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Multicointegration, seigniorage and fiscal sustainability. Spain 1857–2000

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  • Escario, Regina
  • Gadea, María Dolores
  • Sabaté, Marcela

Abstract

Spanish long-run fiscal sustainability is analysed by using the multicointegration methodology. It permits the estimation of dynamic equilibrium relationships between flow and stock variables, and is here adjusted to fit the recurrent use of monetization. The results reveal that seigniorage was essential in guaranteeing long-run government solvency, and thus, highlight the relevance for Spain of its loss of monetary independence when joining the EMU in 1998. After a prosperous decade the lesson from the current crisis emerges even clearer: being deprived of monetization, structural measures for fiscal consolidation should not be postponed any longer if sustainability is to be maintained.

Suggested Citation

  • Escario, Regina & Gadea, María Dolores & Sabaté, Marcela, 2012. "Multicointegration, seigniorage and fiscal sustainability. Spain 1857–2000," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 270-283.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:34:y:2012:i:2:p:270-283
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2011.09.001
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    3. Triches, Divanildo & Sleimann Bertussi, Luis Antônio, 2017. "Multicointegração e sustentabilidade da política fiscal no Brasil com regime de quebras estruturais (1997-2015)," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 71(3), September.
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    5. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2013. "“The relationship between debt level and fiscal sustainability in OECD countries”," AQR Working Papers 201307, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Sep 2013.
    6. Ulrich Haskamp, 2014. "Was Spanish fiscal policy sustainable?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 273-286, May.
    7. Vicente Esteve & María A. Prats, 2021. "Financial bubbles and sustainability of public debt: The case of Spain," Working Papers 2111, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    8. Rafael Emilio Congregado & Vicente Esteve, 2021. "Long-run neutrality of money and inflation in Spanish economy, 1830-1998," Working Papers 2104, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Miguel A. Martin-Valmayor & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Nieves Carmona-González, 2024. "Persistence of the Sovereign Debt Components and Debt Sustainability: Some Evidence for the US and Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 11409, CESifo.
    10. Bystrov, Victor & Mackiewicz, Michał, 2020. "Recurrent explosive public debts and the long-run fiscal sustainability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 437-450.
    11. Josep Lluís Carrion-I-Silvestre, 2016. "Fiscal Deficit Sustainability of the Spanish Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(10), pages 1702-1713, October.
    12. Peter C.B. Phillips & Igor Kheifets, 2021. "On Multicointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2306, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    13. Neto, David, 2020. "Tracking fiscal discipline. Looking for a PIIGS on the wing," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 147-154.
    14. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2018. "Is there a bubble component in government debt? New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 467-486.
    15. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Testing for fiscal sustainability: New evidence from the G-7 and some European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-15.
    16. Akram, Vaseem & Rath, Badri Narayan, 2020. "What do we know about fiscal sustainability across Indian states?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 307-321.
    17. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2021. "Análisis de la sostenibilidad del sector exterior en la OCDE con técnicas de multicointegración," Working Papers 2112, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    18. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "Fiscal deficits under financial pressure and insolvency: Evidence for Italy, Greece and Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 730-749.
    19. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Laura Sauci, 2020. "Public finances in the EU-27: Are they sustainable?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 181-204, February.
    20. Congregado, Emilio & Esteve, Vicente, 2022. "Cointegration with structural changes and classical model of inflation in Spain, 1830–1998," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 376-388.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal sustainability; Multicointegration; Seigniorage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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