    22. Nikopour, Hesam, 2005. "Business cycles and policy making in social insurance systems the case of Iran (1962-2004)," MPRA Paper 13060, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Jan 2009.
    23. Piotr Bańbuła & Marcin Pietrzak, 2021. "Early Warning Models of Banking Crises: VIX and High Profits," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(4), pages 381-403, December.
    24. Michal Rubaszek & Pawel Skrzypczynski & Grzegorz Koloch, 2011. "Forecasting the Polish zloty with non-linear models," NBP Working Papers 81, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    25. Martín Román, Ángel L. & Cuéllar-Martín, Jaime & Moral de Blas, Alfonso, 2018. "Labor supply and the business cycle: The “Bandwagon Worker Effect”," GLO Discussion Paper Series 274, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    26. Aliaga Lordemann, Javier & Rubin de Celis, Raúl & Villegas Quino, Horacio, 2011. "No Linealidad de los Ciclos Económicos en Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 7/2011, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    27. Rafael Doménech & Víctor Gómez, 2005. "Ciclo económico y desempleo estructural en la economía española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 29(2), pages 259-288, May.
    28. Tucker S. McElroy & Thomas M. Trimbur, 2007. "Continuous time extraction of a nonstationary signal with illustrations in continuous low-pass and band-pass filtering," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-68, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    29. Ginters Buss, 2012. "Forecasting and Signal Extraction with Regularised Multivariate Direct Filter Approach," Working Papers 2012/06, Latvijas Banka.
    30. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2021. "Potential Output: A Market Conditionalities Interpretation," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-38, December.
    31. Miguel Artiach, 2011. "Second-order moments of frequency asymmetric cycles," Working Papers. Serie AD 2011-27, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    32. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2004. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 16, Society for Computational Economics.
    33. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2004. "Combining filter design with model based filtering (with an application to business cycle estimation)," Working Papers 0417, Banco de España.
    34. Edinaldo Tebaldi, 2016. "The Dynamics of Total Factor Productivity and Institutions," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 1-25, December.
    35. Villegas, Horacio & Rubín de Celis, Raúl & Aliaga, Javier, 2011. "Hodrick–Prescott, Goodwin y ciclos económicos en Bolivia," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 16, pages 29-38, Noviembre.
    36. Enrique Alberola & José M. Montero, 2006. "Debt sustainability and procyclical fical policies in Latin America," Working Papers 0611, Banco de España.
    37. Joël CARIOLLE, 2012. "Measuring macroeconomic volatility - Applications to export revenue data, 1970-2005," Working Papers I14, FERDI.
    38. Catelén, Ana Laura, 2020. "Growth constraints and external vulnerability in Argentina," Nülan. Deposited Documents 3471, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales, Centro de Documentación.
    39. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Republic of Estonia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/337, International Monetary Fund.
    40. Michael J. Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2012. "Business Cycle, Currency And Trade, Revisited," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 160-180, February.
    41. Ginters Buss, 2012. "A New Real-Time Indicator for the Euro Area GDP," Working Papers 2012/02, Latvijas Banka.
    42. Łukasz Lenart & Mateusz Pipień, 2015. "Empirical Properties of the Credit and Equity Cycle within Almost Periodically Correlated Stochastic Processes - the Case of Poland, UK and USA," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 7(3), pages 169-186, September.
    43. Wang, Hao & Xu, Ning & Yin, Haiyan & Ji, Hao, 2022. "The dynamic impact of monetary policy on financial stability in China after crises," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    44. Bloechl, Andreas, 2014. "Reducing the Excess Variability of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter by Flexible Penalization," Discussion Papers in Economics 17940, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    45. Artiach, Miguel, 2012. "Leverage, skewness and amplitude asymmetric cycles," MPRA Paper 41267, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    46. Eddie Casey, 2019. "Inside the "Upside Down": Estimating Ireland's Output Gap," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 5-34.
    47. Joël CARIOLLE, 2012. "Mesurer l’instabilité macroéconomique - Applications aux données de recettes d’exportation, 1970-2005," Working Papers I14, FERDI.
    48. Kathavate, Jay & Mallik, Girijasankar, 2012. "The impact of the Interaction between institutional quality and aid volatility on growth: theory and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 716-724.

  9. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2000. "Notes on Time Series Analysis, ARIMA Models and Signal Extraction," Working Papers 0012, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Aslihan Atabek & Oguz Atuk & Evren Erdogan Cosar & Cagri Sarikaya, 2009. "Mevsimsel Modellerde Calisma Gunu Degiskeni," CBT Research Notes in Economics 0903, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2016. "Seasonal adjustment of Indian macroeconomic time-series," Working Papers 16/160, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    3. Gianluca Caporello & Agustín Maravall & Fernando J. Sánchez, 2001. "Program TSW Reference Manual," Working Papers 0112, Banco de España.
    4. Oguz Atuk & Beyza Pinar Ural, 2002. "Seasonal Adjustment Methods : An Application to the Turkish Monetary Aggregates," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 2(1), pages 21-37.
    5. Buss, Ginters, 2010. "Seasonal decomposition with a modified Hodrick-Prescott filter," MPRA Paper 24133, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mr. Alfredo Baldini, 2005. "Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles in an Oil-Producing Economy: The Case of Venezuela," IMF Working Papers 2005/237, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Andreja Pufnik & Davor Kunovac, 2006. "Short-Term Forecasting of Inflation in Croatia with Seasonal ARIMA Processes," Working Papers 16, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.

  10. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2000. "An Application of TRAMO-SEATS: Changes in Seasonality and Current Trend-Cycle Assessment: the German Retail Trade Turnover Series," Working Papers 0011, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Martelotte Marcela Cohen & Souza Reinaldo Castro & Silva Eduardo Antônio Barros da, 2017. "Design of Seasonal Adjustment Filter Robust to Variations in the Seasonal Behaviour of Time Series," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 33(1), pages 155-186, March.
    2. Luciana Crosilla, 2006. "The seasonality of ISAE business and consumer surveys: methodological aspects and empirical evidence," ISAE Working Papers 68, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).

  11. Agustín Maravall & Fernando J. Sánchez, 2000. "An Application of TRAMO-SEATS: Model Selection and Out-of-Sample Performance: the Swiss CPI Series," Working Papers 0014, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Aslihan Atabek & Oguz Atuk & Evren Erdogan Cosar & Cagri Sarikaya, 2009. "Mevsimsel Modellerde Calisma Gunu Degiskeni," CBT Research Notes in Economics 0903, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Oguz Atuk & Beyza Pinar Ural, 2002. "Seasonal Adjustment Methods : An Application to the Turkish Monetary Aggregates," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 2(1), pages 21-37.
    3. Michal Tvrdoň, 2015. "Decomposition of Unemployment: The Case of the Visegrad group countries," Working Papers 0005, Silesian University, School of Business Administration.
    4. Meltem Gulenay Ongan, 2002. "The Seasonal Adjustment of the Consumer and Wholesale Prices : a Comparison of Census X-11, X-12 Arima and Tramo/Seats," Working Papers 0205, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

  12. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 1999. "Seasonal Outliers in Time Series," Working Papers 9915, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2000. "An Application of TRAMO-SEATS: Changes in Seasonality and Current Trend-Cycle Assessment: the German Retail Trade Turnover Series," Working Papers 0011, Banco de España.
    2. Luciana Crosilla, 2006. "The seasonality of ISAE business and consumer surveys: methodological aspects and empirical evidence," ISAE Working Papers 68, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    3. Maravall, Agustín, 2000. "An application of tramo-seats: changes in seasonality and current trend-cycle assesment: the german retail trade turnover series," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10010, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    4. Hella, Heikki, 2003. "On robust ESACF identification of mixed ARIMA models," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2003_027, July.

  13. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 1999. "Short-Term and Long-Term Trends, Seasonal Adjustment, and the Business Cycles," Working Papers 9918, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Pacheco Jiménez, J.F., 2001. "Business cycles in small open economies: the case of Costa Rica," ISS Working Papers - General Series 19075, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    2. Christian M. Dahl & Henrik Hansen & John Smidt, 2008. "The cyclical component factor model," CREATES Research Papers 2008-44, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Ángel Estrada & Ignacio Hernando & J. David López-Salido, 2000. "Measuring the NAIRU in the Spanish Economy," Working Papers 0009, Banco de España.

  14. Agustín Maravall, 1999. "An Application of TRAMO and SEATS: Report for the "Seasonal Adjustment Research Appraisal" Project," Working Papers 9914, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Meltem Gulenay Ongan, 2002. "The Seasonal Adjustment of the Consumer and Wholesale Prices : a Comparison of Census X-11, X-12 Arima and Tramo/Seats," Working Papers 0205, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

  15. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 1999. "Estimation of the Business Cycle: a Modified Hodrick-Prescott Filter," Working Papers 9912, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Medel, Carlos A., 2017. "Forecasting Chilean Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Globalisation, Combination, and Accuracy," MPRA Paper 78439, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Nikolaos Giannellis & Athanasios Papadopoulos, 2007. "Estimating the Equilibrium Effective Exchange Rate for Potential EMU Members," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 307-326, July.
    3. Jed Armstrong, 2015. "The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s output gap indicator suite and its real-time properties," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2015/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    4. Detken, Carsten & Smets, Frank, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 364, European Central Bank.
    5. Vincent Bouvatier & Sofiane El Ouardi, 2021. "Credit gaps as banking crisis predictors: a different tune for middle- and low-income countries," Erudite Working Paper 2021-15, Erudite.
    6. Nikolaos Giannellis & Athanasios Papadopoulos, 2006. "Testing for Efficiency in Selected Developing Foreign Exchange Markets: An Equilibrium-Based Approach," Working Papers 0717, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    7. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2002. "A Complete Model-Based Interpretation of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter: Spuriousness Reconsidered," Working Papers 0208, Banco de España.
    8. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2000. "An Application of TRAMO-SEATS: Changes in Seasonality and Current Trend-Cycle Assessment: the German Retail Trade Turnover Series," Working Papers 0011, Banco de España.
    9. Winkelried, Diego, 2015. "Piecewise linear trends and cycles in primary commodity prices," Working Papers 2015-012, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    10. Vincent Bouvatier & Anne-Laure Delatte & Pierre-Nicolas Rehault, 2022. "Measuring credit procyclicality: A new database," Post-Print hal-04286376, HAL.
    11. Hofman, André A. & Tapia, Heriberto, 2003. "Potential output in Latin America: a standard approach for the 1950-2002 period," Estudios Estadísticos 4721, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    12. Michael Callaghan & Jamie Culling & Finn Robinson, 2018. "Ageing is a drag: Projecting labour force participation in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2018/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    13. Neslihan Sakarya & Robert M. de Jong, 2022. "The spectral analysis of the Hodrick–Prescott filter," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 479-489, May.
    14. Lyubomir Ivanov, 2005. "Is "The ideal filter" really Ideal: The usage of Frequency Filtering and Spurious Cycles," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 3(1), pages 79-96.
    15. Jagric Timotej, 2003. "A Nonlinear Approach to Forecasting with Leading Economic Indicators," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 1-20, July.
    16. Acevedo Rueda, Rafael Alexis & Mora Mora, José U. & Harmath Fernández, Pedro Alexander, 2012. "La brecha del producto y el producto potencial en Venezuela: una estimación SVAR [Output Gap and Potential GDP in Venezuela: A SVAR Estimation]," MPRA Paper 58691, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
    17. Gunter Löffler, 2013. "Can rating agencies look through the cycle?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(4), pages 623-646, May.
    18. Giang Huong Nguyen, 2014. "Estimating the Output Gap to Support the Management of Interest Rates in Vietnam," IHEID Working Papers 05-2014, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    19. Polasek, Wolfgang, 2011. "The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) Filter as a Bayesian Regression Model," Economics Series 277, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    20. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2012. "The Importance of a Good Indicator for Global Excess Demand," GEMF Working Papers 2012-15, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    21. Harri Kemp, 2014. "Measuring potential output for the South African economy: Embedding information about the financial cycle," Working Papers 03/2014, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    22. Carlos Medel, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics and the Hybrid Neo Keynesian Phillips Curve: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 769, Central Bank of Chile.
    23. Medel, Carlos A., 2015. "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," MPRA Paper 67081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Zbigniew Kuchta & Katarzyna Piłat, 2010. "Zastosowanie modelu realnego cyklu koniunkturalnego Hansena do gospodarki Polski," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 11-12, pages 19-39.
    25. Adam Geršl & Thomas Mitterling, 2021. "Forecast-Augmented Credit-to-GDP Gap as an Early Warning Indicator of Banking Crises," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 71(4), pages 323-351, December.
    26. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2016. "Improving the reliability of real-time output gap estimates using survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 358-373.
    27. Diego Winkelried, 2014. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting in Peru," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1181-1196, June.
    28. Lechman, Ewa & Dominiak, Piotr, 2016. "Entrepreneurship vulnerability to business cycle. A new methodology for identification pro-cyclical and counter-cyclical patterns of entrepreneurial activity," MPRA Paper 68793, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Tadeusz Kufel, 2021. "Covid-19 Pandemic Lockdown vs. Business Cycle Clock Registration of New Passenger Cars in European Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 875-890.
    30. Rafael Doménech & Víctor Gómez, 2005. "Ciclo económico y desempleo estructural en la economía española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 29(2), pages 259-288, May.
    31. Artis, Michael, 2002. "Dating the Business Cycle in Britain," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 182, pages 90-95, October.
    32. Jorg Scheibe, 2003. "The Chinese Output Gap During the Reform Period 1978-2002," Economics Series Working Papers 179, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    33. Jimborean, Ramona, 2013. "The exchange rate pass-through in the new EU member states," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 302-329.
    34. Mr. Angel J. Ubide & Mr. Kevin Ross, 2001. "Mind the Gap: What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?," IMF Working Papers 2001/203, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Vincent Bouvatier & Antonia Lopez Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2012. "Does the banking sector structure matter for credit procyclicality," Post-Print hal-01385821, HAL.
    36. Calza, Alessandro, 2008. "Globalisation, domestic inflation and global output gaps: Evidence from the euro area," Working Paper Series 890, European Central Bank.
    37. Anusha, "undated". "Evaluating reliability of some symmetric and asymmetric univariate filters," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2015-030, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    38. Julio Roman, Juan Manuel, 2011. "The Hodrick-Prescott filter with priors: linear restrictions on HP filters," MPRA Paper 34202, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    39. Hall, Viv B & Thomson, Peter, 2022. "A boosted HP filter for business cycle analysis: evidence from New Zealand’s small open economy," Working Paper Series 21184, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    40. Kristian Jönsson, 2020. "Cyclical Dynamics and Trend/Cycle Definitions: Comparing the HP and Hamilton Filters," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 16(2), pages 151-162, November.
    41. Enrique Alberola & José M. Montero, 2006. "Debt sustainability and procyclical fical policies in Latin America," Working Papers 0611, Banco de España.
    42. Quast, Josefine & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Reliable Real-time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203535, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    43. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2023. "Credit-to-GDP Gap Estimates in Real Time: A Stable Indicator for Macroprudential Policy Making in Croatia," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(3), pages 582-614, September.
    44. Virmani, Vineet, 2004. "Estimating Output Gap for the Indian Economy: Comparing Results from Unobserved-Components Models and the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," IIMA Working Papers WP2004-04-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    45. Daragh Clancy, 2013. "Output Gap Estimation Uncertainty: Extracting the TFP Cycle Using an Aggregated PMI Series," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(1), pages 1-18.
    46. Hall, Viv B & Thomson, Peter, 2020. "Does Hamilton’s OLS regression provide a “better alternative” to the Hodrick-Prescott filter? A New Zealand Business Cycle Perspective," Working Paper Series 21070, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    47. International Monetary Fund, 2002. "Lithuania: History and Future of the Currency Board Arrangement," IMF Working Papers 2002/127, International Monetary Fund.
    48. Juan Bógalo & Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2021. "Circulant Singular Spectrum Analysis to Monitor the State of the Economy in Real Time," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-17, May.
    49. Faith Christian Cacnio, 2013. "Analysing inflation dynamics in the Philippines using the new Keynesian Phililips curve," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 50(2), pages 53-82, December.
    50. Randal J. Verbrugge & Saeed Zaman, 2023. "Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics: Higher for Longer," Working Papers 23-06R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 20 Jun 2023.
    51. Juan Manuel Julio, 2011. "Data Revisions and the Output Gap," Borradores de Economia 642, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    52. Pedro Duarte Neves, 2001. "The Use of Cyclically Adjusted Balances at Banco de Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    53. João Valle e Azevedo, 2007. "A Multivariate Band-Pass Filter," Working Papers w200717, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    54. Deicy J. Cristiano-Botia & Manuel Dario Hernandez-Bejarano & Mario A. Ramos-Veloza, 2021. "Labor Market Indicator for Colombia (LMI)," Borradores de Economia 1152, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    55. Winkelried, Diego, 2013. "Modelo de Proyección Trimestral del BCRP: Actualización y novedades," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 9-60.
    56. Miroslav Plašil, 2011. "Potenciální produkt, mezera výstupu a míra nejistoty spojená s jejich určením při použití Hodrick-Prescottova filtru [Potential Product, Output Gap and Uncertainty Rate Associated with Their Determ," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(4), pages 490-507.
    57. Nikolaos Giannellis & Minoas Koukouritakis, 2011. "Behavioural equilibrium exchange rate and total misalignment: evidence from the euro exchange rate," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(4), pages 555-578, November.
    58. Valle e Azevedo, João, 2007. "Interpretation of the Effects of Filtering Integrated Time Series," MPRA Paper 6574, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    59. Irina V. Danilova & Valentina S. Antonyuk & Olga A. Bogdanova, 2023. "Shock robustness of single-industry regions: Assessment and governance," Upravlenets, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 14(6), pages 33-49, December.
    60. Jaqueson K. Galimberti & Marcelo L. Moura, 2011. "Improving the reliability of real-time Hodrick-Prescott filtering using survey forecasts," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 159, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    61. John Marangos & Vasiliki Fourmouzi & Minoas Koukouritakis, 2013. "Factors that Determine the Decline in University Student Enrolments in Economics in Australia: An Empirical Investigation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(285), pages 255-270, June.
    62. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Ibourk, Aomar, 2005. "Le Cycle des affaires dans les pays MENA Une Application du Filtre Hodrick-Prescott [The Business Cycle in MENA Application of a Hodrick-Prescott Filter]," MPRA Paper 46115, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    63. Maravall, Agustín, 2000. "An application of tramo-seats: changes in seasonality and current trend-cycle assesment: the german retail trade turnover series," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10010, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    64. Frederico Belo, 2001. "Some Facts About the Cyclical Convergence in the Euro Zone," Working Papers w200107, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    65. Tóth, Máté, 2021. "A multivariate unobserved components model to estimate potential output in the euro area: a production function based approach," Working Paper Series 2523, European Central Bank.
    66. Alessandro Calza, 2008. "Globalisation, domestic inflation and the global output gaps: evidence from the Euro era," Globalization Institute Working Papers 13, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    67. Mohamed Elshazli A. Zidan & Anouar Ben Mabrouk & Nidhal Ben Abdallah & Tawfeeq M. Alanazi, 2024. "Multifractal wavelet dynamic mode decomposition modeling for marketing time series," Papers 2403.13361, arXiv.org.
    68. Codruţa Mare & Cristian Litan, 2012. "Perspectives on Euro introduction in the Romanian economy," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 23-40, July.
    69. Eduardo Loría & Emmanuel Salas, 2014. "Ciclos, crecimiento económico y crisis en México, 1980.1-2013.4," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 29(2), pages 131-161.

  16. Victor Gómez & Agustin Maravall & Daniel Peña, 1999. "Missing observations in ARIMA models: Skipping strategy versus outlier approach," Working Papers 9701, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. José Casals & Sonia Sotoca & Miguel Jerez, 2012. "Minimally Conditioned Likelihood for a Nonstationary State Space Model," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2012-04, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    2. Carnero Fernández, María Ángeles & Pérez, Ana, 2014. "Identification of asymmetric conditional heteroscedasticity in the presence of outliers," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws141912, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    3. Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & Visschers, Ludo, 2020. "Unemployment and Endogenous Reallocation over the Business Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 13307, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Yusuf Mercan & Benjamin Schoefer & Petr SedlÃ¡Ä ek, 2020. "A Congestion Theory of Unemployment Fluctuations," Economics Series Working Papers 927, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Carlo Mari & Emiliano Mari, 2021. "Gaussian clustering and jump-diffusion models of electricity prices: a deep learning analysis," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 1039-1062, December.
    6. Yılmaz, Engin, 2015. "Forecasting tourist arrivals to Turkey," MPRA Paper 68616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Alanya-Beltran, Willy, 2022. "Unit roots in lower-bounded series with outliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    8. Luis Eduardo Arango & Andrés González & John Jairo León & Luis Fernando Melo., 2008. "Cambios de la Tasa de Política y su Efecto en la Estructura a Plazo de Colombia," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 45(132), pages 257-291.
    9. Juan Pedro Muñoz Miguel & Ana Elizabeth García Sipols & Clara Simón de Blas & Francisca Anguita Rodríguez, 2021. "A Model to Evaluate the Effect of Urban Road Pricing on Traffic Speed and Congestion in Madrid City Center and Its Surrounding," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-23, July.
    10. Arash Jamalmanesh & Mahdi Khodaparast Mashhadi & Ahmad Seifi & Mohammad Ali Falahi, 2018. "Prediction of Hydropower Energy Price Using G mes-Maravall Seasonal Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(2), pages 81-88.
    11. Che-Yu Hung & Chien-Chih Wang & Shi-Woei Lin & Bernard C. Jiang, 2022. "An Empirical Comparison of the Sales Forecasting Performance for Plastic Tray Manufacturing Using Missing Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-21, February.

  17. Víctor Gómez & Agustín Maravall, 1998. "Seasonal Adjustment and Signal Extraction in Economic Time Series," Working Papers 9809, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Javier J. Pérez & Jesús Rodríguez López & Carlos Usabiaga, 2002. "Análisis Dinámico de la Relación entre Ciclo Económico y Ciclo del Desempleo en Andalucía en Comparación con el Resto de España," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/07, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    2. Aslihan Atabek & Oguz Atuk & Evren Erdogan Cosar & Cagri Sarikaya, 2009. "Mevsimsel Modellerde Calisma Gunu Degiskeni," CBT Research Notes in Economics 0903, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    3. Roberto Iannaccone & Edoardo Otranto, 2003. "Signal Extraction in Continuous Time and the Generalized Hodrick- Prescott Filter," Econometrics 0311002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gianluca Caporello & Agustín Maravall & Fernando J. Sánchez, 2001. "Program TSW Reference Manual," Working Papers 0112, Banco de España.
    5. Oviedo Gómez, Andrés Felipe & Sierra, Lya Paola, 2019. "The importance of terms of trade in the Colombian economy," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    6. Carrera, Cesar & Ledesma, Alan, 2015. "Proyección de la inflación agregada con modelos de vectores autorregresivos bayesianos," Working Papers 2015-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    7. Mamadou-Diéne Diop & Jules Sadefo Kamdem, 2023. "Multiscale Agricultural Commodities Forecasting Using Wavelet-SARIMA Process," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 21(1), pages 1-40, March.
    8. Bušs, Ginters, 2009. "Comparing forecasts of Latvia's GDP using simple seasonal ARIMA models and direct versus indirect approach," MPRA Paper 16684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. F. OğunC & D. Ece, 2004. "Estimating the output gap for Turkey: an unobserved components approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 177-182.
    10. Marcus Scheiblecker, 2003. "Der Arbeitstagseffekt im vierteljährlichen Bruttoinlandsprodukt. Eine empirische Analyse anhand saisonaler Zeitreihenmodelle," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 76(11), pages 829-839, November.
    11. In Choi, 2023. "Does climate change affect economic data?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(6), pages 2939-2956, June.
    12. Maravall, Agustín, 1999. "Short-term and long-term trends, seasonal and the business cycle," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6291, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    13. Oguz Atuk & Beyza Pinar Ural, 2002. "Seasonal Adjustment Methods : An Application to the Turkish Monetary Aggregates," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 2(1), pages 21-37.
    14. Agustín Maravall Herrero & Domingo Pérez Cañete, 2011. "Applying and interpreting model-based seasonal adjustment. The euro-area industrial production series," Working Papers 1116, Banco de España.
    15. Cagri Sarikaya & Fethi Ogunc & Dilara Ece & Hakan Kara & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "Estimating Output Gap for the Turkish Economy," Working Papers 0503, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    16. Hakan Kara & Fethi Öğünç & ümit Özlale & Çağrı Sarıkaya, 2007. "Estimating the Output Gap in a Changing Economy," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(1), pages 269-289, July.
    17. Agustín Maravall & Fernando J. Sánchez, 2000. "An Application of TRAMO-SEATS: Model Selection and Out-of-Sample Performance: the Swiss CPI Series," Working Papers 0014, Banco de España.
    18. Marcus Scheiblecker, 2004. "The Working-Day Effect in the Austrian Economy," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 9(1), pages 14-23, February.
    19. Giusti, Antonio & Grassini, Laura & Viviani, Alessandro, 2013. "Information sources on tourism demand: a comparison," MPRA Paper 48572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Gerlach, Stefan & Assenmacher, Katrin, 2006. "Interpreting Euro Area Inflation at High and Low Frequencies," CEPR Discussion Papers 5632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Yuliya Lovcha & Alejandro Perez-Laborda & Luis Gil-Alana, 2018. "On the invertibility of seasonally adjusted series," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 443-465, March.
    22. Cesar Carrera & Alan Ledesma, 2015. "Aggregate Inflation Forecast with Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 50, Peruvian Economic Association.
    23. Oviedo Gómez, Andrés Felipe & Sierra, Lya Paola, 2019. "Importancia de los términos de intercambio en la economía colombiana," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    24. José Antonio Camuñez Ruiz & Germán Ramos Campos, 2024. "Analysis of temporal evolution of tourist visits to the region of Morón de la Frontera (Spain). Two possible explanatory variables of this evolution," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 34(2), pages 17-31.
    25. Michal Tvrdoň, 2015. "Decomposition of Unemployment: The Case of the Visegrad group countries," Working Papers 0005, Silesian University, School of Business Administration.
    26. Villarreal, Francisco G., 2014. "Monetary Policy and Inequality in Mexico," MPRA Paper 57074, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.
    28. Ece Oral & Dilara Ece & Turknur Hamsici, 2005. "Building Up a Real Sector Business Confidence Index for Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 5(1), pages 23-54.
    29. Stephen Pollock, 2001. "Improved Frequency-selective Filters," Working Papers 449, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    30. Luis J. Álvarez & María de los Llanos Matea, 1999. "Underlying Inflation Measures in Spain," Working Papers 9911, Banco de España.

  18. Víctor Gómez & Agustín Maravall, 1998. "Automatic Modeling Methods for Univariate Series," Working Papers 9808, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Alonso, A.M. & Berrendero, J.R. & Hernandez, A. & Justel, A., 2006. "Time series clustering based on forecast densities," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 762-776, November.
    2. Thiago Carlomagno Carlo & Emerson Fernandes Marçal, 2016. "Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(50), pages 4846-4860, October.
    3. Meyler, Aidan, 1999. "The non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) in a small open economy: The irish context," MPRA Paper 11363, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gianluca Caporello & Agustín Maravall & Fernando J. Sánchez, 2001. "Program TSW Reference Manual," Working Papers 0112, Banco de España.
    5. Daniel Grenouilleau, 2004. "A sorted leading indicators dynamic (SLID) factor model for short-run euro-area GDP forecasting," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 219, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    6. Syed Abul Basher & Stefano Fachin, 2013. "The long-run relationship between savings and investment in oil-exporting developing countries: a case study of the Gulf Arab states," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 37(4), pages 429-446, December.
    7. Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Quinn, Terry, 1998. "Forecasting Irish inflation using ARIMA models," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/98, Central Bank of Ireland.
    8. George Athanasopoulos & D. Poskitt & Farshid Vahid, 2012. "Two Canonical VARMA Forms: Scalar Component Models Vis-à-Vis the Echelon Form," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 60-83.
    9. Darne, O. & Levy-Rueff, O. & Pop, A., 2013. "Calibrating Initial Shocks in Bank Stress Test Scenarios: An Outlier Detection Based Approach," Working papers 426, Banque de France.
    10. Syed Abul Basher & Stefano Fachin, 2014. "Investigating long-run demand for broad money in the Gulf Arab countries," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 199-214, July.
    11. Bušs, Ginters, 2009. "Comparing forecasts of Latvia's GDP using simple seasonal ARIMA models and direct versus indirect approach," MPRA Paper 16684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Joan Paredes & Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez, 2009. "A quarterly fiscal database for the euro area based on intra-annual fiscal information," Working Papers 0935, Banco de España.
    13. Bhaghoe, Sailesh, 2018. "A Monthly Economic Activity Index System for Suriname," EconStor Preprints 226693, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    14. Trapero, Juan R. & Pedregal, Diego J., 2009. "Frequency domain methods applied to forecasting electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 727-735, September.
    15. Maravall, Agustin, 2006. "An application of the TRAMO-SEATS automatic procedure; direct versus indirect adjustment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2167-2190, May.
    16. Kimolo, Deogratius, 2009. "Modelling and Forecasting Inflation in Tanzania: A Univariate Time Series Analysis," MPRA Paper 114782, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Agustín Maravall & Fernando J. Sánchez, 2000. "An Application of TRAMO-SEATS: Model Selection and Out-of-Sample Performance: the Swiss CPI Series," Working Papers 0014, Banco de España.
    18. Wojciech Charemza & Carlos Díaz & Svetlana Makarova, 2015. "Choosing the Right Skew Normal Distribution: the Macroeconomist’ Dilemma," Discussion Papers in Economics 15/08, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    19. Ghassan, Hassan B. & Alhajhoj, Hassan R., 2012. "Long Run Relationship between IFDI and Domestic Investment in GCC Countries," MPRA Paper 62544, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2013.
    20. Cuevas Ángel & Quilis Enrique M. & Espasa Antoni, 2015. "Quarterly Regional GDP Flash Estimates by Means of Benchmarking and Chain Linking," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 31(4), pages 627-647, December.
    21. Ollech, Daniel, 2018. "Seasonal adjustment of daily time series," Discussion Papers 41/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    22. Giusti, Antonio & Grassini, Laura & Viviani, Alessandro, 2013. "Information sources on tourism demand: a comparison," MPRA Paper 48572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Wojciech Charemza & Carlos Diaz Vela & Svetlana Makarova, 2013. "Inflation fan charts, monetary policy and skew normal distribution," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/06, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    24. Stefania D'Amico & Athanasios Orphanides, 2008. "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Marcus Cobb, 2009. "Forecasting Chilean Inflation From Disaggregate Components," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 545, Central Bank of Chile.
    26. Friedrich Fritzer & Gabriel Moser & Johann Scharler, 2002. "Forecasting Austrian HICP and its Components using VAR and ARIMA Models," Working Papers 73, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    27. Maravall, Agustín, 1999. "Seasonal outliers in time series," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6333, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    28. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.

  19. Víctor Gómez & Agustín Maravall, 1998. "Guide for Using the Programs TRAMO and SEATS (Beta Version: December 1997)," Working Papers 9805, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Ivan Roberts & Graham White, 2015. "Seasonal Adjustment of Chinese Economic Statistics," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2015-13, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Themistocles Kokolakakis & Fernando Lera-Lopez, 2020. "Sport Promotion through Sport Mega-Events. An Analysis for Types of Olympic Sports in London 2012," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-17, August.
    3. Anton I. Votinov & Ivan P. Stankevich, 2017. "VAR Approach to Efficiency Evaluation of Fiscal Economy Encouragement Measures," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 6, pages 64-74, December.
    4. Fernández-Durán, J.J., 2014. "Modeling seasonal effects in the Bass Forecasting Diffusion Model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 251-264.
    5. Cuevas Ángel & Quilis Enrique M. & Espasa Antoni, 2015. "Quarterly Regional GDP Flash Estimates by Means of Benchmarking and Chain Linking," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 31(4), pages 627-647, December.
    6. Abdullah Alhassan, 2009. "A Coincident Indicator of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2009/073, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Maravall, Agustín, 2000. "An application of tramo-seats: changes in seasonality and current trend-cycle assesment: the german retail trade turnover series," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10010, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.

  20. Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Short-Term Analysis of Macroeconomic Time Series," Working Papers 9607, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Gianluca Caporello & Agustín Maravall & Fernando J. Sánchez, 2001. "Program TSW Reference Manual," Working Papers 0112, Banco de España.
    2. Meltem Gulenay Ongan, 2002. "The Seasonal Adjustment of the Consumer and Wholesale Prices : a Comparison of Census X-11, X-12 Arima and Tramo/Seats," Working Papers 0205, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

  21. Agustín Maravall & Cristophe Planas, 1996. "Estimation Error and the Specification of Unobserved Component Models," Working Papers 9608, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guégan, 2006. "Detection of the Industrial Business Cycle using SETAR Models," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(3), pages 353-371.
    2. Alessandro Rossi & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2002. "Volatility Estimation via Hidden Markov Models," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2002_14, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    3. Gianluca Caporello & Agustín Maravall & Fernando J. Sánchez, 2001. "Program TSW Reference Manual," Working Papers 0112, Banco de España.
    4. Kaloyan Ganev, 2004. "Statistical estimates of the deviations from the macroeconomic potential. An application to the economy of Bulgaria," Macroeconomics 0409010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Loayza, N. & Schmidt, K. & Serven, L., 1999. "What Drives Private Saving Across the World?," Papers 47, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
    6. Maravall, Agustín, 2000. "Notes on time serie analysis, ARIMA models and signal extraction," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10058, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    7. Guy Mélard, 2016. "On some remarks about SEATS signal extraction," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 53-98, March.
    8. Tommaso Proietti, 2019. "Predictability, Real Time Estimation, and the Formulation of Unobserved Components Models," CEIS Research Paper 455, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 22 Mar 2019.
    9. Maravall, Agustin, 2006. "An application of the TRAMO-SEATS automatic procedure; direct versus indirect adjustment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2167-2190, May.
    10. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2000. "Notes on Time Series Analysis, ARIMA Models and Signal Extraction," Working Papers 0012, Banco de España.
    11. Loayza, Norman & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Serven, Luis, 2000. "What drives private saving around the world?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2309, The World Bank.
    12. Daragh Clancy, 2013. "Output Gap Estimation Uncertainty: Extracting the TFP Cycle Using an Aggregated PMI Series," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(1), pages 1-18.

  22. Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Unobserved Components in Economic Time Series," Working Papers 9609, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Cubadda, Gianluca & Omtzigt, Pieter, 2003. "Small Sample Improvements in the Statistical Analysis of Seasonally Cointegrated Systems," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp03012, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    2. Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner Roeger, 2001. "Potential Output: Measurement Methods, "New" Economy Influences and Scenarios for 2001-2010 - A comparison of the EU-15 and the US," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 150, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    3. Julien Garnier & Bjørn-Roger Wilhelmsen, 2005. "The natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area: A joint estimation," Working Paper 2005/14, Norges Bank.
    4. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2016. "Neglected serial correlation tests in UCARIMA models," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 121-178, March.
    5. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2002. "A Complete Model-Based Interpretation of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter: Spuriousness Reconsidered," Working Papers 0208, Banco de España.
    6. Veronica John Muellbauer & Veronica David M Williams, 2012. "Credit conditions and the real economy: the elephant in the room," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Property markets and financial stability, volume 64, pages 95-101, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Giancarlo Bruno & Edoardo Otranto, 2006. "The choice of time interval in seasonal adjustment: A heuristic approach," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 393-417, June.
    8. Parigi, Giuseppe & Siviero, Stefano, 2001. "An investment-function-based measure of capacity utilisation.: Potential output and utilised capacity in the Bank of Italy's quarterly model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 525-550, December.
    9. Gianluca Caporello & Agustín Maravall & Fernando J. Sánchez, 2001. "Program TSW Reference Manual," Working Papers 0112, Banco de España.
    10. Siem Jan Koopman & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Constructing Seasonally Adjusted Data with Time‐varying Confidence Intervals," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(5), pages 509-526, December.
    11. Philip Kostov & John Lingard, 2005. "Seasonally specific model analysis of UK cereals prices," Econometrics 0507014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Luca Benati, 2001. "Band-pass filtering, cointegration, and business cycle analysis," Bank of England working papers 142, Bank of England.
    13. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Macroeconomics 9907006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2013. "Dynamic Specification Tests for Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers wp2013_1306, CEMFI.
    15. Fonteny, E., 2006. "La désaisonnalisation des séries d’agrégats monétaires et de crédit à la Banque de France : aspects théoriques et mise en oeuvre," Working papers 147, Banque de France.
    16. Robert A. Hart & J Malley (University of Glasgow), 1996. "Labor Productivity and the Cycle," Working Papers 9613, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    17. Maravall, Agustin, 2006. "An application of the TRAMO-SEATS automatic procedure; direct versus indirect adjustment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2167-2190, May.
    18. Agustín Maravall & Fernando J. Sánchez, 2000. "An Application of TRAMO-SEATS: Model Selection and Out-of-Sample Performance: the Swiss CPI Series," Working Papers 0014, Banco de España.
    19. Phinikarides, Alexander & Makrides, George & Zinsser, Bastian & Schubert, Markus & Georghiou, George E., 2015. "Analysis of photovoltaic system performance time series: Seasonality and performance loss," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 51-63.
    20. Monika Ruschinski, 2006. "Investigating the Cyclical Properties of World Trade," ifo Working Paper Series 30, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    21. Cécile Denis & Daniel Grenouilleau & Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner Röger, 2006. "Calculating potential growth rates and output gaps - A revised production function approach," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 247, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    22. Jin-Lung Lin & Tian- Syh Liu, 2003. "Modeling lunar calendar effects in taiwan," Econometrics 0306005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Flaig Gebhard, 2003. "Seasonal and Cyclical Properties of Ifo Business Test Variables / Saisonale und zyklische Eigenschaften von ifo Konjunkturtest Variablen," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 223(5), pages 556-570, October.
    24. del Barrio Castro, Tomas & Pons Fanals, Ernest & Surinach Caralt, Jordi, 2002. "The effects of working with seasonally adjusted data when testing for unit root," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 249-256, April.
    25. Cécile Denis & Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner Röger, 2002. "Production function approach to calculating potential growth and output gaps - estimates for the EU Member States and the US," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 176, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    26. Lawrence J. Christiano & Richard M. Todd, 2000. "The Conventional Treatment of Seasonality in Business Cycle Analysis: Does it Create Distortions?," NBER Technical Working Papers 0266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Gebhard Flaig, 2001. "Trend and Cycles in U.S. Real GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 607, CESifo.
    28. Alexandros E. Milionis, 2003. "Modelling Economic Time Series in the Presence of Variance Non-Stationarity: A Practical Approach," Working Papers 07, Bank of Greece.
    29. Gebhard Flaig & Claudia Plötscher, 2000. "Estimating the Output Gap Using Business Survey Data - A Bivariate Structural Time Series Model for the German Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 233, CESifo.
    30. Hecq, Alain, 1998. "Does seasonal adjustment induce common cycles?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 289-297, June.
    31. Agustín Maravall & Cristophe Planas, 1996. "Estimation Error and the Specification of Unobserved Component Models," Working Papers 9608, Banco de España.
    32. Yin-Wong Cheung & Frank Westermann, 2003. "Sectoral trends and cycles in Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 141-156, January.
    33. Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2003. "On detrending and cyclical asymmetry," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(3), pages 271-289.
    34. Fok, D. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Paap, R., 2005. "Performance of Seasonal Adjustment Procedures: Simulation and Empirical Results," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-30, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    35. Emanuela Marrocu, 2006. "An Investigation of the Effects of Data Transformation on Nonlinearity," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 801-820, November.
    36. Carmine Pappalardo & Gianfranco Piras, 2004. "Vector-Autoregression Approach to Forecast Italian Imports," ISAE Working Papers 42, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    37. Gebhard Flaig, 2003. "Time Series Properties of the German Monthly Production Index," CESifo Working Paper Series 833, CESifo.
    38. Rünstler, Gerhard & Sédillot, Franck, 2003. "Short-term estimates of euro area real GDP by means of monthly data," Working Paper Series 276, European Central Bank.
    39. Gebhard Flaig, 2002. "Unoberserved Components Models for Quarterly German GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 681, CESifo.

  23. Agustín Maravall & Daniel Peña, 1996. "Missing Observations and Additive Outliers in Time Series Models," Working Papers 9612, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Chin Wen Cheong & Ng Sew Lai & Nurul Afidah Mohmad Yusof & Khor Chia Ying, 2012. "Asymmetric Fractionally Integrated Volatility Modelling of Asian Equity Markets under the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 10(1), pages 70-84, January.
    2. Pedro Delicado & Ana Justel, 1997. "Forecasting with missing data: Application to a real case," Economics Working Papers 213, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    3. Gomez, Victor & Maravall, Agustin & Pena, Daniel, 1998. "Missing observations in ARIMA models: Skipping approach versus additive outlier approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-363, November.
    4. Syed Abul Basher & Stefano Fachin, 2014. "Investigating long-run demand for broad money in the Gulf Arab countries," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 199-214, July.
    5. Alanya-Beltran, Willy, 2022. "Unit roots in lower-bounded series with outliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    6. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Jamel Jouini & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2013. "On the relationship between world oil prices and GCC stock markets," Working Papers hal-00798037, HAL.
    7. Delicado, Pedro, 1995. "Predicción con datos faltantes: aplicación a un caso real," DES - Documentos de Trabajo. Estadística y Econometría. DS 3583, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.

  24. Victor Gómez & Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Programs TRAMO and SEATS, Instruction for User (Beta Version: september 1996)," Working Papers 9628, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Mario Forno & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin & Filippo Altissimo & Antonio Bassanetti, 2003. "Eurocoin: A Real Time Coincident Indicator Of The Euro Area Business Cycle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 242, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Ivashchenko, S., 2020. "Long-term growth sources for sectors of Russian economy," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 86-112.
    3. José M. Ortiz-Villajos & José J. Martos-Gómez, 2024. "Military Technology, Defense Spending and Modernization of the Armed Forces: The Case of Spain, 1891-1935," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 883-907, October.
    4. V. Ball & Carlos San-Juan-Mesonada & Camilo Ulloa, 2014. "State productivity growth in agriculture: catching-up and the business cycle," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 327-338, December.
    5. Ard Reijer, 2013. "Forecasting Dutch GDP and inflation using alternative factor model specifications based on large and small datasets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 435-453, April.
    6. Erdenebat Bataa & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2008. "Identifying Changes in Mean, Seasonality, Persistence and Volatility for G7 and Euro Area Inflation," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 109, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    7. Alonso, A.M. & Berrendero, J.R. & Hernandez, A. & Justel, A., 2006. "Time series clustering based on forecast densities," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 762-776, November.
    8. Carlomagno, Guillermo, 2014. "The pairwise approach to model a large set of disaggregates with common trends," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws141309, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    9. Medel, Carlos A., 2014. "A Comparison Between Direct and Indirect Seasonal Adjustment of the Chilean GDP 1986-2009 with X-12-ARIMA," MPRA Paper 57053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2014. "Does the Great Recession imply the end of the Great Moderation? International evidence," Working Papers hal-04141344, HAL.
    11. Bujosa, Marcos & Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Young, Peter C., 2007. "Linear dynamic harmonic regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 999-1024, October.
    12. Enache Cosmin, 2013. "Adverse Incentive Effects of the Unemployment Benefit Level in Romania," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 60(1), pages 54-66, July.
    13. Ambühl, Lukas & Loder, Allister & Bliemer, Michiel C.J. & Menendez, Monica & Axhausen, Kay W., 2020. "A functional form with a physical meaning for the macroscopic fundamental diagram," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 119-132.
    14. Pascual, Lorenzo, 1999. "Effects of parameter estimation on prediction densities a bootstrap approach," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6304, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    15. Eliana González & Luis F. Melo & Luis E. Rojas & Brayan Rojas, 2010. "Estimations of the natural rate of interest in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 626, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    16. Olivier Darne & Jean-Francois Hoarau, 2007. "The purchasing power parity in Australia: evidence from unit root test with structural break," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 203-206.
    17. Claude Diebolt & Magali Jaoul-Grammare, 2018. "Mesure du temps et temps de la mesure. Cliométrie des prix de gros en Allemagne avant la Première Guerre mondiale," Working Papers 08-18, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    18. Paulo Chávez & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Time changing effects of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Peru: empirical application using regime-switching VAR models with stochastic volatility," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(2), pages 505-544, May.
    19. Marczak, Martyna & Proietti, Tommaso, 2015. "Outlier Detection in Structural Time Series Models: the Indicator Saturation Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113137, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Ball, V. Eldon & Ulloa, Camilo A., 2011. "Agricultural productivity in the United States: catching-up and the business cycle," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1116, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    21. Daniel Dzikowski & Carsten Jentsch, 2024. "Structural Periodic Vector Autoregressions," Papers 2401.14545, arXiv.org.
    22. Burriel, Pablo & de Castro Fernández, Francisco & Garrote, Daniel & Gordo, Esther & Paredes, Joan & Pérez, Javier J., 2009. "Fiscal policy shocks in the euro area and the US: an empirical assessment," Working Paper Series 1133, European Central Bank.
    23. Maravall, Agustín, 2000. "Notes on time serie analysis, ARIMA models and signal extraction," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10058, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    24. Piotr Fiszeder & Sebastian Rowinski, 2012. "Modeling relations between selected macroeconomic processes and the Warsaw Stock Exchange index," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 10(3), pages 153-167, September.
    25. Carrera, Cesar & Ledesma, Alan, 2015. "Proyección de la inflación agregada con modelos de vectores autorregresivos bayesianos," Working Papers 2015-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    26. Olivier Darné & Jean-François Hoarau, 2006. "Testing the purchasing power parity in China," EconomiX Working Papers 2006-18, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    27. Alonso, Andres M. & Sipols, Ana E., 2008. "A time series bootstrap procedure for interpolation intervals," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 1792-1805, January.
    28. Claude DIEBOLT & Karine PELLIER, 2018. "Patents in the Long Run: Theory, History and Statistics," Working Papers of BETA 2018-20, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    29. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Characterising the Business Cycle for Accession Countries," Econometrics 0403006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Darne, O. & Levy-Rueff, O. & Pop, A., 2013. "Calibrating Initial Shocks in Bank Stress Test Scenarios: An Outlier Detection Based Approach," Working papers 426, Banque de France.
    31. Bušs, Ginters, 2009. "Comparing forecasts of Latvia's GDP using simple seasonal ARIMA models and direct versus indirect approach," MPRA Paper 16684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Marcus Scheiblecker, 2003. "Der Arbeitstagseffekt im vierteljährlichen Bruttoinlandsprodukt. Eine empirische Analyse anhand saisonaler Zeitreihenmodelle," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 76(11), pages 829-839, November.
    33. Theodosiou, Marina, 2011. "Forecasting monthly and quarterly time series using STL decomposition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1178-1195, October.
    34. Andreas Brunhart, 2019. "Der neue Konjunkturindex „KonSens“: Ein gleichlaufender, vierteljährlicher Sammelindikator für Liechtenstein," Arbeitspapiere 62, Liechtenstein-Institut.
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    37. Rainer Metz, 2011. "Do Kondratieff waves exist? How time series techniques can help to solve the problem," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 5(3), pages 205-238, October.
    38. Onorante, Luca & Pedregal, Diego J. & Pérez, Javier J. & Signorini, Sara, 2008. "The usefulness of infra-annual government cash budgetary data for fiscal forecasting in the euro area," Working Paper Series 901, European Central Bank.
    39. Maravall, Agustín, 1999. "Short-term and long-term trends, seasonal and the business cycle," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6291, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    40. Rafael Doménech & Víctor Gómez, 2005. "Ciclo económico y desempleo estructural en la economía española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 29(2), pages 259-288, May.
    41. Fonteny, E., 2006. "La désaisonnalisation des séries d’agrégats monétaires et de crédit à la Banque de France : aspects théoriques et mise en oeuvre," Working papers 147, Banque de France.
    42. Alexandros E. Milionis & Nikolaos G. Galanopoulos, 2020. "A study of the effect of data transformation and «linearization» on time series forecasts. A practical approach," Working Papers 280, Bank of Greece.
    43. Ghassan, Hassan & Alhajhoj, Hassan R. & Balli, Faruk, 2018. "Bi-Demographic Changes and Current Account using SVAR Modeling: Evidence from Saudi Arabia," MPRA Paper 93013, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Feb 2019.
    44. Gómez, Víctor & Breitung, Jörg, 1998. "The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition: A different perspective with new results," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,26, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    45. Pablo Galaso & Sandra Rodríguez, 2016. "A composite leading cycle indicator for Uruguay," Estudios Regionales en Economía, Población y Desarrollo. Cuadernos de Trabajo de la Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez. 31, Cuerpo Académico 41 de la Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez, revised 01 Feb 2016.
    46. Maravall, Agustin, 2006. "An application of the TRAMO-SEATS automatic procedure; direct versus indirect adjustment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2167-2190, May.
    47. Bógalo, Juan & Llada, Martín & Poncela, Pilar & Senra, Eva, 2022. "Seasonality in COVID-19 times," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    48. Carlos Capistrán & Daniel Chiquiar & Juan R. Hernández, 2019. "Identifying Dornbusch's Exchange Rate Overshooting with Structural VECs: Evidence from Mexico," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(5), pages 207-254, December.
    49. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2004. "Combining filter design with model based filtering (with an application to business cycle estimation)," Working Papers 0417, Banco de España.
    50. Phinikarides, Alexander & Makrides, George & Zinsser, Bastian & Schubert, Markus & Georghiou, George E., 2015. "Analysis of photovoltaic system performance time series: Seasonality and performance loss," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 51-63.
    51. Lya Paola Sierra & Luis Eduardo Gir n & Carolina Osorio, 2017. "Has Financialization in Commodity Markets Affected the Predictability in Metal Markets? The Efficient Markets Hypotheses for Metal Returns," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 15-22.
    52. Horváth, Áron & Sápi, Zoltán & Révész, Gábor, 2016. "Irodapiaci ciklusok jellemzése a hozam, a bérleti forgalom, az üresedés, a bérleti díjak és az új átadás alapján [Yields, take-up, vacancy, rents and new supply during office-market cycles]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 113-136.
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    54. Olivier Darne & Laetitia Ripoll-Bresson, 2004. "Exchange rate regime classification and real performances: new empirical evidence," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 21, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    55. Pino, Gabriel, 2013. "Forecasting disaggregates by sectors and regions : the case of inflation in the euro area and Spain," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws130807, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    56. Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles, 2008. "The impact of outliers on transitory and permanent components in macroeconomic time series," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(60), pages 1-9.
    57. Aslihan Atabek Demirhan, 2010. "Ramazan Ayinin Uretim Uzerindeki Etkisi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1014, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    58. Pavel Vidal Alejandro & Lya Paola Sierra Suárez & Johana Sanabria Dominguez & Jaime Andres Collazos Rodríguez, 2015. "Indicador mensual de actividad económica (IMAE) para el Valle del Cauca," Borradores de Economia 900, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    59. Andrawis, Robert R. & Atiya, Amir F. & El-Shishiny, Hisham, 2011. "Forecast combinations of computational intelligence and linear models for the NN5 time series forecasting competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 672-688, July.
    60. Aaron Levi Garavito-Acosta & Maria Mercedes Collazos-Gaitan & Manuel Dario Hernandez-Bejarano & Enrique Montes-Uribe, 2019. "Migración internacional y determinantes de las remesas de trabajadores en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1066, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    61. Thornton, Michael A., 2013. "Removing seasonality under a changing regime: Filtering new car sales," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 4-14.
    62. Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles, 2011. "Large shocks in U.S. macroeconomic time series: 1860-1988," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 5(1), pages 79-100, January.
    63. Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Thomas Url, 2022. "Nowcasting and monitoring SDG 8," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 313-345, May.
    64. Capistrán Carlos & Constandse Christian & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2009. "Using Seasonal Models to Forecast Short-Run Inflation in Mexico," Working Papers 2009-05, Banco de México.
    65. Kirchner, Robert, 1999. "Auswirkungen des neuen Saisonbereinigungsverfahrens Census X-12-ARIMA auf die aktuelle Wirtschaftsanalyse in Deutschland," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1999,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    66. Cesar Carrera & Alan Ledesma, 2015. "Aggregate Inflation Forecast with Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 50, Peruvian Economic Association.
    67. Nucci, Francesco & Pozzolo, Alberto F., 2001. "Investment and the exchange rate: An analysis with firm-level panel data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 259-283, February.
    68. Bell William.R., 2017. "Unit Root Properties of Seasonal Adjustment and Related Filters: Special Cases," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 33(1), pages 1-14, March.
    69. Vilar, J.A. & Alonso, A.M. & Vilar, J.M., 2010. "Non-linear time series clustering based on non-parametric forecast densities," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2850-2865, November.
    70. Marczak, Martyna & Gómez, Víctor, 2012. "Cyclicality of real wages in the USA and Germany: New insights from wavelet analysis," FZID Discussion Papers 50-2012, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).
    71. Edoardo Otrano & Umberto Triacca, 2007. "Testing for Equal Predictability of Stationary ARMA Processes," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1091-1108.
    72. Ortiz-Villajos, José M., 2024. "Dynamics of innovation over time: Evidence from the Spanish business elite," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 378-394.
    73. Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Thomas Url, 2019. "Monitoring and Nowcasting Sustainable Development Goals. A Case Study for Austria," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 66635, January.
    74. Deicy J. Cristiano-Botia & Manuel Dario Hernandez-Bejarano & Mario A. Ramos-Veloza, 2021. "Labor Market Indicator for Colombia (LMI)," Borradores de Economia 1152, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    75. Fok, D. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Paap, R., 2005. "Performance of Seasonal Adjustment Procedures: Simulation and Empirical Results," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-30, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    76. Perez, Javier J., 2007. "Leading indicators for euro area government deficits," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 259-275.
    77. Maravall, Agustín, 1999. "Seasonal outliers in time series," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6333, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    78. Guerrero, Víctor & Islas C., Alejandro & Poncela, Pilar & Rodríguez, Julio & Sánchez-Mangas, Rocío, 2014. "Mexico: Combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    79. Hassan Belkacem Ghassan & Hassan Rafdan Al-Hajhoj & Faruk Balli, 2019. "Bi-Demographic Changes and Current Account using SVAR Modeling: Evidence from Saudi Economy," Working Papers hal-01742574, HAL.
    80. Szász, Levente & Bálint, Csaba & Csíki, Ottó & Nagy, Bálint Zsolt & Rácz, Béla-Gergely & Csala, Dénes & Harris, Lloyd C., 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on the evolution of online retail: The pandemic as a window of opportunity," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    81. Maravall, Agustín, 2000. "An application of tramo-seats: changes in seasonality and current trend-cycle assesment: the german retail trade turnover series," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10010, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    82. Pedro M.D.C.B. Gouveia & Denise R. Osborn & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2008. "Comparing Seasonal Forecasts of Industrial Production," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 102, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    83. Artis, Michael & Nachane, Dilip M & Hoffmann, Mathias & Clavel, Jose Garcia, 2007. "Analyzing Strongly Periodic Series in the Frequency Domain: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches with Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 6517, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    84. Proietti, Tommaso, 2005. "New algorithms for dating the business cycle," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 477-498, April.
    85. Hassan B. Ghassan & Hassan R. Al-Hajhoj & Faruk Balli, 2018. "Bi-Demographic Changes and Current Account using SVAR Modeling," Papers 1803.11161, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2019.
    86. Marcos Bujosa & Antonio García Ferrer & Peter Young, 2002. "An ARMA Representation of Unobserved Component Models under Generalized Random Walk Specifications: New Algorithms and Examples," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0204, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    87. Sergey M. Ivashchenko, 2019. "DSGE Models: Problem of Trends," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 2, pages 81-95, April.
    88. Escario, Regina & Gadea, María Dolores & Sabaté, Marcela, 2012. "Multicointegration, seigniorage and fiscal sustainability. Spain 1857–2000," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 270-283.

  25. Fiorentini, G. & Maravall, A., 1995. "Unobserved Components in ARCH Models: An Application to Seasonal Adjustment," Papers 9509, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.

    Cited by:

    1. Siem Jan Koopman & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Constructing Seasonally Adjusted Data with Time‐varying Confidence Intervals," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(5), pages 509-526, December.
    2. Charles, Amelie & Darne, Olivier, 2006. "Large shocks and the September 11th terrorist attacks on international stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 683-698, July.
    3. Carnero, María Ángeles, 2001. "Outliers and conditional autoregressive heteroscedasticity in time series," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws010704, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    4. Calzolari, Giorgio & Fiorentini, Gabriele, 1994. "Conditional heteroskedasticity in nonlinear simultaneous equations," MPRA Paper 24428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Fonteny, E., 2006. "La désaisonnalisation des séries d’agrégats monétaires et de crédit à la Banque de France : aspects théoriques et mise en oeuvre," Working papers 147, Banque de France.
    6. Charles, Amelie & Darne, Olivier, 2005. "Outliers and GARCH models in financial data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 347-352, March.
    7. Broto, Carmen, 2003. "Unobserved component models with asymmetric conditional variances," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws032003, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    8. K. Triantafyllopoulos, 2008. "Multivariate stochastic volatility with Bayesian dynamic linear models," Papers 0802.0214, arXiv.org.

  26. Agustin Maravall & David A. Pierce, 1984. "The transmission of data noise into policy noise in monetary control," Special Studies Papers 184, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Peter Christoffersen & Eric Ghysels & Norman Swanson, 2000. "Let's Get "Real" About Using Economic Data," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1004, Econometric Society.
    2. Aguirre, Idoia & Vázquez, Jesús, 2018. "Inflation monitoring in real time: A comparative analysis of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 200-209.
    3. F. Javier TRIVEZ & Angel Mauricio REYES & F. Javier ALIAGA, 2009. "MEXICAN MAQUILA INDUSTRY OUTLOOK. A Quantitative Space-Time Analysis," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    4. Jan Capek, 2014. "Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Reaction Functions: Do Real-Time Data Matter?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(6), pages 457-475, December.
    5. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Modeling data revisions: Measurement error and dynamics of "true" values," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 101-109, April.
    6. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2011. "Policy analysis in real time using IMF's monetary model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1696-1709, July.
    7. Dean Croushore, 2008. "Frontiers of real-time data analysis," Working Papers 08-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    8. Giampiero M. Gallo & Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Ex Post and Ex Ante Analysis of Provisional Data," Working Papers 141, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    9. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for marcoeconomists: does the data vintage matter?," Working Papers 99-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    10. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2002. "Is macroeconomic research robust to alternative data sets?," Working Papers 02-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    11. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2000. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists: does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 00-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    12. Peña, Daniel, 2020. "Agustín Maravall: An interview with the International Journal of Forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1241-1251.
    13. Chiu, Adrian & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "Did output gap measurement improve over time?," Discussion Papers 36, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    14. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
    15. Steven P. Cassou & C. Patrick Scott & Jesús Vázquez, 2018. "Optimal monetary policy revisited: does considering US real-time data change things?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(57), pages 6203-6219, December.
    16. Myles Callan & Eric Ghysels & Norman R. Swanson, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules with Model and Data Uncertainty," CIRANO Working Papers 98s-40, CIRANO.
    17. Baetje, Fabian & Friedrici, Karola, 2016. "Does cross-sectional forecast dispersion proxy for macroeconomic uncertainty? New empirical evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 38-43.
    18. Vázquez, Jesús & María-Dolores, Ramón & Londoño, Juan M., 2012. "The Effect of Data Revisions on the Basic New Keynesian Model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 235-249.

  27. Agustin Maravall & David A. Pierce, 1980. "Errors in preliminary money stock data and monetary aggregate targeting," Special Studies Papers 152, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1), pages 173-224.

Articles

  1. McElroy Tucker S. & Maravall Agustin, 2014. "Optimal Signal Extraction with Correlated Components," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 237-273, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Webel, Karsten, 2022. "A review of some recent developments in the modelling and seasonal adjustment of infra-monthly time series," Discussion Papers 31/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Tommaso Proietti, 2019. "Predictability, Real Time Estimation, and the Formulation of Unobserved Components Models," CEIS Research Paper 455, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 22 Mar 2019.

  2. Maravall, A. & del Rio, A., 2007. "Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 975-998, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Maravall, Agustin, 2006. "An application of the TRAMO-SEATS automatic procedure; direct versus indirect adjustment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2167-2190, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Kaiser, Regina & Maravall, Agustin, 2005. "Combining filter design with model-based filtering (with an application to business-cycle estimation)," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 691-710.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Maravall, Agustin & Planas, Christophe, 1999. "Estimation error and the specification of unobserved component models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 325-353, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 1999. "Estimation of the business cycle: A modified Hodrick-Prescott filter," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 175-206.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Maravall, Agustin, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program: Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 155-160, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Webel, Karsten, 2016. "A data-driven selection of an appropriate seasonal adjustment approach," Discussion Papers 07/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.

  8. Gomez, Victor & Maravall, Agustin & Pena, Daniel, 1998. "Missing observations in ARIMA models: Skipping approach versus additive outlier approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-363, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Qian, Hang, 2012. "Essays on statistical inference with imperfectly observed data," ISU General Staff Papers 201201010800003618, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Jurgen A. Doornik & Marius Ooms, 2003. "Multimodality in the GARCH Regression Model," Economics Papers 2003-W20, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    3. Brunhes-Lesage, V. & Darné, O., 2008. "Why calculate a business sentiment indicator for services?," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 13, pages 21-30, Autumn.
    4. Gianluca Caporello & Agustín Maravall & Fernando J. Sánchez, 2001. "Program TSW Reference Manual," Working Papers 0112, Banco de España.
    5. Andy Lee & John Yick & Yer Van Hui, 2001. "Sensitivity of the portmanteau statistic in time series modeling," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 691-702.
    6. Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos & Visschers, Ludo, 2020. "Unemployment and Endogenous Reallocation over the Business Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 13307, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Alonso, Andres M. & Sipols, Ana E., 2008. "A time series bootstrap procedure for interpolation intervals," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 1792-1805, January.
    8. Maravall, Agustin, 2006. "An application of the TRAMO-SEATS automatic procedure; direct versus indirect adjustment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2167-2190, May.
    9. Shigeru Fujita & Christopher J. Nekarda & Garey Ramey, 2007. "The cyclicality of worker flows: new evidence from the SIPP," Working Papers 07-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    10. Zudi Lu & Y. Hui, 2003. "L 1 linear interpolator for missing values in time series," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 55(1), pages 197-216, March.
    11. Andrés Alonso & Ana Sipols & Silvia Quintas, 2013. "A single-index model procedure for interpolation intervals in time series," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 1463-1484, August.

  9. Maravall, Agustin & Mathis, Alexandre, 1994. "Encompassing univariate models in multivariate time series : A case study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 197-233, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Strohsal, Till & Proaño, Christian R. & Wolters, Jürgen, 2015. "Characterizing the Financial Cycle: Evidence from a Frequency Domain Analysis," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113143, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Cubadda, G. & Hecq, A.W. & Palm, F.C., 2007. "Studying co-movements in large multivariate models without multivariate modelling," Research Memorandum 032, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    3. Gianluca Caporello & Agustín Maravall & Fernando J. Sánchez, 2001. "Program TSW Reference Manual," Working Papers 0112, Banco de España.
    4. Maravall, A. & del Rio, A., 2007. "Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 975-998, October.
    5. Gianluca Cubadda & Alain Hecq & Franz C. Palm, 2008. "Studying Co-Movements in Large Multivariate Data Prior to Multivariate Modelling," CEIS Research Paper 125, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 14 Jul 2008.
    6. Gianluca Cubadda & Umberto Triacca, 2011. "An Alternative Solution to the Autoregressivity Paradox in Time Series Analysis," CEIS Research Paper 184, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Jan 2011.
    7. Galeano, Pedro & Tsay, Ruey S., 2004. "Outlier detection in multivariate time series via projection pursuit," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws044211, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    8. Agustín Maravall & Cristophe Planas, 1996. "Estimation Error and the Specification of Unobserved Component Models," Working Papers 9608, Banco de España.
    9. Nunzio Cappuccio & Diego Lubian, 2016. "Unit Root Tests: The Role of the Univariate Models Implied by Multivariate Time Series," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-11, April.
    10. Di Iorio, Francesca & Triacca, Umberto, 2011. "Testing for non-causality by using the Autoregressive Metric," MPRA Paper 29637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Siem Jan Koopman & John A. D. Aston, 2006. "A non-Gaussian generalization of the Airline model for robust seasonal adjustment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 325-349.

  10. Maravall, Agustin, 1993. "Stochastic linear trends : Models and estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 5-37, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
    2. Bujosa, Marcos & Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Young, Peter C., 2007. "Linear dynamic harmonic regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 999-1024, October.
    3. Andrew J. Filardo & Stephen F. Gordon, 1993. "Business cycle durations," Research Working Paper 93-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    4. Gianluca Caporello & Agustín Maravall & Fernando J. Sánchez, 2001. "Program TSW Reference Manual," Working Papers 0112, Banco de España.
    5. Mala Raghavan & George Athanasopoulos & Param Silvapulle, 2016. "Canadian monetary policy analysis using a structural VARMA model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 347-373, February.
    6. Tomás del Barrio Castro & Alain Hecq, 2016. "Testing for Deterministic Seasonality in Mixed-Frequency VARs," DEA Working Papers 76, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
    7. Chiara Peroni, 2012. "Testing linearity in term structures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(8), pages 651-666, April.
    8. Maravall, Agustín, 2000. "Notes on time serie analysis, ARIMA models and signal extraction," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10058, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    9. Luca Benati, 2001. "Band-pass filtering, cointegration, and business cycle analysis," Bank of England working papers 142, Bank of England.
    10. Raghavan, Mala & Athanasopoulos, George, 2019. "Analysis of shock transmissions to a small open emerging economy using a SVARMA model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 187-203.
    11. Proietti, Tommaso, 2007. "Signal extraction and filtering by linear semiparametric methods," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 935-958, October.
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    14. Ooms, M. & Hassler, U., 1996. "A Note on the Effect of Seasonal Dummies on the Periodogram Regression," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9629-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    15. Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides & Mr. Yasser Abdih, 2006. "FEER for the CFA Franc," IMF Working Papers 2006/236, International Monetary Fund.
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    17. Vinod, H. D. & Basu, Parantap, 1995. "Forecasting consumption, income and real interest rates from alternative state space models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 217-231, June.
    18. Víctor M. Guerrero & Adriana Galicia‐Vázquez, 2010. "Trend estimation of financial time series," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(3), pages 205-223, May.
    19. Bógalo, Juan & Llada, Martín & Poncela, Pilar & Senra, Eva, 2022. "Seasonality in COVID-19 times," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    20. Guerrero Víctor M. & García Andrea C. & Sainz Esperanza, 2013. "Rapid Estimates of Mexico’s Quarterly GDP," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 29(3), pages 397-423, June.
    21. Ooms, Marius & Hassler, Uwe, 1997. "On the effect of seasonal adjustment on the log-periodogram regression," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 135-141, October.
    22. Webel, Karsten, 2016. "A data-driven selection of an appropriate seasonal adjustment approach," Discussion Papers 07/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    23. Ermini, Luigi & Chang, Dongkoo, 1996. "Testing the joint hypothesis of rationality and neutrality under seasonal cointegration: The case of Korea," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 363-386, October.
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    25. Ms. Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Mr. Enrique Alberola Ila & Mr. Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, “Ins,” “Outs,” and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," IMF Working Papers 1999/175, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Ahmed Belhadjayed & Grégoire Loeper & Frédéric Abergel, 2016. "Forecasting Trends With Asset Prices," Post-Print hal-01512431, HAL.
    27. Tomas del Barrio Castro & Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 2013. "The trade balance in euro countries: a natural case study of periodic integration with a changing mean," Working Papers 1321, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    28. Jean-Marie Dufour & Tarek Jouini, 2011. "Asymptotic Distributions for Some Quasi-Efficient Estimators in Echelon VARMA Models," CIRANO Working Papers 2011s-25, CIRANO.
    29. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Jouini, Tarek, 2014. "Asymptotic distributions for quasi-efficient estimators in echelon VARMA models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 69-86.
    30. Tomas del Barrio Castro & Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 2013. "An analysis of the trade balance for OECD countries using periodic integration and cointegration," Working Papers 1320, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    31. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
    32. Juan J. Dolado & Miguel Sebastián & Javier Vallés, 1993. "Ciclical patterns of the spanish economy," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 17(3), pages 445-473, September.
    33. International Monetary Fund, 2002. "Lithuania: History and Future of the Currency Board Arrangement," IMF Working Papers 2002/127, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Gianluca Cubadda, 1999. "Common cycles in seasonal non‐stationary time series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 273-291, May.
    35. Victor M. Guerrero, 2008. "Estimating Trends with Percentage of Smoothness Chosen by the User," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 76(2), pages 187-202, August.
    36. Tomás Barrio & Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 2019. "Testing for Periodic Integration with a Changing Mean," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 45-75, June.
    37. Mala Raghavan & George Athanasopoulos & Param Silvapulle, 2009. "VARMA models for Malaysian Monetary Policy Analysis," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 6/09, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    38. Michael Pedersen, 2016. "Propagation of inflationary shocks in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 19(3), pages 004-025, December.
    39. Quilis, Enrique M., 2011. "Combining benchmarking and chain-linking for short-term regional forecasting," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws114130, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    40. Gerba, Eddie, 2015. "Have the US macro-financial linkages changed? The balance sheet dimension," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59886, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    41. Tomas del Barrio Castro & Denise R. Osborn, 2006. "A Random Walk through Seasonal Adjustment: Noninvertible Moving Averages and Unit Root Tests," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0612, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    42. Alain Hecq & Sean Telg & Lenard Lieb, 2017. "Do Seasonal Adjustments Induce Noncausal Dynamics in Inflation Rates?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-22, October.
    43. Michael Pedersen, 2010. "Propagation of Inflationary Shocks in Chile and an International Comparison of Progagation of Shocks to food and Energy Prices," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 566, Central Bank of Chile.
    44. Peter Young, 1999. "Recursive and en-bloc approaches to signal extraction," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 103-128.
    45. Víctor Guerrero & Fabio Nieto, 1999. "Temporal and contemporaneous disaggregation of multiple economic time series," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 8(2), pages 459-489, December.
    46. Proietti, Tommaso, 2005. "New algorithms for dating the business cycle," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 477-498, April.
    47. Marcos Bujosa & Antonio García Ferrer & Peter Young, 2002. "An ARMA Representation of Unobserved Component Models under Generalized Random Walk Specifications: New Algorithms and Examples," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0204, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.

  11. Maravall, Agustin, 1989. "On the dynamic structure of a seasonal component," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 81-91, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Webel, Karsten, 2016. "A data-driven selection of an appropriate seasonal adjustment approach," Discussion Papers 07/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.

  12. Maravall, Agustin, 1988. "A note on minimum mean squared error estimation of signals with unit roots," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 589-593.

    Cited by:

    1. Maravall, Agustín, 2000. "Notes on time serie analysis, ARIMA models and signal extraction," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10058, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    2. Eric Ghysels & Clive W.J. Granger & Pierre L. Siklos, 1997. "Seasonal Adjustment and Volatility Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 97s-39, CIRANO.
    3. Webel, Karsten, 2016. "A data-driven selection of an appropriate seasonal adjustment approach," Discussion Papers 07/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2004. "Combining filter design with model based filtering (with an application to business cycle estimation)," Working Papers 0417, Banco de España.
    5. Eric Ghysels & Clive W.J. Granger & Pierre L. Siklos, 1995. "Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data Filtering Process?," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-19, CIRANO.

  13. Maravall, Agustin, 1987. "Minimum Mean Squared Error Estimation of the Noise in Unobserved Component Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 115-120, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2016. "Neglected serial correlation tests in UCARIMA models," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 121-178, March.
    2. Gianluca Caporello & Agustín Maravall & Fernando J. Sánchez, 2001. "Program TSW Reference Manual," Working Papers 0112, Banco de España.
    3. Carmen Broto & Esther Ruiz, 2008. "Testing for conditional heteroscedasticity in the components of inflation," Working Papers 0812, Banco de España.
    4. Maravall, Agustín, 1992. "Missing observations and additive outliers in time series models," UC3M Working papers. Economics 2888, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    5. Broto, Carmen, 2006. "Using auxiliary residuals to detect conditional heteroscedasticity in inflation," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws060402, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    6. Maravall, Agustin, 2006. "An application of the TRAMO-SEATS automatic procedure; direct versus indirect adjustment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2167-2190, May.
    7. Webel, Karsten, 2016. "A data-driven selection of an appropriate seasonal adjustment approach," Discussion Papers 07/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Agustín Maravall Herrero & Domingo Pérez Cañete, 2011. "Applying and interpreting model-based seasonal adjustment. The euro-area industrial production series," Working Papers 1116, Banco de España.
    9. Agustín Maravall & Fernando J. Sánchez, 2000. "An Application of TRAMO-SEATS: Model Selection and Out-of-Sample Performance: the Swiss CPI Series," Working Papers 0014, Banco de España.
    10. Peña, Daniel, 2020. "Agustín Maravall: An interview with the International Journal of Forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1241-1251.
    11. Broto, Carmen, 2003. "Unobserved component models with asymmetric conditional variances," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws032003, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.

  14. Maravall, Agustin & Pierce, David A, 1986. "The Transmission of Data Noise into Policy Noise in U.S. Monetary Control," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 961-979, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  15. Maravall, Agustin, 1985. "On Structural Time Series Models and the Characterization of Components," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(4), pages 350-355, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Stephen Pollock, 2014. "Trends Cycles and Seasons: Econometric Methods of Signal Extraction," Discussion Papers in Economics 14/04, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    2. Tommaso Proietti & Marco Riani, 2009. "Transformations and seasonal adjustment," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 47-69, January.
    3. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2002. "A Complete Model-Based Interpretation of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter: Spuriousness Reconsidered," Working Papers 0208, Banco de España.
    4. Dadashova, Bahar & Ramírez Arenas, Blanca & McWilliams Mira, José & Izquierdo Aparicio, Francisco, 2014. "Explanatory and prediction power of two macro models. An application to van-involved accidents in Spain," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 203-217.
    5. Ester Ruiz & Fernando Lorenzo, 1997. "Prediction with univariate time series models: The Iberia case," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0298, Department of Economics - dECON.
    6. Philip Hans Franses & Yoshinori Kawasaki, 2004. "Do seasonal unit roots matter for forecasting monthly industrial production?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 77-88.
    7. Pollock, D. S. G., 2003. "Recursive estimation in econometrics," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 37-75, October.
    8. Harvey, Andrew C. & Delle Monache, Davide, 2009. "Computing the mean square error of unobserved components extracted by misspecified time series models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 283-295, February.
    9. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2004. "Combining filter design with model based filtering (with an application to business cycle estimation)," Working Papers 0417, Banco de España.
    10. Irma Hindrayanto & John A.D. Aston & Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms, 2010. "Modeling Trigonometric Seasonal Components for Monthly Economic Time Series," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-018/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    11. Yoshinori Kawasaki & Philip Hans Franses, 2003. "Detecting seasonal unit roots in a structural time series model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 373-387.
    12. Stephen Pollock, 2002. "Recursive Estimation in Econometrics," Working Papers 462, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    13. Fok, D. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Paap, R., 2005. "Performance of Seasonal Adjustment Procedures: Simulation and Empirical Results," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-30, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    14. José Antonio Camuñez Ruiz & Germán Ramos Campos, 2024. "Analysis of temporal evolution of tourist visits to the region of Morón de la Frontera (Spain). Two possible explanatory variables of this evolution," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 34(2), pages 17-31.
    15. Michele Caivano & Andrew Harvey & Alessandra Luati, 2016. "Robust time series models with trend and seasonal components," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 99-120, March.
    16. Danny Pfeffermann, 2022. "Time series modelling of repeated survey data for estimation of finite population parameters," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(4), pages 1757-1777, October.

  16. Maravall, Agustin, 1984. "Issues Involved with the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series: Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(4), pages 337-339, October.

    Cited by:

    1. William R. Bell & Eric Ghysels & Hahn Shik Lee, 1997. "Seasonal Time Series and Autocorrelation Function Estimation," CIRANO Working Papers 97s-35, CIRANO.

  17. Maravall, Agustin & Pierce, David A, 1983. "Preliminary-Data Error and Monetary Aggregate Targeting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(3), pages 179-186, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Swanson, Norman R. & White, Halbert, 1997. "Forecasting economic time series using flexible versus fixed specification and linear versus nonlinear econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 439-461, December.
    2. Peña, Daniel, 2020. "Agustín Maravall: An interview with the International Journal of Forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1241-1251.
    3. Myles Callan & Eric Ghysels & Norman R. Swanson, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules with Model and Data Uncertainty," CIRANO Working Papers 98s-40, CIRANO.

  18. Maravall, Agustin, 1983. "An Application of Nonlinear Time Series Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(1), pages 66-74, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Philip Rothman, "undated". "Higher-Order Residual Analysis for Simple Bilinear and Threshold Autoregressive Models with the TR Test," Working Papers 9813, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
    2. Pellegrini, Santiago & Ruiz, Esther & Espasa, Antoni, 2010. "Conditionally heteroscedastic unobserved component models and their reduced form," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 88-90, May.
    3. Zacharias Psaradakis & Marián Vávra, 2015. "Portmanteau Tests for Linearity of Stationary Time Series," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1514, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    4. Pena D. & Rodriguez J., 2002. "A Powerful Portmanteau Test of Lack of Fit for Time Series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 601-610, June.
    5. Rossen, Anja, 2014. "On the predictive content of nonlinear transformations of lagged autoregression residuals and time series observations," HWWI Research Papers 157, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    6. Sánchez, Ismael, 2009. "Graphical identification of TAR models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws097723, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    7. Liu, Yamei, 2000. "Overfitting and forecasting: linear versus non-linear time series models," ISU General Staff Papers 2000010108000014914, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Anthony E. Usoro, 2018. "Modelling of Nigeria gross domestic product using seasonal and bilinear autoregressive integrated moving average models," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(2), pages 1-1.
    9. Peña, Daniel, 2020. "Agustín Maravall: An interview with the International Journal of Forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1241-1251.
    10. Nwokike Chukwudike C. & Ugoala & Chukwuma B. & Obubu Maxwell & Uche-Ikonne Okezie O. & Offorha Bright C. & Ukomah Henry I., 2020. "Forecasting Monthly Prices of Gold Using Artificial Neural Network," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 1-2.
    11. Broto, Carmen, 2003. "Unobserved component models with asymmetric conditional variances," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws032003, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    12. Abdul-Rashid Abdul-Rahaman & Coleman Martha & Emmanuel Caesar Ayamba, 2024. "Exchange Rate Models and the Management of Forex Losses in Ghana: Modelling Exchange Rate Volatilities for Businesses," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 49(4), pages 679-703, November.
    13. Daniela Hristova, 2004. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of a Unit Root Bilinear Model with an Application to Prices," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 47, Society for Computational Economics.
    14. Anders Bredahl Kock & Timo Teräsvirta, 2010. "Forecasting with nonlinear time series models," CREATES Research Papers 2010-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    15. Mike Kraehenbuehl & Joerg Osterrieder, 2022. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis for Bitcoin in the context of neural networks," Papers 2208.07254, arXiv.org.
    16. Franses, P. H., 1990. "Seasonality, Outliers And Linearity," Econometric Institute Archives 272395, Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    17. Wilfredo Palma & Mauricio Zevallos, 2004. "Analysis of the correlation structure of square time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 529-550, July.
    18. Brunner, Allan D. & Hess, Gregory D., 1995. "Potential problems in estimating bilinear time-series models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 663-681, May.
    19. Pena, Daniel & Rodriguez, Julio, 2005. "Detecting nonlinearity in time series by model selection criteria," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 731-748.
    20. Brockett, Patrick L. & Witt, Robert C. & Golany, Boaz & Sipra, Naim & Xia, Xiaohua, 1996. "Statistical tests of stochastic process models used in the financial theory of insurance companies," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 73-79, May.

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