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Modelos Bvar: Especificación, Estimación E Inferencia

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  • Enrique M. Quilis(1)

    (Instituto Nacional de Estadística)

Abstract

. En este trabajo se analiza, en primer lugar, la especificación bayesiana de los vectores de autorregresiones (BVAR), tomando como punto de partida los modelos VAR no restringidos y las técnicas de estimación contraída. A continuación, se detalla su estimación como un caso especial del método de estimación mixta de Theil. El texto toma como hilo conductor la especificación a priori propuesta por Litterman así como su extensión al caso estacional elaborada por Raynauld y Simonato. Esta última abre interesantes perspectivas para el uso de estos modelos en el análisis de la coyuntura económica. El trabajo también examina la determinación de los hiperparámetros que controlan la especificación a priori (calibrado) junto con la relación existente entre los modelos BVAR y los VARMA. Finalmente, se expone el uso inferencial de los modelos BVAR para el análisis de cointegración.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrique M. Quilis(1), "undated". "Modelos Bvar: Especificación, Estimación E Inferencia," Working Papers 8-02 Classification-JEL :, Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.
    • Handle: RePEc:hpe:wpaper:y:2002:i:8
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