IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/empiri/v49y2022i2d10.1007_s10663-022-09533-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Nowcasting and monitoring SDG 8

Author

Listed:
  • Sandra Bilek-Steindl

    (Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO))

  • Thomas Url

    (Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO))

Abstract

We propose a nowcasting approach for indicators assigned to the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 8, calling for decent work and economic growth. The nowcasts of SDG indicators are based on dynamic factor models. In this mixed frequency framework, we exploit information from a comprehensive set of quarterly data to nowcast annually observed SDG indicators. For the model selection and specification search we evaluate the nowcast properties of the models based on a pseudo real-time data set. More recent information on SDGs can disclose a possible deviation from the desired path at an early stage. As an example, we present nowcasts for SDG objectives in Austria for the year 2020. The design of our assessment follows the method and quantitative rules suggested by Eurostat. SDG 8 indicators are highly related to the underlying economic situation and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are clearly visible in the results for 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Thomas Url, 2022. "Nowcasting and monitoring SDG 8," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 313-345, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:49:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s10663-022-09533-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-022-09533-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10663-022-09533-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10663-022-09533-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 188-205, September.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4vsqk7docb9nmophtp29pk68cr is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2013. "Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 195-237, Elsevier.
    4. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    5. repec:hal:journl:peer-00844811 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Victor Gómez & Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Programs TRAMO and SEATS, Instruction for User (Beta Version: september 1996)," Working Papers 9628, Banco de España.
    7. Paolo Agnolucci & Florian Flachenecker & Magnus Söderberg, 2017. "The causal impact of economic growth on material use in Europe," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 415-432, October.
    8. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    9. G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2013. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    10. Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Thomas Url, 2019. "Monitoring and Nowcasting Sustainable Development Goals. A Case Study for Austria," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 66635, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Beata Bieszk-Stolorz & Krzysztof Dmytrów, 2023. "Decent Work and Economic Growth in EU Countries—Static and Dynamic Analyses of Sustainable Development Goal 8," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-18, September.
    2. Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Claudia Kettner & Christine Mayrhuber, 2022. "Special Issue: Sustainability, Work and Growth in the Context of SDG 8," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 277-279, May.
    3. Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Thomas Url, 2023. "Frühzeitiges Monitoring der Ziele für eine nachhaltige und inklusive Entwicklung in Österreich – Aktualisierung 2023. Bewertung der Entwicklung von SDG 8 auf Basis der WIFO-Konjunkturprognose und Nowc," WIFO Research Briefs 11, WIFO.
    4. Blesse, Sebastian & Heinemann, Friedrich & Nover, Justus, 2022. "Bundesländerindex Familienunternehmen: Standortfaktoren innerhalb Deutschlands im Vergleich," Studien, Stiftung Familienunternehmen / Foundation for Family Businesses, number 264906, March.
    5. Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Thomas Url, 2022. "Frühzeitiges Monitoring der Ziele für eine nachhaltige und inklusive Entwicklung in Österreich. Bewertung der Entwicklung von SDG 8 auf Basis der WIFO-Konjunkturprognose und Nowcasts," WIFO Research Briefs 17, WIFO.
    6. Alexandra-Nicoleta Ciucu (Durnoi) & Corina Ioanăș & Marioara Iordan & Camelia Delcea, 2024. "Forecasting Sustainable Development Indicators in Romania: A Study in the European Context," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-21, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres, 2014. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 180-193.
    2. Hindrayanto, Irma & Koopman, Siem Jan & de Winter, Jasper, 2016. "Forecasting and nowcasting economic growth in the euro area using factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1284-1305.
    3. Bragoli, Daniela & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "A now-casting model for Canada: Do U.S. variables matter?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 786-800.
    4. Kaufmann, Daniel & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017. "Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 878-893.
    5. Juan Antolin-Diaz & Thomas Drechsel & Ivan Petrella, 2017. "Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 343-356, May.
    6. Caruso, Alberto, 2018. "Nowcasting with the help of foreign indicators: The case of Mexico," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 160-168.
    7. Larson, William D. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2022. "Nowcasting unemployment insurance claims in the time of COVID-19," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 635-647.
    8. Petrella, Ivan & Drechsel, Thomas & Antolin-Diaz, Juan, 2014. "Following the Trend: Tracking GDP when Long-Run Growth is Uncertain," CEPR Discussion Papers 10272, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Cláudia Duarte & Sónia Cabral, 2016. "Nowcasting Portuguese tourism exports," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    10. Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Carmine Pappalardo, 2017. "The role of indicator selection in nowcasting euro-area GDP in pseudo-real time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 79-99, August.
    11. Jack Fosten & Daniel Gutknecht, 2021. "Horizon confidence sets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 667-692, August.
    12. Fabian Krüger & Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2017. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts With External Nowcasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 470-485, July.
    13. Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2017. "Nowcasting U.S. Headline and Core Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(5), pages 931-968, August.
    14. Matteo Luciani & Madhavi Pundit & Arief Ramayandi & Giovanni Veronese, 2018. "Nowcasting Indonesia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 597-619, September.
    15. Juan Tenorio & Wilder Perez, 2024. "Monthly GDP nowcasting with Machine Learning and Unstructured Data," Papers 2402.04165, arXiv.org.
    16. González-Astudillo, Manuel & Baquero, Daniel, 2019. "A nowcasting model for Ecuador: Implementing a time-varying mean output growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 250-263.
    17. Wegmüller, Philipp & Glocker, Christian & Guggia, Valentino, 2023. "Weekly economic activity: Measurement and informational content," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 228-243.
    18. Fabian Krüger & Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2017. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts With External Nowcasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 470-485, July.
    19. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks," Staff Working Papers 14-39, Bank of Canada.
    20. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters & Alejandro Justiniano, 2016. "Forecasting Economic Activity with Mixed Frequency Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series WP-2016-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:49:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s10663-022-09533-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.